Pac-12 Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Pac-12 Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Pac-12 are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/10/2018.

Pac-12 Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Arizona St 7 1 22.2 7.8 0 0 12.6 5.4
2 Arizona 7 3 21.7 9.3 0 0 11.9 6.1
3 Washington 7 3 20.6 10.4 0 0 11.4 6.6
4 UCLA 7 2 19.5 11.5 0 0 10.7 7.3
5 Oregon 5 3 19.2 11.8 0 0 10.3 7.7
6 Colorado 7 1 18.1 9.9 0 0 9.7 8.3
7 Oregon St 6 2 18.2 11.8 0 0 9 9
8 Stanford 4 4 15.7 14.3 0 0 8.7 9.3
9 USC 5 4 15.3 15.7 0 0 7.5 10.5
10 Utah 4 4 12.4 17.6 0 0 6.4 11.6
11 Washington St 5 3 12.4 17.6 0 0 4.9 13.1
12 California 3 5 10.2 19.8 0 0 4.8 13.2

Projected Pac-12 Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Pac-12 Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Arizona St 7 6.963
Arizona 7 6.835
Washington 10 5.922
UCLA 11 5.402
Oregon Last 4 Out 4.885

Projected Pac-12 Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Pac-12 Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Arizona St 33% 27% 19% 8% 100%
Arizona 31% 16% 11% 16% 97%
Washington 13% 20% 17% 12% 96%
UCLA 10% 17% 11% 13% 94%
Oregon 7% 14% 10% 22% 94%
Colorado 3% 3% 14% 7% 82%
Oregon St 2% 1% 6% 10% 74%
Stanford 1% 1% 7% 6% 67%
USC 0% 1% 4% 3% 54%
Utah 0% 0% 1% 3% 32%
Washington St 0% 0% 0% 0% 4%
California 0% 0% 0% 0% 6%

Pac-12 Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Pac-12 Men’s Basketball Tournament features a standard format with twelve teams, single elimination, and on an off-campus site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, NV)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Coming Soon!

Pac-12 Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
1/3 Colorado 22.3% Arizona 77.7% Arizona wins by 8
1/3 Utah 8.2% Arizona St 91.8% Arizona St wins by 14
1/3 California 17.7% USC 82.3% USC wins by 10
1/3 Stanford 25.7% UCLA 74.3% UCLA wins by 7
1/5 Utah 10.6% Arizona 89.4% Arizona wins by 13
1/5 Colorado 18.4% Arizona St 81.6% Arizona St wins by 9
1/5 California 8.6% UCLA 91.4% UCLA wins by 13
1/5 Oregon St 29% Oregon 71% Oregon wins by 7
1/5 Washington St 7.8% Washington 92.2% Washington wins by 15
1/6 Stanford 46.3% USC 53.7% USC wins by 1
1/9 Arizona 57.1% Stanford 42.9% Arizona wins by 3
1/9 Arizona St 80.4% California 19.6% Arizona St wins by 9
1/10 Washington St 9.4% Colorado 90.6% Colorado wins by 13
1/10 UCLA 37.2% Oregon 62.8% Oregon wins by 5
1/10 USC 23.3% Oregon St 76.7% Oregon St wins by 8
1/10 Washington 61.8% Utah 38.2% Washington wins by 4
1/12 Arizona 77.2% California 22.8% Arizona wins by 8
1/12 Arizona St 59.8% Stanford 40.2% Arizona St wins by 4

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC