Northwestern Wildcats Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Northwestern Wildcats. All of these projections for Northwestern are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Northwestern Record and Rankings

Record: 10-7
Projected Final Record: 15.6-15.4

Big Ten Conference Record: 1-5
Projected Final Big Ten Record: 6.6-13.4
Projected Final Rank in the Big Ten: 11

Northwestern Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 60
RPI Rank: 106
NET Rank: 59
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-6 0-1 3-0 7-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Northwestern Wildcats a 11.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 14.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 74.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Northwestern’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 2.2%
NIT #2 Seed 3.2%
NIT #3 Seed 2.2%
NIT #4 Seed 2.2%
NIT #5 Seed 2.0%
NIT #6 Seed 1.6%
NIT #7 Seed 0.6%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Northwestern Wildcats. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Northwestern Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/8 208 New Orleans Home W 82-52
11/12 222 American Univ Home W 63-51
11/16 336 Binghamton Home W 82-54
11/22 59 Fresno St Neutral L 59-78
11/23 272 La Salle Neutal W 91-74
11/25 119 Utah Neutal W 79-57
11/28 82 Georgia Tech Home W 67-61
12/1 31 Indiana Away L 66-68
12/4 2 Michigan Home L 60-62
12/8 100 DePaul Home W 75-68
12/17 343 Chicago St Home W 88-46
12/21 22 Oklahoma Home L 69-76
12/30 278 Columbia Home W 75-54
1/2 4 Michigan St Away L 55-81
1/6 123 Illinois Home W 68-66
1/9 25 Iowa Home L 63-73
1/13 2 Michigan Away L 60-80
1/18 113 Rutgers Away 52.9%
1/22 31 Indiana Home 44.9%
1/26 30 Wisconsin Away 17.4%
1/29 15 Maryland Away 14.6%
2/4 86 Penn St Home 64.9%
2/10 25 Iowa Away 17.7%
2/13 113 Rutgers Home 79.2%
2/16 14 Nebraska Away 13.9%
2/20 33 Ohio St Away 19.6%
2/23 30 Wisconsin Home 44.3%
2/28 45 Minnesota Home 56.5%
3/3 123 Illinois Away 48.9%
3/6 33 Ohio St Home 47.4%
3/9 19 Purdue Home 41.8%