Penn State Nittany Lions Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Penn State Nittany Lions. All of these projections for Penn St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Penn St Record and Rankings

Record: 19-10
Projected Final Record: 20.1-10.9

Big Ten Conference Record: 9-7
Projected Final Big Ten Record: 10.1-7.9
Projected Final Rank in the Big Ten: 6

Penn St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 46
RPI Rank: 76
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 11 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-5 2-3 7-2 8-0
Win % by Tier 0.286 0.400 0.778 1.000

Our current projections give the Penn State Nittany Lions a 51.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 45.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 3.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Penn St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 5.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 5.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 12.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 11.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 14.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 21.6%
NIT #2 Seed 14.0%
NIT #3 Seed 6.4%
NIT #4 Seed 2.6%
NIT #5 Seed 0.6%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Penn State Nittany Lions. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Penn St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 240 Campbell Home W 86-75
11/12 278 F Dickinson Home W 81-57
11/15 91 Montana Home W 70-57
11/17 259 Columbia Home W 79-65
11/20 209 Pittsburgh Brooklyn, NY W 85-54
11/21 27 Texas A&M Brooklyn, NY L 87-98
11/24 229 Oral Roberts Home W 86-48
11/29 44 NC State Away L 78-85
12/2 110 Iowa Away W 77-73
12/4 93 Wisconsin Home L 63-64
12/9 181 G Washington Home W 74-54
12/17 200 George Mason Away W 72-54
12/19 314 Binghamton Home W 80-65
12/22 108 Rider Home L 70-71
12/30 342 Coppin St Home W 88-43
1/2 53 Maryland Away L 69-75
1/5 83 Northwestern Home W 78-63
1/9 76 Indiana Away L 70-74
1/12 42 Nebraska Home W 76-74
1/15 96 Minnesota Home L 84-95
1/20 83 Northwestern Away L 61-70
1/25 14 Ohio St Away W 82-79
1/27 147 Rutgers Home W 60-43
1/31 4 Michigan St Away L 68-76
2/3 110 Iowa Home W 82-58
2/7 53 Maryland Home W 74-70
2/11 121 Illinois Away W 74-52
2/15 14 Ohio St Home W 79-56
2/18 7 Purdue Away L 73-76
2/21 20 Michigan Home 57.8%
2/25 42 Nebraska Away 48.2%