Northwestern Wildcats Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Northwestern Wildcats. All of these projections for Northwestern are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/19/2018.

Northwestern Record and Rankings

Record: 15-13
Projected Final Record: 16.6-14.4

Big Ten Conference Record: 6-9
Projected Final Big Ten Record: 7.6-10.4
Projected Final Rank in the Big Ten: 9

Northwestern Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 83
RPI Rank: 116
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-7 2-4 5-2 7-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.333 0.714 1.000

Our current projections give the Northwestern Wildcats a 0.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 8.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 91.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Northwestern’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.4%
NIT #3 Seed 0.2%
NIT #4 Seed 1.0%
NIT #5 Seed 3.6%
NIT #6 Seed 2.8%
NIT #7 Seed 0.6%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Northwestern Wildcats. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Northwestern Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 322 Loyola MD Home W 79-75
11/13 267 St Peter’s Home W 75-66
11/15 24 Creighton Home L 88-92
11/18 178 La Salle Uncasville, CT W 82-74
11/19 9 Texas Tech Uncasville, CT L 49-85
11/24 324 Sacred Heart Home W 81-50
11/28 122 Georgia Tech Away L 51-52
12/1 121 Illinois Home W 72-68
12/3 7 Purdue Away L 69-74
12/11 348 Chicago St Home W 96-31
12/14 164 Valparaiso Home W 84-50
12/16 102 DePaul Away W 62-60
12/19 No Rank Lewis Home W 85-48
12/22 37 Oklahoma Away L 78-104
12/30 257 Brown Home W 95-73
1/2 42 Nebraska Home L 55-70
1/5 46 Penn St Away L 63-78
1/10 96 Minnesota Home W 83-60
1/14 76 Indiana Away L 46-66
1/17 14 Ohio St Home L 65-71
1/20 46 Penn St Home W 70-61
1/23 96 Minnesota Away W 77-69
1/29 20 Michigan Away L 47-58
2/1 93 Wisconsin Away W 60-52
2/6 20 Michigan Home W 61-52
2/10 53 Maryland Away L 57-73
2/13 147 Rutgers Away L 58-67
2/17 4 Michigan St Home L 60-65
2/19 53 Maryland Home 50%
2/22 93 Wisconsin Home 65.6%
2/25 110 Iowa Away 48.2%