Oregon Ducks Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Oregon Ducks. All of these projections for Oregon are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/19/2018.

Oregon Record and Rankings

Record: 17-10
Projected Final Record: 19.2-11.8

Pac-12 Conference Record: 7-7
Projected Final Pac-12 Record: 9.2-8.8
Projected Final Rank in the Pac-12: 8

Oregon Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 65
RPI Rank: 88
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-4 3-4 5-2 8-0
Win % by Tier 0.200 0.429 0.714 1.000

Our current projections give the Oregon Ducks a 8.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 37.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 54.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Oregon’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 6.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.4%
NIT #2 Seed 1.2%
NIT #3 Seed 4.8%
NIT #4 Seed 10.0%
NIT #5 Seed 12.2%
NIT #6 Seed 7.6%
NIT #7 Seed 1.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Oregon Ducks. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Oregon Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 342 Coppin St Home W 70-54
11/13 285 Prairie View Home W 100-67
11/17 341 Alabama St Home W 114-56
11/19 118 Ball St Home W 95-71
11/23 129 Connecticut Portland, OR L 63-71
11/24 102 DePaul Portland, OR W 89-79
11/26 37 Oklahoma Portland, OR L 80-90
12/1 59 Boise St Home L 70-73
12/8 204 Colorado St Home W 95-65
12/11 301 TX Southern Home W 74-68
12/13 157 Portland St Home W 95-84
12/16 80 Fresno St Away W 68-61
12/20 223 Cent Arkansas Home W 96-82
12/29 52 Utah Home L 56-66
12/31 95 Colorado Home W 77-62
1/5 107 Oregon St Away L 64-76
1/11 34 Arizona St Away W 76-72
1/13 18 Arizona Away L 83-90
1/18 51 USC Home L 70-75
1/20 43 UCLA Home W 94-91
1/27 107 Oregon St Home W 66-57
2/1 191 California Away W 66-53
2/3 90 Stanford Away L 61-96
2/8 69 Washington Home W 65-40
2/11 176 Washington St Home W 84-57
2/15 51 USC Away L 70-72
2/17 43 UCLA Away L 78-86
2/22 34 Arizona St Home 53.7%
2/24 18 Arizona Home 44.3%
3/1 176 Washington St Away 71.2%
3/3 69 Washington Away 53.7%