Penn Quakers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Penn Quakers. All of these projections for Penn are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Penn Record and Rankings

Record: 11-6
Projected Final Record: 19.4-10.6

Ivy League Conference Record: 0-2
Projected Final Ivy League Record: 7.7-6.3
Projected Final Rank in the Ivy League: 3

Penn Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 111
RPI Rank: 106
NET Rank: 124
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-2 0-2 4-1 4-1
Win % by Tier 0.500 0.000 0.800 0.800

Our current projections give the Penn Quakers a 22.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 3.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 74.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Penn’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 3.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #14 Seed 5.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 10.6%
NCAA #16 Seed 1.6%
NIT #1 Seed 0.6%
NIT #2 Seed 0.4%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.8%
NIT #6 Seed 1.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Penn Quakers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Penn Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 137 George Mason Away W 72-71
11/9 254 Rice Home W 92-76
11/13 295 Lafayette Home W 91-61
11/16 188 Northern Iowa Neutal W 78-71
11/18 30 Kansas St Neutral L 48-64
11/19 67 Oregon St Neutral L 58-74
11/24 No Rank R Stockton Home W 112-63
11/27 350 Delaware St Away W 76-48
12/4 97 Miami FL Home W 89-75
12/8 275 La Salle Away W 83-65
12/11 25 Villanova Home W 78-75
12/22 176 New Mexico Away W 75-65
12/29 62 Toledo Away L 45-77
12/31 265 Monmouth NJ Home L 74-76
1/5 140 Princeton Away L 65-68
1/12 140 Princeton Home L 53-62
1/19 54 Temple Away W 77-70
1/26 168 St Joseph’s PA Neutral 64.5%
2/1 216 Cornell Away 65.3%
2/2 282 Columbia Away 72.9%
2/8 135 Brown Away 48.2%
2/9 66 Yale Away 28.2%
2/15 199 Dartmouth Home 84.7%
2/16 145 Harvard Home 69.5%
2/22 282 Columbia Home 90.8%
2/23 216 Cornell Home 86.1%
3/1 145 Harvard Away 47.4%
3/2 199 Dartmouth Away 61.5%
3/8 66 Yale Home 51.1%
3/9 135 Brown Home 69.1%