Penn Quakers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Penn Quakers. All of these projections for Penn are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

Penn Record and Rankings

Record: 24-9
Projected Final Record: 24.0-9.0

Ivy League Conference Record: 14-2
Projected Final Ivy League Record: 14.0-2.0
Projected Final Rank in the Ivy League: 2

Penn Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 116
RPI Rank: 115
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 15 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-3 6-3 17-1
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.667 0.944

Our current projections give the Penn Quakers a 48.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 52.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Penn’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 13.6%
NCAA #15 Seed 29.6%
NCAA #16 Seed 4.8%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Penn Quakers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Penn Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/11 205 Fairfield Away L 72-80
11/13 168 La Salle Home L 71-75
11/15 234 Navy Home W 66-45
11/18 No Rank PSU-Brandywine Home W 99-40
11/20 238 N Illinois Estero, FL W 93-80
11/21 169 Towson Estero, FL L 71-79
11/22 268 Missouri KC Estero, FL W 68-65
11/25 214 Monmouth NJ Away W 101-96
11/29 2 Villanova Away L 62-90
12/4 335 Howard Away W 81-68
12/6 310 Lafayette Away W 73-68
12/9 158 Dayton Away W 78-70
12/27 351 Delaware St Home W 105-52
12/29 113 Toledo Home L 72-85
1/6 212 Princeton Home W 76-70
1/12 258 Cornell Home W 69-61
1/13 278 Columbia Home W 77-71
1/20 82 Temple Home L 51-60
1/27 120 St Joseph’s PA Philadelphia, PA W 67-56
2/2 281 Brown Home W 95-90
2/3 199 Yale Home W 59-50
2/6 212 Princeton Away W 82-65
2/9 316 Dartmouth Away W 64-61
2/10 149 Harvard Away L 67-76
2/16 278 Columbia Away W 74-62
2/17 258 Cornell Away W 79-71
2/23 316 Dartmouth Home W 74-46
2/24 149 Harvard Home W 74-71
3/2 199 Yale Away L 79-80
3/3 281 Brown Away W 99-93
3/10 199 Yale Home W 80-57
3/11 149 Harvard Home W 68-65
3/15 7 Kansas NCAA Tournament Wichita KS L 60-76