Oklahoma Sooners Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Oklahoma Sooners. All of these projections for Oklahoma are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Oklahoma Record and Rankings

Record: 1-0
Projected Final Record: 14.4-14.6

Big 12 Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Big 12 Record: 7.7-10.3
Projected Final Rank in the Big 12: 8

Oklahoma Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 74
RPI Rank: 218
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Oklahoma Sooners a 11.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 62.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 25.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Oklahoma’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 4.4%
NIT #2 Seed 18.4%
NIT #3 Seed 18.8%
NIT #4 Seed 12.8%
NIT #5 Seed 7.8%
NIT #6 Seed 0.4%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Oklahoma Sooners. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Oklahoma Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/9 324 UTRGV Away W 91-76
11/12 141 UT San Antonio Away 65.3%
11/18 120 Wofford Home 79.7%
11/21 48 Florida Neutal 44.2%
11/27 110 North Texas Home 81.6%
12/4 41 Notre Dame Neutal 40.7%
12/8 88 Wichita St Home 73.8%
12/15 63 USC Neutral 46.5%
12/18 53 Creighton Home 58.2%
12/21 67 Northwestern Away 36.9%
1/2 6 Kansas Away 11.1%
1/5 87 Oklahoma St Home 64.5%
1/8 29 Texas Tech Away 23.3%
1/12 59 TCU Home 56.5%
1/16 46 Kansas St Home 56.5%
1/19 54 Texas Away 36.2%
1/23 87 Oklahoma St Away 43.5%
1/26 30 Vanderbilt Home 43.5%
1/28 83 Baylor Home 60.8%
2/2 44 West Virginia Away 35.1%
2/4 60 Iowa St Home 51.8%
2/9 29 Texas Tech Home 46%
2/11 83 Baylor Away 40.9%
2/16 59 TCU Away 35.9%
2/23 54 Texas Home 56.9%
2/25 60 Iowa St Away 30.1%
3/2 44 West Virginia Home 56.3%
3/5 6 Kansas Home 31.7%
3/9 46 Kansas St Away 35.9%