Penn Quakers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Penn Quakers. All of these projections for Penn are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Penn Record and Rankings

Record: 19-7
Projected Final Record: 21.7-8.3

Ivy League Conference Record: 9-1
Projected Final Ivy League Record: 11.7-2.3
Projected Final Rank in the Ivy League: 1

Penn Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 127
RPI Rank: 133
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 15 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 1-1 3-4 14-1
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.500 0.429 0.933

Our current projections give the Penn Quakers a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 60.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 39.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Penn’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 5.8%
NIT #7 Seed 47.0%
NIT #8 Seed 7.4%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Penn Quakers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Penn Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/11 228 Fairfield Away L 72-80
11/13 178 La Salle Home L 71-75
11/15 211 Navy Home W 66-45
11/18 No Rank PSU-Brandywine Home W 99-40
11/20 234 N Illinois Estero, FL W 93-80
11/21 163 Towson Estero, FL L 71-79
11/22 270 Missouri KC Estero, FL W 68-65
11/25 220 Monmouth NJ Away W 101-96
11/29 2 Villanova Away L 62-90
12/4 334 Howard Away W 81-68
12/6 288 Lafayette Away W 73-68
12/9 143 Dayton Away W 78-70
12/27 351 Delaware St Home W 105-52
12/29 109 Toledo Home L 72-85
1/6 212 Princeton Home W 76-70
1/12 254 Cornell Home W 69-61
1/13 259 Columbia Home W 77-71
1/20 75 Temple Home L 51-60
1/27 145 St Joseph’s PA Philadelphia, PA W 67-56
2/2 257 Brown Home W 95-90
2/3 213 Yale Home W 59-50
2/6 212 Princeton Away W 82-65
2/9 310 Dartmouth Away W 64-61
2/10 153 Harvard Away L 67-76
2/16 259 Columbia Away W 74-62
2/17 254 Cornell Away W 79-71
2/23 310 Dartmouth Home 86.8%
2/24 153 Harvard Home 63.8%
3/2 213 Yale Away 54%
3/3 257 Brown Away 61.1%