OVC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Ohio Valley Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the OVC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

OVC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Belmont 21 4 24.7 4.3 12 2 15.7 2.3
2 Murray St 21 4 24.5 4.5 12 2 15.5 2.5
3 Jacksonville St 19 8 22.3 8.7 11 3 14.3 3.7
4 Austin Peay 19 8 21.7 9.3 11 3 13.7 4.3
5 E Illinois 14 13 15.7 15.3 7 7 8.7 9.3
6 Morehead St 10 17 11.3 19.7 6 8 7.3 10.7
7 Tennessee St 8 18 10 20 5 9 7 11
8 TN Martin 10 15 11 18 5 9 6 12
9 E Kentucky 11 16 12.7 18.3 4 10 5.7 12.3
10 SIUE 8 18 9.1 20.9 4 10 5.1 12.9
11 SE Missouri St 9 18 9.8 21.2 4 10 4.8 13.2
12 Tennessee Tech 7 20 8.4 22.6 3 11 4.4 13.6

Projected OVC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Ohio Valley Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Belmont 12 3.907

Projected OVC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Ohio Valley Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Belmont 55% 32% 13% 0% 100%
Murray St 42% 42% 10% 6% 100%
Jacksonville St 2% 18% 57% 23% 100%
Austin Peay 1% 8% 20% 71% 100%
E Illinois 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Morehead St 0% 0% 0% 0% 94%
Tennessee St 0% 0% 0% 0% 82%
TN Martin 0% 0% 0% 0% 54%
E Kentucky 0% 0% 0% 0% 40%
SIUE 0% 0% 0% 0% 19%
SE Missouri St 0% 0% 0% 0% 3%
Tennessee Tech 0% 0% 0% 0% 8%

OVC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Ohio Valley Conference uses a little bit of a strange structure for it’s Men’s Basketball Tournament. Eight teams of the twleve in the conference advance to play in the tournament. The top two seeds are given byes into the Semifinals, while the three and four seeds are given byes into the Quarterfinals. Thus, seeds five through eight would have to win four games to take the tournament while the top two seeds would only have to win two games.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Ford Center (Evansville, IN)
1st Round: March 6th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 7th, 2019
Semifinals: March 8th, 2019
Finals: March 9th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Belmont
100%
98.6%
66.3%
39.1%
2
Murray St
100%
98%
65.9%
33.8%
3
Jacksonville St
100%
89%
34.5%
15%
4
Austin Peay
100%
85.1%
29.4%
11.5%
5
E Illinois
100%
8.4%
1%
0.2%
6
Morehead St
85%
8.3%
1%
0.1%
7
Tennessee St
85%
4.1%
0.3%
0%
8
TN Martin
65%
5.1%
0.7%
0.2%

OVC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 SE Missouri St 7.4% Austin Peay 92.6% Austin Peay wins by 15
2/21 E Illinois 6.6% Belmont 93.4% Belmont wins by 16
2/21 Morehead St 10.8% Jacksonville St 89.2% Jacksonville St wins by 13
2/21 TN Martin 6.6% Murray St 93.4% Murray St wins by 16
2/21 E Kentucky 58.2% Tennessee Tech 41.8% E Kentucky wins by 3
2/21 SIUE 30.9% Tennessee St 69.1% Tennessee St wins by 6
2/23 SIUE 1.5% Belmont 98.5% Belmont wins by 21
2/23 E Kentucky 11.4% Jacksonville St 88.6% Jacksonville St wins by 12
2/23 SE Missouri St 2.3% Murray St 97.7% Murray St wins by 20
2/23 TN Martin 8.2% Austin Peay 91.8% Austin Peay wins by 14
2/23 Morehead St 57.5% Tennessee Tech 42.5% Morehead St wins by 3
2/23 E Illinois 50.4% Tennessee St 49.6% E Illinois wins by 1
2/28 Austin Peay 65.3% E Kentucky 34.7% Austin Peay wins by 5
2/28 Jacksonville St 68.3% E Illinois 31.7% Jacksonville St wins by 6
2/28 Murray St 80.4% Morehead St 19.6% Murray St wins by 9
2/28 Tennessee Tech 38.5% SIUE 61.5% SIUE wins by 4
2/28 Belmont 83.3% TN Martin 16.7% Belmont wins by 10
2/28 Tennessee St 42.7% SE Missouri St 57.3% SE Missouri St wins by 3

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC