Notre Dame Fighting Irish Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. All of these projections for Notre Dame are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Notre Dame Record and Rankings

Record: 14-19
Projected Final Record: 14.0-19.0

ACC Conference Record: 3-15
Projected Final ACC Record: 3.0-15.0
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 15

Notre Dame Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 103
RPI Rank: 170
NET Rank: 112
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-10 0-4 3-4 10-1
Win % by Tier 0.091 0.000 0.429 0.909

Our current projections give the Notre Dame Fighting Irish a 0.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 4.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 94.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Notre Dame’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.4%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.6%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 2.4%
NIT #7 Seed 1.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Notre Dame Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 201 IL Chicago Home W 84-67
11/8 351 Chicago St Home W 89-62
11/14 141 Radford Home L 60-63
11/17 196 William & Mary Home W 73-64
11/20 160 Duquesne Home W 67-56
11/24 92 DePaul Home W 95-70
11/27 89 Illinois Home W 76-74
12/4 37 Oklahoma Neutral L 80-85
12/8 116 UCLA Away L 62-65
12/15 12 Purdue Neutal W 88-80
12/18 321 Binghamton Home W 69-56
12/20 291 Jacksonville Home W 100-74
12/29 340 Coppin St Home W 63-56
1/1 17 Virginia Tech Away L 66-81
1/5 36 Syracuse Home L 62-72
1/12 119 Boston College Home W 69-66
1/15 4 North Carolina Away L 69-75
1/19 33 NC State Home L 73-77
1/22 99 Georgia Tech Away L 61-63
1/26 1 Virginia Home L 55-82
1/28 2 Duke Home L 61-83
2/2 119 Boston College Away W 79-73
2/6 84 Miami FL Away L 47-62
2/10 99 Georgia Tech Home W 69-59
2/16 1 Virginia Away L 54-60
2/19 151 Wake Forest Home L 68-75
2/23 17 Virginia Tech Home L 59-67
2/25 10 Florida St Away L 61-68
3/3 25 Louisville Away L 61-75
3/6 31 Clemson Home L 62-64
3/9 121 Pittsburgh Away L 53-56
3/12 99 Georgia Tech Neutal W 78-71
3/13 25 Louisville Neutral L 53-75