Oklahoma Sooners Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Oklahoma Sooners. All of these projections for Oklahoma are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

Oklahoma Record and Rankings

Record: 18-14
Projected Final Record: 18.0-14.0

Big 12 Conference Record: 8-11
Projected Final Big 12 Record: 8.0-11.0
Projected Final Rank in the Big 12: 9

Oklahoma Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 40
RPI Rank: 48
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 11 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 6-9 3-3 3-1 6-0
Win % by Tier 0.400 0.500 0.750 1.000

Our current projections give the Oklahoma Sooners a 71.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 28.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Oklahoma’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 3.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 6.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 3.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 6.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 5.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 4.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 11.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 27.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 5.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 18.8%
NIT #2 Seed 6.8%
NIT #3 Seed 2.8%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Oklahoma Sooners. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Oklahoma Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/12 282 NE Omaha Home W 108-89
11/15 152 Ball St Home W 108-69
11/23 24 Arkansas Portland, OR L 83-92
11/24 273 Portland Portland, OR W 93-71
11/26 60 Oregon Portland, OR W 90-80
11/30 211 North Texas Home W 82-72
12/4 177 UT San Antonio Home W 97-85
12/8 39 USC Los Angeles, CA W 85-83
12/16 18 Wichita St Away W 91-83
12/19 345 Northwestern LA Home W 105-68
12/22 94 Northwestern Home W 104-78
12/30 22 TCU Away W 90-89
1/3 37 Oklahoma St Home W 109-89
1/6 13 West Virginia Away L 76-89
1/9 15 Texas Tech Home W 75-65
1/13 22 TCU Home W 102-97
1/16 25 Kansas St Away L 69-87
1/20 37 Oklahoma St Away L 81-83
1/23 7 Kansas Home W 85-80
1/27 49 Alabama Away L 73-80
1/30 35 Baylor Home W 98-96
2/3 32 Texas Away L 74-79
2/5 13 West Virginia Home L 73-75
2/10 92 Iowa St Away L 80-88
2/13 15 Texas Tech Away L 78-88
2/17 32 Texas Home L 66-77
2/19 7 Kansas Away L 74-104
2/24 25 Kansas St Home W 86-77
2/27 35 Baylor Away L 64-87
3/2 92 Iowa St Home W 81-60
3/7 37 Oklahoma St Kansas City, MO L 60-71
3/15 44 Rhode Island NCAA Tournament Pittsburgh PA L 78-83