Notre Dame Fighting Irish Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. All of these projections for Notre Dame are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Notre Dame Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 18.7-12.3

ACC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final ACC Record: 8.3-9.7
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 11

Notre Dame Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 41
RPI Rank: 163
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 11 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 0-0 0-0 2-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Notre Dame Fighting Irish a 62.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 28.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 9.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Notre Dame’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #2 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 3.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 4.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 12.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 16.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 17.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 18.8%
NIT #2 Seed 4.8%
NIT #3 Seed 2.2%
NIT #4 Seed 1.4%
NIT #5 Seed 0.8%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Notre Dame Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 200 IL Chicago Home W 84-67
11/8 345 Chicago St Home W 89-62
11/14 118 Radford Home 85.7%
11/17 182 William & Mary Home 92.2%
11/20 175 Duquesne Home 91.8%
11/24 98 DePaul Home 83%
11/27 45 Illinois Home 60.1%
12/4 74 Oklahoma Neutral 59.3%
12/8 42 UCLA Away 38.2%
12/15 14 Purdue Neutral 40%
12/18 347 Binghamton Home 99.5%
12/20 343 Jacksonville Home 99.4%
12/29 349 Coppin St Home 99.5%
1/1 22 Virginia Tech Away 24.7%
1/5 26 Syracuse Home 55.9%
1/12 69 Boston College Home 74.8%
1/15 5 North Carolina Away 12.2%
1/19 25 NC State Home 55.1%
1/22 96 Georgia Tech Away 56.5%
1/26 4 Virginia Home 37.2%
1/28 1 Duke Home 19.4%
2/2 69 Boston College Away 47.8%
2/6 23 Miami FL Away 29%
2/10 96 Georgia Tech Home 83%
2/16 4 Virginia Away 11.7%
2/19 103 Wake Forest Home 83.5%
2/23 22 Virginia Tech Home 51.8%
2/25 10 Florida St Away 16%
3/3 38 Louisville Away 37.6%
3/6 21 Clemson Home 54.8%
3/9 177 Pittsburgh Away 74.8%