Notre Dame Fighting Irish Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. All of these projections for Notre Dame are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Notre Dame Record and Rankings

Record: 11-6
Projected Final Record: 16.0-15.0

ACC Conference Record: 1-3
Projected Final ACC Record: 6.0-12.0
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 12

Notre Dame Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 78
RPI Rank: 119
NET Rank: 71
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-4 0-2 3-0 7-0
Win % by Tier 0.200 0.000 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Notre Dame Fighting Irish a 11.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 32.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 55.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Notre Dame’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #5 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 3.0%
NIT #2 Seed 4.4%
NIT #3 Seed 6.8%
NIT #4 Seed 6.0%
NIT #5 Seed 5.2%
NIT #6 Seed 5.4%
NIT #7 Seed 2.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Notre Dame Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 198 IL Chicago Home W 84-67
11/8 343 Chicago St Home W 89-62
11/14 118 Radford Home L 60-63
11/17 205 William & Mary Home W 73-64
11/20 141 Duquesne Home W 67-56
11/24 100 DePaul Home W 95-70
11/27 123 Illinois Home W 76-74
12/4 22 Oklahoma Neutral L 80-85
12/8 83 UCLA Away L 62-65
12/15 19 Purdue Neutal W 88-80
12/18 336 Binghamton Home W 69-56
12/20 292 Jacksonville Home W 100-74
12/29 348 Coppin St Home W 63-56
1/1 9 Virginia Tech Away L 66-81
1/5 43 Syracuse Home L 62-72
1/12 128 Boston College Home W 69-66
1/15 10 North Carolina Away L 69-75
1/19 36 NC State Home 44.1%
1/22 82 Georgia Tech Away 37.6%
1/26 1 Virginia Home 9.2%
1/28 5 Duke Home 19.1%
2/2 128 Boston College Away 47.8%
2/6 91 Miami FL Away 40.2%
2/10 82 Georgia Tech Home 62.1%
2/16 1 Virginia Away 2.3%
2/19 166 Wake Forest Home 84.2%
2/23 9 Virginia Tech Home 37.2%
2/25 26 Florida St Away 14.8%
3/3 23 Louisville Away 14.8%
3/6 42 Clemson Home 49.6%
3/9 62 Pittsburgh Away 35.5%