OVC Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Ohio Valley Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the OVC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2018.

OVC Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Murray St 22 5 23.5 5.5 14 2 15.5 2.5
2 Belmont 22 7 23.5 7.5 14 2 15.5 2.5
3 Austin Peay 16 12 16.9 13.1 11 5 11.9 6.1
4 Tennessee St 15 12 15.6 13.4 10 6 10.6 7.4
5 Tennessee Tech 17 12 18 13 9 7 10 8
6 Jacksonville St 18 11 19 12 9 7 10 8
7 SE Missouri St 14 15 15.2 15.8 7 8 8.2 8.8
8 E Illinois 10 17 10.9 18.1 6 10 6.9 11.1
9 E Kentucky 10 19 10.9 20.1 4 12 4.9 13.1
10 Edwardsville 8 17 8.7 18.3 4 10 4.7 11.3
11 TN Martin 9 20 9.7 21.3 4 11 4.7 12.3
12 Morehead St 6 21 7.2 21.8 2 14 3.2 14.8

Projected OVC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Ohio Valley Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Murray St 13 2.865

OVC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each OVC team. The Ohio Valley Conference uses a little bit of a strange structure for it’s Men’s Basketball Tournament. Eight teams of the twleve in the conference advance to play in the tournament. The top two seeds are given byes into the Semifinals, while the three and four seeds are given byes into the Quarterfinals. Thus, seeds five through eight would have to win four games to take the tournament while the top two seeds would only have to win two games.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Ford Center (Evansville, IN)
1st Round: February 28th, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 1st, 2018
Semifinals: March 2nd, 2018
Finals: March 3rd, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Murray St
100%
82.1%
47.7%
2
Belmont
100%
75%
41.3%
3
Austin Peay
47.8%
9.9%
2.3%
4
Tennessee St
58.1%
10.9%
2.7%
5
Tennessee Tech
26.8%
4.5%
0.9%
6
Jacksonville St
41.8%
13.7%
4.9%
7
SE Missouri St
10.4%
1.4%
0.1%
8
E Illinois
15.1%
2.5%
0.1%

OVC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/22 SE Missouri St 45.2% E Kentucky 54.8% E Kentucky wins by 2
2/22 TN Martin 37.6% Morehead St 62.5% Morehead St wins by 4
2/22 Murray St 79.7% E Illinois 20.3% Murray St wins by 9
2/22 Belmont 58.8% Jacksonville St 41.2% Belmont wins by 3
2/22 Tennessee St 43.9% Tennessee Tech 56.1% Tennessee Tech wins by 2
2/22 Austin Peay 60.1% Edwardsville 39.9% Austin Peay wins by 4
2/24 E Kentucky 39.9% Morehead St 60.1% Morehead St wins by 4
2/24 Murray St 66% Austin Peay 34% Murray St wins by 5
2/24 Tennessee St 13.4% Belmont 86.6% Belmont wins by 12
2/24 Edwardsville 27.2% E Illinois 72.8% E Illinois wins by 7
2/24 TN Martin 28.2% SE Missouri St 71.8% SE Missouri St wins by 7
2/24 Jacksonville St 55.5% Tennessee Tech 44.5% Jacksonville St wins by 2

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC