Pac-12 Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Pac-12 Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Pac-12 are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/14/2019.

Pac-12 Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Washington 19 5 24.7 6.3 10 1 15.7 2.3
2 Arizona St 16 8 19.5 10.5 7 5 10.5 7.5
3 Utah 13 10 16.5 13.5 7 4 10.5 7.5
4 Oregon St 15 8 18.5 11.5 7 4 10.5 7.5
5 Oregon 15 9 18.5 12.5 6 5 9.5 8.5
6 Colorado 15 9 18.3 11.7 6 6 9.3 8.7
7 Stanford 13 11 16.2 13.8 6 6 9.2 8.8
8 UCLA 13 12 15.9 15.1 6 6 8.9 9.1
9 USC 13 12 15.9 15.1 6 6 8.9 9.1
10 Arizona 14 10 17.7 13.3 5 6 8.7 9.3
11 Washington St 10 14 12.5 18.5 3 8 5.5 12.5
12 California 5 19 6 24 0 12 1 17

Projected Pac-12 Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Pac-12 Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Washington 9 6.569
Arizona St 12 4.472

Projected Pac-12 Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Pac-12 Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Washington 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Arizona St 0% 27% 16% 19% 95%
Utah 0% 30% 25% 17% 98%
Oregon St 0% 25% 23% 17% 97%
Oregon 0% 6% 11% 8% 78%
Colorado 0% 3% 7% 4% 73%
Stanford 0% 2% 1% 10% 77%
UCLA 0% 4% 5% 9% 64%
USC 0% 2% 9% 10% 62%
Arizona 0% 1% 3% 6% 55%
Washington St 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
California 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Pac-12 Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Pac-12 Men’s Basketball Tournament features a standard format with twelve teams, single elimination, at on an off-campus site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, NV)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Washington
100%
69.3%
47.7%
32.7%
2
Arizona St
91.8%
53.4%
27.6%
14.2%
3
Utah
94.3%
49.1%
20.7%
8.2%
4
Oregon St
84.9%
46.7%
21.2%
8.9%
5
Oregon
74.6%
44.2%
24.4%
13.3%
6
Colorado
64.4%
26.2%
11.6%
4.6%
7
Stanford
61.6%
20.5%
6.9%
2%
8
UCLA
64.6%
28.3%
12%
4.5%
9
USC
64.1%
25.5%
11.2%
4.8%
10
Arizona
58.5%
29.4%
14.8%
6.5%
11
Washington St
25.4%
5.9%
1.9%
0.3%
12
California
15.8%
1.5%
0%
0%

Pac-12 Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/14 Arizona 40.2% Utah 59.8% Utah wins by 4
2/16 Arizona St 48.2% Utah 51.8% Utah wins by 1
2/16 USC 72.5% California 27.5% USC wins by 7
2/16 Oregon 41.8% Oregon St 58.2% Oregon St wins by 3
2/16 UCLA 42.7% Stanford 57.3% Stanford wins by 3
2/16 Washington 80.4% Washington St 19.6% Washington wins by 9
2/17 Arizona 39.2% Colorado 60.8% Colorado wins by 4
2/20 Stanford 20.6% Arizona St 79.4% Arizona St wins by 9
2/20 Colorado 60.8% Washington St 39.2% Colorado wins by 4
2/20 Utah 15.3% Washington 84.7% Washington wins by 11
2/21 California 7.8% Arizona 92.2% Arizona wins by 15
2/21 Oregon 49.3% USC 50.7% USC wins by 1
2/21 Oregon St 44.5% UCLA 55.5% UCLA wins by 2
2/23 Colorado 15.8% Washington 84.2% Washington wins by 11
2/23 Oregon 48.2% UCLA 51.8% UCLA wins by 1
2/23 Oregon St 46.7% USC 53.3% USC wins by 1
2/23 Utah 60.1% Washington St 39.9% Utah wins by 4
2/24 Stanford 30.9% Arizona 69.1% Arizona wins by 6

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC