Oregon Ducks Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Oregon Ducks. All of these projections for Oregon are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Oregon Record and Rankings

Record: 23-12
Projected Final Record: 23.0-12.0

Pac-12 Conference Record: 10-8
Projected Final Pac-12 Record: 10.0-8.0
Projected Final Rank in the Pac-12: 6

Oregon Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 57
RPI Rank: 45
NET Rank: 56
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 12 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 4-4 3-4 7-3 9-1
Win % by Tier 0.500 0.429 0.700 0.900

Our current projections give the Oregon Ducks a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Oregon’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 6.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 85.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Oregon Ducks. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Oregon Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 264 Portland St Home W 84-57
11/9 233 E Washington Home W 81-47
11/15 34 Iowa Neutral L 69-77
11/16 36 Syracuse Neutal W 80-65
11/20 198 WI Green Bay Home W 83-72
11/26 211 TX Southern Home L 84-89
12/1 9 Houston Away L 61-65
12/8 168 NE Omaha Home W 84-61
12/12 102 San Diego Home W 65-55
12/15 182 Boise St Home W 66-54
12/18 326 Florida A&M Home W 71-64
12/21 44 Baylor Away L 47-57
12/29 182 Boise St Away W 62-50
1/5 91 Oregon St Home L 72-77
1/10 116 UCLA Home L 84-87
1/13 120 USC Home W 81-60
1/17 108 Arizona Away W 59-54
1/19 62 Arizona St Away L 64-78
1/24 42 Washington Home L 56-61
1/27 200 Washington St Home W 78-58
1/31 96 Utah Away W 78-72
2/2 80 Colorado Away L 51-73
2/6 230 California Home W 73-62
2/10 135 Stanford Home W 69-46
2/16 91 Oregon St Away L 57-72
2/21 120 USC Away L 49-66
2/23 116 UCLA Away L 83-90
2/28 62 Arizona St Home W 79-51
3/2 108 Arizona Home W 73-47
3/6 200 Washington St Away W 72-61
3/9 42 Washington Away W 55-47
3/13 200 Washington St Neutal W 84-51
3/14 96 Utah Neutal W 66-54
3/15 62 Arizona St Neutal W 79-75
3/16 42 Washington Neutal W 68-48