Oregon State Beavers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Oregon State Beavers. All of these projections for Oregon St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Oregon St Record and Rankings

Record: 11-6
Projected Final Record: 18.8-11.2

Pac-12 Conference Record: 3-2
Projected Final Pac-12 Record: 10.8-7.2
Projected Final Rank in the Pac-12: 4

Oregon St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 67
RPI Rank: 78
NET Rank: 69
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-3 1-1 5-2 5-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.500 0.714 1.000

Our current projections give the Oregon State Beavers a 16.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 53.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 30.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Oregon St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 5.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.2%
NIT #1 Seed 2.6%
NIT #2 Seed 6.0%
NIT #3 Seed 10.0%
NIT #4 Seed 10.6%
NIT #5 Seed 11.0%
NIT #6 Seed 10.0%
NIT #7 Seed 3.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Oregon State Beavers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Oregon St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 306 UC Riverside Home W 72-59
11/10 318 Wyoming Home W 83-64
11/16 92 Old Dominion Neutal W 61-56
11/18 71 Missouri Neutral L 63-69
11/19 111 Penn Neutal W 74-58
11/25 190 Long Beach St Away W 75-72
12/1 196 Missouri St Home W 101-77
12/9 64 St Louis Away L 61-65
12/15 122 Texas A&M Neutral L 64-67
12/17 189 Pepperdine Home W 82-67
12/21 116 Kent Home L 63-66
12/29 247 Central Conn Home W 80-59
1/5 79 Oregon Away W 77-72
1/10 109 USC Home W 79-74
1/13 96 UCLA Home W 79-66
1/17 59 Arizona St Away L 67-70
1/19 51 Arizona Away L 71-82
1/24 208 Washington St Home 92%
1/26 37 Washington Home 47.1%
1/31 113 Colorado Away 50.4%
2/2 119 Utah Away 52.9%
2/7 130 Stanford Home 81.6%
2/9 255 California Home 93%
2/16 79 Oregon Home 61.8%
2/21 96 UCLA Away 47.1%
2/23 109 USC Away 50%
2/28 51 Arizona Home 53.3%
3/3 59 Arizona St Home 57.5%
3/6 37 Washington Away 23.3%
3/9 208 Washington St Away 68.3%