Pacific Tigers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Pacific Tigers. All of these projections for Pacific are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Pacific Record and Rankings

Record: 11-10
Projected Final Record: 14.8-16.2

WCC Conference Record: 1-5
Projected Final WCC Record: 4.8-11.2
Projected Final Rank in the WCC: 9

Pacific Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 179
RPI Rank: 153
NET Rank: 164
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 0-3 2-4 7-1
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.333 0.875

Our current projections give the Pacific Tigers a 0.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 99.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Pacific’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.4%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Pacific Tigers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Pacific Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 327 SIUE Away W 74-65
11/9 22 Nevada Away L 61-83
11/13 No Rank CS Stanislaus Home W 91-66
11/15 258 Idaho St Away W 83-76
11/20 156 UNLV Away L 70-96
11/22 306 UC Riverside Home W 74-54
11/23 147 Abilene Chr Home L 71-73
11/24 315 Elon Home W 65-57
11/28 63 Fresno St Away L 78-81
12/1 231 Air Force Home W 82-69
12/5 No Rank Permian Basin Home W 74-69
12/10 190 Long Beach St Home W 74-68
12/16 279 CS Northridge Away W 79-77
12/22 160 Boise St Away L 71-83
12/29 107 UC Irvine Home W 84-75
1/3 112 BYU Home L 87-90
1/5 128 San Diego Away L 64-73
1/10 5 Gonzaga Away L 36-67
1/12 316 Portland Away W 65-57
1/17 45 San Francisco Home L 52-53
1/19 185 Santa Clara Home L 57-69
1/26 316 Portland Home 90%
1/31 143 Loy Marymount Away 27.7%
2/2 189 Pepperdine Home 63.8%
2/7 56 St Mary’s CA Away 8%
2/9 112 BYU Away 17%
2/16 185 Santa Clara Away 41.8%
2/21 56 St Mary’s CA Home 28.8%
2/23 143 Loy Marymount Home 51.8%
2/28 5 Gonzaga Home 7.6%
3/2 189 Pepperdine Away 42.2%