Oregon Ducks Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Oregon Ducks. All of these projections for Oregon are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Oregon Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 24.5-5.5

Pac-12 Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Pac-12 Record: 13.9-4.1
Projected Final Rank in the Pac-12: 1

Oregon Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 15
RPI Rank: 32
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 4 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 2-0 0-0 0-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000

Our current projections give the Oregon Ducks a 84.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 5.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 9.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Oregon’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 7.6%
NCAA #4 Seed 26.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 19.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 12.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 9.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.8%
NIT #2 Seed 1.8%
NIT #3 Seed 0.8%
NIT #4 Seed 0.6%
NIT #5 Seed 0.6%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Oregon Ducks. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Oregon Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 226 Portland St Home W 84-57
11/9 203 E Washington Home W 81-47
11/15 84 Iowa Neutal 81%
11/20 286 WI Green Bay Home 98.8%
11/26 137 TX Southern Home 93.8%
12/1 33 Houston Away 55.9%
12/8 328 NE Omaha Home 99.4%
12/12 106 San Diego Home 92.6%
12/15 164 Boise St Home 97.1%
12/18 294 Florida A&M Home 98.9%
12/21 83 Baylor Away 63.4%
12/29 164 Boise St Away 87.3%
1/5 85 Oregon St Home 91.4%
1/10 42 UCLA Home 84.2%
1/13 63 USC Home 86.1%
1/17 24 Arizona Away 55.9%
1/19 56 Arizona St Away 59.5%
1/24 55 Washington Home 85.2%
1/27 142 Washington St Home 97.1%
1/31 43 Utah Away 60.5%
2/2 108 Colorado Away 78.2%
2/6 282 California Home 98.9%
2/10 66 Stanford Home 87.8%
2/16 85 Oregon St Away 68.3%
2/21 63 USC Away 61.5%
2/23 42 UCLA Away 58.5%
2/28 56 Arizona St Home 84.7%
3/2 24 Arizona Home 81.6%
3/6 142 Washington St Away 86.6%
3/9 55 Washington Away 60.1%