Notre Dame Fighting Irish Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. All of these projections for Notre Dame are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

Notre Dame Record and Rankings

Record: 21-15
Projected Final Record: 21.0-15.0

ACC Conference Record: 10-11
Projected Final ACC Record: 10.0-11.0
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 10

Notre Dame Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 52
RPI Rank: 70
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Next 4 Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-9 5-2 6-3 6-0
Win % by Tier 0.182 0.714 0.667 1.000

Our current projections give the Notre Dame Fighting Irish a 24.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 75.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Notre Dame’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 4.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 5.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 8.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 22.6%
NIT #2 Seed 28.8%
NIT #3 Seed 21.6%
NIT #4 Seed 2.6%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Notre Dame Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/11 106 DePaul Away W 72-58
11/13 242 Mt St Mary’s Home W 88-62
11/16 342 Chicago St Home W 105-66
11/20 No Rank Chaminade Lahaina, HI W 83-56
11/21 62 LSU Lahaina, HI W 92-53
11/22 18 Wichita St Lahaina, HI W 67-66
11/30 4 Michigan St Away L 63-81
12/3 293 St Francis NY Home W 71-53
12/5 152 Ball St Home L 77-80
12/9 228 Delaware Away W 92-68
12/16 81 Indiana Indianapolis, IN L 77-80
12/19 316 Dartmouth Home W 97-87
12/21 182 SE Louisiana Home W 86-50
12/30 114 Georgia Tech Home W 68-59
1/3 38 NC State Home W 88-58
1/6 54 Syracuse Away W 51-49
1/10 114 Georgia Tech Away L 53-60
1/13 10 North Carolina Home L 68-69
1/16 33 Louisville Home L 78-82
1/20 20 Clemson Away L 58-67
1/27 27 Virginia Tech Home L 75-80
1/29 3 Duke Away L 66-88
2/3 38 NC State Away L 58-76
2/6 71 Boston College Home W 96-85
2/10 36 Florida St Home W 84-69
2/12 10 North Carolina Away L 66-83
2/17 71 Boston College Away W 84-67
2/19 30 Miami FL Home L 74-77
2/24 115 Wake Forest Away W 76-71
2/28 217 Pittsburgh Home W 73-56
3/3 1 Virginia Away L 57-62
3/6 217 Pittsburgh Brooklyn, NY W 67-64
3/7 27 Virginia Tech Brooklyn, NY W 71-65
3/8 3 Duke Brooklyn, NY L 70-88
3/13 261 Hampton Home W 84-63
3/17 50 Penn St Home L 63-73