Penn State Nittany Lions Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Penn State Nittany Lions. All of these projections for Penn St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Penn St Record and Rankings

Record: 14-18
Projected Final Record: 14.0-18.0

Big Ten Conference Record: 7-13
Projected Final Big Ten Record: 7.0-13.0
Projected Final Rank in the Big Ten: 10

Penn St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 53
RPI Rank: 94
NET Rank: 49
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 3-11 0-3 8-4 3-0
Win % by Tier 0.214 0.000 0.667 1.000

Our current projections give the Penn State Nittany Lions a 32.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 15.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 52.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Penn St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 3.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 8.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 8.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 5.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 3.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 6.4%
NIT #2 Seed 3.4%
NIT #3 Seed 1.8%
NIT #4 Seed 0.8%
NIT #5 Seed 0.8%
NIT #6 Seed 1.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.8%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Penn State Nittany Lions. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Penn St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/9 180 North Florida Home W 87-72
11/12 115 Jacksonville St Home W 76-61
11/15 92 DePaul Away L 70-72
11/20 138 Wright St Neutal W 77-59
11/21 153 Bradley Neutral L 56-59
11/27 17 Virginia Tech Home W 63-62
12/1 26 Maryland Away L 59-66
12/4 45 Indiana Home L 62-64
12/8 127 Colgate Home W 76-65
12/15 33 NC State Neutral L 78-89
12/19 160 Duquesne Away W 73-67
12/21 54 Alabama Away L 64-73
12/29 206 UMBC Home W 74-52
1/3 8 Michigan Away L 55-68
1/6 19 Wisconsin Home L 52-71
1/10 49 Nebraska Away L 64-70
1/13 6 Michigan St Home L 56-71
1/16 34 Iowa Home L 82-89
1/19 32 Minnesota Away L 64-65
1/26 82 Rutgers Home L 60-64
1/31 12 Purdue Home L 90-99
2/4 97 Northwestern Away W 59-52
2/7 46 Ohio St Away L 70-74
2/12 8 Michigan Home W 75-69
2/16 12 Purdue Away L 64-76
2/19 49 Nebraska Home W 95-71
2/23 89 Illinois Away W 83-76
2/27 26 Maryland Home W 78-61
3/2 19 Wisconsin Away L 57-61
3/6 82 Rutgers Away W 66-65
3/10 89 Illinois Home W 72-56
3/14 32 Minnesota Neutral L 72-77