Patriot League Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Patriot League Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Patriot League are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

Patriot League Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Bucknell 17 10 19.3 10.7 11 4 13.3 4.7
2 Lehigh 18 8 20.1 8.9 11 4 13.1 4.9
3 Colgate 18 10 20.3 10.7 10 5 12.3 5.7
4 Army 12 16 13.4 17.6 7 8 8.4 9.6
5 American Univ 13 13 14.3 14.7 7 8 8.3 9.7
6 Lafayette 10 16 11.1 17.9 7 8 8.1 9.9
7 Navy 9 16 10.2 18.8 6 8 7.2 10.8
8 Boston Univ 12 16 13.8 17.2 5 10 6.8 11.2
9 Loyola MD 9 18 10.6 20.4 5 9 6.6 11.4
10 Holy Cross 14 14 14.9 16.1 5 10 5.9 12.1

Projected Patriot League Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Patriot League Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Bucknell 16 -0.204

Projected Patriot League Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Patriot League Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Bucknell 53% 32% 15% 0% 100%
Lehigh 36% 38% 26% 0% 100%
Colgate 11% 30% 59% 0% 100%
Army 0% 0% 0% 39% 98%
American Univ 0% 0% 0% 41% 100%
Lafayette 0% 0% 0% 13% 98%
Navy 0% 0% 0% 4% 67%
Boston Univ 0% 0% 0% 1% 69%
Loyola MD 0% 0% 0% 2% 52%
Holy Cross 0% 0% 0% 0% 16%

Patriot League Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Patriot League Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Patriot League Men’s Conference Championship Tournament is held over nine days and follows a standard ten team format. The games are played on the campus of the higher seed over the course of the tournament.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Campus Sites
First Round: March 5th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 7th, 2019
Semifinals: March 10th, 2019
Finals: March 13th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Bucknell
100%
82.4%
57.5%
38.1%
2
Lehigh
100%
79.5%
47.3%
25.3%
3
Colgate
100%
78.6%
43.9%
22.4%
4
Army
90.7%
39.2%
10.9%
2.9%
5
American Univ
94%
50.3%
19.1%
6.1%
6
Lafayette
86.4%
24.4%
6.5%
1.3%
7
Navy
57.5%
10.9%
3.1%
0.8%
8
Boston Univ
61.9%
13.7%
5.6%
1.9%
9
Loyola MD
62.2%
10.4%
2.9%
0.4%
10
Holy Cross
47.3%
10.6%
3.2%
0.8%

Patriot League Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 Navy 40.2% Loyola MD 59.8% Loyola MD wins by 4
2/23 Loyola MD 30.9% Boston Univ 69.1% Boston Univ wins by 6
2/23 Navy 14.3% Colgate 85.7% Colgate wins by 11
2/23 Lafayette 15.8% Bucknell 84.2% Bucknell wins by 11
2/24 Holy Cross 17.7% Lehigh 82.3% Lehigh wins by 10
2/24 American Univ 45.2% Army 54.8% Army wins by 2
2/27 Lehigh 59.2% American Univ 40.9% Lehigh wins by 3
2/27 Bucknell 66.4% Navy 33.6% Bucknell wins by 6
2/27 Boston Univ 44.5% Lafayette 55.5% Lafayette wins by 2
2/27 Holy Cross 18.9% Colgate 81.1% Colgate wins by 9
2/27 Loyola MD 32.8% Army 67.2% Army wins by 6
3/2 Navy 29.7% Boston Univ 70.3% Boston Univ wins by 7
3/2 Colgate 63.4% Lafayette 36.6% Colgate wins by 5
3/2 American Univ 43.5% Holy Cross 56.5% Holy Cross wins by 2
3/2 Army 17.2% Bucknell 82.8% Bucknell wins by 10
3/2 Lehigh 66.4% Loyola MD 33.6% Lehigh wins by 6

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC