Oregon State Beavers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Oregon State Beavers. All of these projections for Oregon St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 12/10/2018.

Oregon St Record and Rankings

Record: 6-2
Projected Final Record: 18.2-11.8

Pac-12 Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Pac-12 Record: 9.0-9.0
Projected Final Rank in the Pac-12: 7

Oregon St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 73
RPI Rank: 62
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-0 3-1 3-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.750 1.000

Our current projections give the Oregon State Beavers a 19.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 37.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 44.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Oregon St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 3.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 3.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 3.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.4%
NIT #1 Seed 5.8%
NIT #2 Seed 8.6%
NIT #3 Seed 5.6%
NIT #4 Seed 6.2%
NIT #5 Seed 6.0%
NIT #6 Seed 3.6%
NIT #7 Seed 1.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.2%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Oregon State Beavers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Oregon St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 301 UC Riverside Home W 72-59
11/10 221 Wyoming Home W 83-64
11/16 116 Old Dominion Neutal W 61-56
11/18 100 Missouri Neutral L 63-69
11/19 104 Penn Neutal W 74-58
11/25 205 Long Beach St Away W 75-72
12/1 200 Missouri St Home W 101-77
12/9 81 St Louis Away L 61-65
12/15 115 Texas A&M Neutral 63.2%
12/17 195 Pepperdine Home 91.8%
12/21 102 Kent Home 70.6%
12/29 191 Central Conn Home 89.4%
1/5 51 Oregon Away 29%
1/10 112 USC Home 76.7%
1/13 52 UCLA Home 56.3%
1/17 25 Arizona St Away 17.2%
1/19 32 Arizona Away 19.6%
1/24 179 Washington St Home 87.5%
1/26 44 Washington Home 51.8%
1/31 58 Colorado Away 35.9%
2/2 135 Utah Away 55.9%
2/7 87 Stanford Home 64.9%
2/9 170 California Home 86.1%
2/16 51 Oregon Home 55.5%
2/21 52 UCLA Away 33.6%
2/23 112 USC Away 48.5%
2/28 32 Arizona Home 47.8%
3/3 25 Arizona St Home 44.1%
3/6 44 Washington Away 28.6%
3/9 179 Washington St Away 61.1%