Patriot League Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Patriot League Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Patriot League are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/17/2018.

Patriot League Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Holy Cross 6 4 22 9 0 0 13.4 4.6
2 Colgate 8 4 20.5 10.5 0 0 12.2 5.8
3 Lehigh 6 3 18.8 10.2 0 0 11.8 6.2
4 Bucknell 4 4 15.3 12.7 0 0 10.9 7.1
5 Boston Univ 7 5 17.8 13.2 0 0 9.9 8.1
6 American Univ 5 3 17.3 11.7 0 0 9.7 8.3
7 Army 5 7 11.9 19.1 0 0 6.4 11.6
8 Loyola MD 4 7 10 21 0 0 5.8 12.2
9 Navy 3 6 9 20 0 0 5.7 12.3
10 Lafayette 2 7 7.4 21.6 0 0 4.2 13.8

Projected Patriot League Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Patriot League Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Holy Cross 16 1.755

Projected Patriot League Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Patriot League Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Holy Cross 51% 19% 18% 5% 100%
Colgate 23% 28% 16% 15% 100%
Lehigh 13% 28% 25% 10% 99%
Bucknell 9% 12% 12% 22% 98%
Boston Univ 3% 8% 12% 21% 97%
American Univ 1% 5% 15% 25% 99%
Army 0% 0% 2% 2% 71%
Loyola MD 0% 0% 0% 0% 62%
Navy 0% 0% 0% 0% 52%
Lafayette 0% 0% 0% 0% 22%

Patriot League Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Patriot League Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Patriot League Men’s Conference Championship Tournament is held over nine days and follows a standard ten team format. The games are played on the campus of the higher seed over the course of the tournament.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Campus Sites
First Round: March 5th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 7th, 2019
Semifinals: March 10th, 2019
Finals: March 13th, 2019

Coming Soon!

Patriot League Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
1/2 Boston Univ 42.7% American Univ 57.3% American Univ wins by 3
1/2 Lafayette 7.4% Lehigh 92.6% Lehigh wins by 15
1/2 Bucknell 65.3% Army 34.7% Bucknell wins by 5
1/3 Colgate 78.2% Navy 21.8% Colgate wins by 8
1/3 Holy Cross 82.1% Loyola MD 17.9% Holy Cross wins by 10
1/5 Bucknell 47.1% Boston Univ 52.9% Boston Univ wins by 1
1/5 Lafayette 21.8% Army 78.2% Army wins by 8
1/6 American Univ 23.8% Colgate 76.2% Colgate wins by 8
1/6 Holy Cross 82.1% Navy 17.9% Holy Cross wins by 10
1/6 Loyola MD 9.4% Lehigh 90.6% Lehigh wins by 13
1/9 Colgate 48.5% Bucknell 51.5% Bucknell wins by 1
1/9 Navy 16.2% American Univ 83.8% American Univ wins by 10
1/9 Loyola MD 53.7% Lafayette 46.3% Loyola MD wins by 1
1/9 Lehigh 30.5% Holy Cross 69.5% Holy Cross wins by 6
1/9 Army 17.9% Boston Univ 82.1% Boston Univ wins by 10
1/12 American Univ 33.2% Bucknell 66.8% Bucknell wins by 6
1/12 Lehigh 39.5% Colgate 60.5% Colgate wins by 4
1/12 Boston Univ 64.5% Navy 35.5% Boston Univ wins by 5

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC