OVC Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Ohio Valley Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the OVC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 3/11/2018.

OVC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Murray St 26 5 26 5 18 2 18 2
2 Belmont 24 9 24 9 16 4 16 4
3 Austin Peay 18 14 18 14 13 7 13 7
4 Jacksonville St 21 12 21 12 12 8 12 8
5 Tennessee Tech 19 14 19 14 11 9 11 9
6 Tennessee St 15 15 15 15 10 9 10 9
7 E Illinois 12 19 12 19 8 12 8 12
8 SIUE 9 21 9 21 5 14 5 14
9 E Kentucky 11 20 11 20 5 13 5 13
10 TN Martin 10 21 10 21 5 13 5 13
11 Morehead St 8 21 8 21 4 14 4 14
12 SE Missouri St 14 17 14 17 8 10 8 10

Projected OVC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Ohio Valley Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Murray St 12 3.447

OVC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each OVC team. The Ohio Valley Conference uses a little bit of a strange structure for it’s Men’s Basketball Tournament. Eight teams of the twleve in the conference advance to play in the tournament. The top two seeds are given byes into the Semifinals, while the three and four seeds are given byes into the Quarterfinals. Thus, seeds five through eight would have to win four games to take the tournament while the top two seeds would only have to win two games.

Regular Season Champion: Murray St
Tournament Site: Ford Center (Evansville, IN)
1st Round: February 28th, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 1st, 2018
Semifinals: March 2nd, 2018
Finals: March 3rd, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Murray St
100%
100%
100%
100%
2
Belmont
100%
100%
100%
0%
3
Austin Peay
100%
100%
0%
0%
4
Jacksonville St
100%
100%
0%
0%
5
Tennessee Tech
100%
0%
0%
0%
6
Tennessee St
0%
0%
0%
0%
7
E Illinois
100%
0%
0%
0%
8
SIUE
0%
0%
0%
0%

OVC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC