These are the latest Pac-12 Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Pac-12 are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/14/2019.
Pac-12 Projected Standings
| Rank | Team | All Games | Conference Games | Actual | Projected | Actual | Projected | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins | Losses | Wins | Losses | Wins | Losses | Wins | Losses | ||
| 1 | Washington | 19 | 5 | 24.7 | 6.3 | 10 | 1 | 15.7 | 2.3 |
| 2 | Arizona St | 16 | 8 | 19.5 | 10.5 | 7 | 5 | 10.5 | 7.5 |
| 3 | Utah | 13 | 10 | 16.5 | 13.5 | 7 | 4 | 10.5 | 7.5 |
| 4 | Oregon St | 15 | 8 | 18.5 | 11.5 | 7 | 4 | 10.5 | 7.5 |
| 5 | Oregon | 15 | 9 | 18.5 | 12.5 | 6 | 5 | 9.5 | 8.5 |
| 6 | Colorado | 15 | 9 | 18.3 | 11.7 | 6 | 6 | 9.3 | 8.7 |
| 7 | Stanford | 13 | 11 | 16.2 | 13.8 | 6 | 6 | 9.2 | 8.8 |
| 8 | UCLA | 13 | 12 | 15.9 | 15.1 | 6 | 6 | 8.9 | 9.1 |
| 9 | USC | 13 | 12 | 15.9 | 15.1 | 6 | 6 | 8.9 | 9.1 |
| 10 | Arizona | 14 | 10 | 17.7 | 13.3 | 5 | 6 | 8.7 | 9.3 |
| 11 | Washington St | 10 | 14 | 12.5 | 18.5 | 3 | 8 | 5.5 | 12.5 |
| 12 | California | 5 | 19 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 17 |
Projected Pac-12 Tournament Bids
Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Pac-12 Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.
| Team | Seed | Bracket Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Washington | 9 | 6.569 |
| Arizona St | 12 | 4.472 |
Projected Pac-12 Regular Season Finish
Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Pac-12 Conference standings.
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Top 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Arizona St | 0% | 27% | 16% | 19% | 95% |
| Utah | 0% | 30% | 25% | 17% | 98% |
| Oregon St | 0% | 25% | 23% | 17% | 97% |
| Oregon | 0% | 6% | 11% | 8% | 78% |
| Colorado | 0% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 73% |
| Stanford | 0% | 2% | 1% | 10% | 77% |
| UCLA | 0% | 4% | 5% | 9% | 64% |
| USC | 0% | 2% | 9% | 10% | 62% |
| Arizona | 0% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 55% |
| Washington St | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| California | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Pac-12 Conference Tournament Predictions
Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Pac-12 Men’s Basketball Tournament features a standard format with twelve teams, single elimination, at on an off-campus site.
Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, NV)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019
| Seed | Team | To Advance To | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qtrs | Semis | Finals | To Win | ||
Pac-12 Upcoming Conference Games with Projections
Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.
| Date | Away Team | Away Prob to Win | Home Team | Home Prob to Win | Game Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/14 | Arizona | 40.2% | Utah | 59.8% | Utah wins by 4 |
| 2/16 | Arizona St | 48.2% | Utah | 51.8% | Utah wins by 1 |
| 2/16 | USC | 72.5% | California | 27.5% | USC wins by 7 |
| 2/16 | Oregon | 41.8% | Oregon St | 58.2% | Oregon St wins by 3 |
| 2/16 | UCLA | 42.7% | Stanford | 57.3% | Stanford wins by 3 |
| 2/16 | Washington | 80.4% | Washington St | 19.6% | Washington wins by 9 |
| 2/17 | Arizona | 39.2% | Colorado | 60.8% | Colorado wins by 4 |
| 2/20 | Stanford | 20.6% | Arizona St | 79.4% | Arizona St wins by 9 |
| 2/20 | Colorado | 60.8% | Washington St | 39.2% | Colorado wins by 4 |
| 2/20 | Utah | 15.3% | Washington | 84.7% | Washington wins by 11 |
| 2/21 | California | 7.8% | Arizona | 92.2% | Arizona wins by 15 |
| 2/21 | Oregon | 49.3% | USC | 50.7% | USC wins by 1 |
| 2/21 | Oregon St | 44.5% | UCLA | 55.5% | UCLA wins by 2 |
| 2/23 | Colorado | 15.8% | Washington | 84.2% | Washington wins by 11 |
| 2/23 | Oregon | 48.2% | UCLA | 51.8% | UCLA wins by 1 |
| 2/23 | Oregon St | 46.7% | USC | 53.3% | USC wins by 1 |
| 2/23 | Utah | 60.1% | Washington St | 39.9% | Utah wins by 4 |
| 2/24 | Stanford | 30.9% | Arizona | 69.1% | Arizona wins by 6 |
Projections in Other Conferences
For other conferences, please see below.