Oklahoma Sooners Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Oklahoma Sooners. All of these projections for Oklahoma are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Oklahoma Record and Rankings

Record: 13-4
Projected Final Record: 21.2-9.8

Big 12 Conference Record: 2-3
Projected Final Big 12 Record: 9.3-8.7
Projected Final Rank in the Big 12: 6

Oklahoma Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 22
RPI Rank: 2
NET Rank: 27
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 4 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-4 8-0 4-0 0-0
Win % by Tier 0.200 1.000 1.000 0.000

Our current projections give the Oklahoma Sooners a 91.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 4.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 5.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Oklahoma’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 3.8%
NCAA #2 Seed 8.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 13.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 16.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 16.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 12.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 10.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 4.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 4.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.0%
NIT #2 Seed 1.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.4%
NIT #4 Seed 0.8%
NIT #5 Seed 0.4%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.2%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Oklahoma Sooners. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Oklahoma Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/9 206 UTRGV Away W 91-76
11/12 160 UT San Antonio Away W 87-67
11/18 37 Wofford Home W 75-64
11/21 46 Florida Neutal W 65-60
11/22 30 Wisconsin Neutral L 58-78
11/23 73 Dayton Neutal W 65-54
11/27 79 North Texas Home W 73-57
12/4 78 Notre Dame Neutal W 85-80
12/8 97 Wichita St Neutal W 80-48
12/15 126 USC Home W 81-70
12/18 54 Creighton Home W 83-70
12/21 60 Northwestern Away W 76-69
1/2 7 Kansas Away L 63-70
1/5 74 Oklahoma St Home W 74-64
1/8 8 Texas Tech Away L 59-66
1/12 27 TCU Home W 76-74
1/16 32 Kansas St Home L 61-74
1/19 39 Texas Away 48.9%
1/23 74 Oklahoma St Away 61.1%
1/26 106 Vanderbilt Home 87.3%
1/28 58 Baylor Home 81.1%
2/2 93 West Virginia Away 62.8%
2/4 18 Iowa St Home 56.5%
2/9 8 Texas Tech Home 48.5%
2/11 58 Baylor Away 57.1%
2/16 27 TCU Away 39.9%
2/23 39 Texas Home 69.1%
2/25 18 Iowa St Away 36.2%
3/2 93 West Virginia Home 84%
3/5 7 Kansas Home 44.5%
3/9 32 Kansas St Away 44.5%