Northwestern Wildcats Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Northwestern Wildcats. All of these projections for Northwestern are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Northwestern Record and Rankings

Record: 1-0
Projected Final Record: 15.5-13.5

Big Ten Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Big Ten Record: 7.7-12.3
Projected Final Rank in the Big Ten: 12

Northwestern Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 67
RPI Rank: 218
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Northwestern Wildcats a 4.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 15.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 79.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Northwestern’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.6%
NIT #2 Seed 1.0%
NIT #3 Seed 3.8%
NIT #4 Seed 3.8%
NIT #5 Seed 5.4%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Northwestern Wildcats. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Northwestern Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/8 300 New Orleans Home W 82-52
11/12 214 American Univ Home 92%
11/16 347 Binghamton Home 99.4%
11/22 136 Fresno St Neutal 76.7%
11/28 96 Georgia Tech Home 79.7%
12/1 20 Indiana Away 14.3%
12/4 9 Michigan Home 42.2%
12/8 98 DePaul Home 79.9%
12/17 345 Chicago St Home 98.9%
12/21 74 Oklahoma Home 63.1%
12/30 270 Columbia Home 93.4%
1/2 12 Michigan St Away 13.9%
1/6 45 Illinois Home 54.4%
1/9 84 Iowa Home 71.8%
1/13 9 Michigan Away 15.5%
1/18 65 Rutgers Away 37.6%
1/22 20 Indiana Home 40.5%
1/26 39 Wisconsin Away 24.3%
1/29 37 Maryland Away 27.2%
2/4 17 Penn St Home 44.1%
2/10 84 Iowa Away 45.2%
2/13 65 Rutgers Home 61.8%
2/16 13 Nebraska Away 15%
2/20 8 Ohio St Away 13.7%
2/23 39 Wisconsin Home 51.5%
2/28 109 Minnesota Home 81.1%
3/3 45 Illinois Away 27.7%
3/6 8 Ohio St Home 39.5%
3/9 14 Purdue Home 46%