Pac-12 Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Pac-12 Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Pac-12 are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2018.

Pac-12 Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Arizona 21 6 24 7 11 3 14 4
2 USC 19 9 20.7 10.3 10 5 11.7 6.3
3 UCLA 19 8 20.4 9.6 10 5 11.4 6.6
4 Utah 17 9 18.9 10.1 9 6 10.9 7.1
5 Washington 18 9 20.1 10.9 8 6 10.1 7.9
6 Arizona St 19 7 21.8 8.2 7 7 9.8 8.2
7 Stanford 14 13 15.8 15.2 8 6 9.8 8.2
8 Oregon 17 10 19.2 11.8 7 7 9.2 8.8
9 Colorado 15 12 16 14 7 8 8 10
10 Oregon St 13 13 14.7 15.3 5 9 6.7 11.3
11 Washington St 10 16 11.3 18.7 2 12 3.3 14.7
12 California 8 19 9.1 21.9 2 12 3.1 14.9

Projected Pac-12 Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Pac-12 Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Arizona 4 8.49
Arizona St 7 6.53
UCLA 11 5.204
Utah Next 4 Out 4.343
USC Next 4 Out 4.253

Pac-12 Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each Pac-12 team. The Pac-12 Men’s Basketball Tournament features a standard format with twelve teams, single elimination, and on an off-campus site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: T-Mobile Area (Las Vegas, NV)
First Round: March 7th, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 8th, 2018
Semifinals: March 9th, 2018
Finals: March 10th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Arizona
100%
68.4%
48.9%
31%
2
USC
100%
67%
35.8%
17%
3
UCLA
100%
49.3%
24.9%
12.5%
4
Utah
100%
65.9%
26.3%
11.9%
5
Washington
79.2%
30.1%
7.1%
2.6%
6
Arizona St
87.8%
48.9%
27.8%
15.4%
7
Stanford
51.1%
17.8%
6.7%
2.1%
8
Oregon
69.1%
25.7%
15.4%
5.6%
9
Colorado
30.9%
5.9%
1.9%
0.6%
10
Oregon St
48.9%
15.2%
4.6%
1.3%
11
Washington St
12.2%
1.8%
0.2%
0%
12
California
20.8%
4%
0.4%
0%

Pac-12 Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 USC 60.5% Colorado 39.5% USC wins by 4
2/22 Arizona St 46.3% Oregon 53.7% Oregon wins by 1
2/22 UCLA 43.1% Utah 56.9% Utah wins by 3
2/22 Washington St 43.1% California 56.9% California wins by 3
2/22 Arizona 64.1% Oregon St 35.9% Arizona wins by 5
2/22 Washington 37.9% Stanford 62.1% Stanford wins by 4
2/24 Arizona St 59.5% Oregon St 40.5% Arizona St wins by 4
2/24 USC 44.5% Utah 55.5% Utah wins by 2
2/24 Washington 62.8% California 37.2% Washington wins by 5
2/24 Arizona 55.7% Oregon 44.3% Arizona wins by 2
2/24 Washington St 14.6% Stanford 85.4% Stanford wins by 11
2/25 UCLA 59.5% Colorado 40.5% UCLA wins by 4
3/1 Stanford 14.1% Arizona 85.9% Arizona wins by 11
3/1 California 7% Arizona St 93% Arizona St wins by 16
3/1 Oregon St 37.6% Washington 62.5% Washington wins by 4
3/1 Oregon 71.2% Washington St 28.8% Oregon wins by 7
3/3 UCLA 37.6% USC 62.5% USC wins by 4
3/3 California 4.9% Arizona 95.1% Arizona wins by 18

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC