Oregon Ducks Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Oregon Ducks. All of these projections for Oregon are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Oregon Record and Rankings

Record: 10-6
Projected Final Record: 18.1-12.9

Pac-12 Conference Record: 1-2
Projected Final Pac-12 Record: 9.1-8.9
Projected Final Rank in the Pac-12: 6

Oregon Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 81
RPI Rank: 120
NET Rank: 74
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 1-3 3-0 6-1
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.250 1.000 0.857

Our current projections give the Oregon Ducks a 20.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 26.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 53.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Oregon’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 5.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 3.6%
NCAA #14 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.4%
NIT #2 Seed 2.2%
NIT #3 Seed 4.4%
NIT #4 Seed 4.0%
NIT #5 Seed 6.4%
NIT #6 Seed 5.6%
NIT #7 Seed 1.8%
NIT #8 Seed 0.4%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Oregon Ducks. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Oregon Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 289 Portland St Home W 84-57
11/9 297 E Washington Home W 81-47
11/15 25 Iowa Neutral L 69-77
11/16 43 Syracuse Neutal W 80-65
11/20 197 WI Green Bay Home W 83-72
11/26 185 TX Southern Home L 84-89
12/1 13 Houston Away L 61-65
12/8 194 NE Omaha Home W 84-61
12/12 129 San Diego Home W 65-55
12/15 154 Boise St Home W 66-54
12/18 316 Florida A&M Home W 71-64
12/21 58 Baylor Away L 47-57
12/29 154 Boise St Away W 62-50
1/5 57 Oregon St Home L 72-77
1/10 83 UCLA Home L 84-87
1/13 126 USC Home W 81-60
1/17 44 Arizona Away 25.2%
1/19 61 Arizona St Away 37.2%
1/24 41 Washington Home 50%
1/27 215 Washington St Home 91.1%
1/31 119 Utah Away 51.5%
2/2 108 Colorado Away 48.2%
2/6 226 California Home 91.8%
2/10 132 Stanford Home 80.4%
2/16 57 Oregon St Away 35.9%
2/21 126 USC Away 50.4%
2/23 83 UCLA Away 41.2%
2/28 61 Arizona St Home 59.2%
3/2 44 Arizona Home 51.5%
3/6 215 Washington St Away 64.5%
3/9 41 Washington Away 27.2%