Ole Miss Rebels Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Ole Miss Rebels. All of these projections for Mississippi are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Mississippi Record and Rankings

Record: 13-3
Projected Final Record: 21.9-9.1

SEC Conference Record: 3-1
Projected Final SEC Record: 11.4-6.6
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 5

Mississippi Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 28
RPI Rank: 35
NET Rank: 28
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 7 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-3 0-0 5-0 6-0
Win % by Tier 0.400 0.000 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Ole Miss Rebels a 83.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 9.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 7.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Mississippi’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #4 Seed 4.8%
NCAA #5 Seed 9.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 10.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 13.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 15.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 11.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 7.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 3.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.2%
NIT #1 Seed 3.4%
NIT #2 Seed 1.8%
NIT #3 Seed 2.0%
NIT #4 Seed 1.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.8%
NIT #6 Seed 0.4%
NIT #7 Seed 0.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Ole Miss Rebels. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Mississippi Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 246 W Michigan Home W 90-64
11/16 49 Butler Away L 76-83
11/20 284 Nicholls St Home W 75-55
11/23 58 Baylor Neutal W 78-70
11/24 35 Cincinnati Neutral L 57-71
11/28 129 San Diego Home W 93-86
12/1 162 ULM Home W 83-60
12/8 172 Illinois St Away W 81-74
12/12 320 SE Louisiana Neutal W 69-47
12/16 261 Chattanooga Home W 90-70
12/21 323 MTSU Neutal W 74-56
12/29 285 FL Gulf Coast Home W 87-57
1/5 106 Vanderbilt Away W 81-71
1/9 16 Auburn Home W 82-67
1/12 29 Mississippi St Away W 81-77
1/15 21 LSU Home L 69-83
1/19 65 Arkansas Home 81.8%
1/22 50 Alabama Away 52.2%
1/26 18 Iowa St Home 52.6%
1/30 46 Florida Away 45.2%
2/2 29 Mississippi St Home 60.5%
2/6 98 Texas A&M Home 85.9%
2/9 84 Georgia Away 58.8%
2/13 16 Auburn Away 27.7%
2/16 87 Missouri Home 84.5%
2/19 90 South Carolina Away 60.1%
2/23 84 Georgia Home 83.5%
2/27 3 Tennessee Home 37.2%
3/2 65 Arkansas Away 55.7%
3/5 12 Kentucky Home 48.5%
3/9 87 Missouri Away 58.8%