OVC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Ohio Valley Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the OVC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 3/17/2019.

OVC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Belmont 26 5 26 5 16 2 16 2
2 Murray St 27 4 27 4 16 2 16 2
3 Jacksonville St 24 9 24 9 15 3 15 3
4 Austin Peay 22 11 22 11 13 5 13 5
5 Morehead St 13 20 13 20 8 10 8 10
6 E Illinois 14 18 14 18 7 11 7 11
7 TN Martin 12 19 12 19 6 12 6 12
8 SIUE 10 21 10 21 6 12 6 12
9 E Kentucky 13 18 13 18 6 12 6 12
10 Tennessee St 9 21 9 21 6 12 6 12
11 SE Missouri St 10 21 10 21 5 13 5 13
12 Tennessee Tech 8 23 8 23 4 14 4 14

Projected OVC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Ohio Valley Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Murray St 12 4.671
Belmont Last 4 Out 4.595

Projected OVC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Ohio Valley Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Belmont 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Murray St 0% 100% 0% 0% 100%
Jacksonville St 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%
Austin Peay 0% 0% 0% 100% 100%
Morehead St 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
E Illinois 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
TN Martin 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
SIUE 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
E Kentucky 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Tennessee St 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SE Missouri St 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Tennessee Tech 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

OVC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Ohio Valley Conference uses a little bit of a strange structure for it’s Men’s Basketball Tournament. Eight teams of the twleve in the conference advance to play in the tournament. The top two seeds are given byes into the Semifinals, while the three and four seeds are given byes into the Quarterfinals. Thus, seeds five through eight would have to win four games to take the tournament while the top two seeds would only have to win two games.

Regular Season Champion: Belmont
Tournament Site: Ford Center (Evansville, IN)
1st Round: March 6th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 7th, 2019
Semifinals: March 8th, 2019
Finals: March 9th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Belmont
100%
100%
100%
0%
2
Murray St
100%
100%
100%
100%
3
Jacksonville St
100%
100%
0%
0%
4
Austin Peay
100%
100%
0%
0%
5
Morehead St
100%
0%
0%
0%
6
E Illinois
0%
0%
0%
0%
7
TN Martin
100%
0%
0%
0%
8
SIUE
0%
0%
0%
0%

OVC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC