Penn Quakers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Penn Quakers. All of these projections for Penn are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Penn Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 19.5-8.5

Ivy League Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Ivy League Record: 10.5-3.5
Projected Final Rank in the Ivy League: 1

Penn Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 100
RPI Rank: 142
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 14 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 1-0 1-0 0-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 1.000 0.000

Our current projections give the Penn Quakers a 54.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 44.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Penn’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 5.8%
NCAA #14 Seed 18.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 23.8%
NCAA #16 Seed 6.2%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.4%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Penn Quakers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Penn Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 207 George Mason Away W 72-71
11/9 268 Rice Home W 92-76
11/13 222 Lafayette Home 84.7%
11/16 148 Northern Iowa Neutal 59.4%
11/24 No Rank R Stockton Home 98.8%
11/27 351 Delaware St Away 93.8%
12/4 23 Miami FL Home 37.2%
12/8 209 La Salle Away 58.2%
12/11 2 Villanova Home 10.8%
12/22 134 New Mexico Away 52.9%
12/29 102 Toledo Away 39.5%
12/31 240 Monmouth NJ Home 86.8%
1/5 228 Princeton Away 63.4%
1/12 228 Princeton Home 86.1%
1/19 116 Temple Away 41.2%
1/26 76 St Joseph’s PA Neutral 36.5%
2/1 261 Cornell Away 72.5%
2/2 270 Columbia Away 69.1%
2/8 273 Brown Away 71.2%
2/9 150 Yale Away 54.8%
2/15 245 Dartmouth Home 88.3%
2/16 147 Harvard Home 73.8%
2/22 270 Columbia Home 90.3%
2/23 261 Cornell Home 91.8%
3/1 147 Harvard Away 51.1%
3/2 245 Dartmouth Away 66.4%
3/8 150 Yale Home 78.7%
3/9 273 Brown Home 91.4%