OVC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Ohio Valley Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the OVC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/10/2018.

OVC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Murray St 5 1 23.6 5.4 0 0 15.2 2.8
2 Belmont 7 1 23.5 5.5 0 0 15.1 2.9
3 Jacksonville St 5 3 19.9 11.1 0 0 12.1 5.9
4 Austin Peay 5 4 17.6 12.4 0 0 11 7
5 E Kentucky 6 4 16 15 0 0 8.9 9.1
6 E Illinois 5 5 14.8 16.2 0 0 8.7 9.3
7 SE Missouri St 5 5 12.9 18.1 0 0 7.6 10.4
8 Morehead St 3 5 11.1 19.9 0 0 7.4 10.6
9 Tennessee St 3 5 10.6 19.4 0 0 6.8 11.2
10 TN Martin 3 4 10.7 18.3 0 0 6 12
11 SIUE 2 5 8.4 20.6 0 0 5.1 12.9
12 Tennessee Tech 3 7 7.9 23.1 0 0 4.1 13.9

Projected OVC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Ohio Valley Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Belmont 12 4.342

Projected OVC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Ohio Valley Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Murray St 37% 49% 10% 4% 100%
Belmont 53% 37% 10% 0% 100%
Jacksonville St 9% 8% 47% 22% 100%
Austin Peay 1% 5% 24% 44% 98%
E Kentucky 0% 1% 3% 8% 86%
E Illinois 0% 0% 3% 6% 81%
SE Missouri St 0% 0% 2% 11% 68%
Morehead St 0% 0% 0% 1% 54%
Tennessee St 0% 0% 0% 4% 55%
TN Martin 0% 0% 1% 0% 29%
SIUE 0% 0% 0% 0% 17%
Tennessee Tech 0% 0% 0% 0% 12%

OVC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Ohio Valley Conference uses a little bit of a strange structure for it’s Men’s Basketball Tournament. Eight teams of the twleve in the conference advance to play in the tournament. The top two seeds are given byes into the Semifinals, while the three and four seeds are given byes into the Quarterfinals. Thus, seeds five through eight would have to win four games to take the tournament while the top two seeds would only have to win two games.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Ford Center (Evansville, IN)
1st Round: March 6th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 7th, 2019
Semifinals: March 8th, 2019
Finals: March 9th, 2019

Coming Soon!

OVC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
1/3 E Kentucky 29% Austin Peay 71% Austin Peay wins by 7
1/3 Jacksonville St 14.1% Belmont 85.9% Belmont wins by 11
1/3 Morehead St 6.6% Murray St 93.4% Murray St wins by 16
1/3 SE Missouri St 57.1% SIUE 42.9% SE Missouri St wins by 3
1/3 TN Martin 20.3% E Illinois 79.7% E Illinois wins by 9
1/3 Tennessee Tech 18.4% Tennessee St 81.6% Tennessee St wins by 9
1/5 Morehead St 18.4% Austin Peay 81.6% Austin Peay wins by 9
1/5 Tennessee Tech 1.3% Belmont 98.7% Belmont wins by 23
1/5 SIUE 15.8% E Illinois 84.2% E Illinois wins by 11
1/5 E Kentucky 7.8% Murray St 92.2% Murray St wins by 15
1/5 TN Martin 28.2% SE Missouri St 71.8% SE Missouri St wins by 7
1/5 Jacksonville St 69.1% Tennessee St 30.9% Jacksonville St wins by 6
1/10 Austin Peay 57.8% SE Missouri St 42.2% Austin Peay wins by 3
1/10 Morehead St 6.6% Belmont 93.4% Belmont wins by 16
1/10 E Illinois 16.2% Jacksonville St 83.8% Jacksonville St wins by 10
1/10 SIUE 47.1% Tennessee Tech 52.9% Tennessee Tech wins by 1
1/10 Murray St 90.8% TN Martin 9.2% Murray St wins by 13
1/10 E Kentucky 56.9% Tennessee St 43.1% E Kentucky wins by 3

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC