Pitt Panthers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Pitt Panthers. All of these projections for Pittsburgh are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Pittsburgh Record and Rankings

Record: 12-5
Projected Final Record: 17.3-13.7

ACC Conference Record: 2-2
Projected Final ACC Record: 7.3-10.7
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 10

Pittsburgh Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 62
RPI Rank: 84
NET Rank: 53
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Next 4 Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-2 1-2 2-0 7-1
Win % by Tier 0.500 0.333 1.000 0.875

Our current projections give the Pitt Panthers a 18.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 50.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 31.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Pittsburgh’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 3.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 3.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 10.2%
NIT #2 Seed 8.4%
NIT #3 Seed 9.2%
NIT #4 Seed 10.8%
NIT #5 Seed 5.8%
NIT #6 Seed 4.4%
NIT #7 Seed 1.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Pitt Panthers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Pittsburgh Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 295 Youngstown St Home W 69-53
11/9 318 VMI Home W 94-55
11/12 183 Troy Home W 84-75
11/15 245 Cent Arkansas Home W 97-71
11/17 294 North Alabama Home W 71-66
11/21 67 St Louis Neutal W 75-73
11/27 25 Iowa Away L 68-69
11/30 141 Duquesne Neutal W 74-53
12/3 290 Niagara Home L 70-71
12/8 93 West Virginia Away L 59-69
12/15 352 MD E Shore Home W 78-43
12/20 208 New Orleans Home W 99-57
12/29 178 Colgate Home W 68-54
1/5 10 North Carolina Home L 60-85
1/9 23 Louisville Home W 89-86
1/12 36 NC State Away L 80-86
1/14 26 Florida St Home W 75-62
1/19 43 Syracuse Away 21.3%
1/22 5 Duke Home 19.6%
1/26 23 Louisville Away 14.8%
1/29 42 Clemson Away 22.3%
2/2 43 Syracuse Home 51.1%
2/5 166 Wake Forest Away 58.8%
2/9 36 NC State Home 47.1%
2/12 128 Boston College Away 50%
2/16 9 Virginia Tech Home 38.2%
2/20 82 Georgia Tech Away 39.2%
2/27 42 Clemson Home 51.8%
3/2 1 Virginia Away 5.6%
3/5 91 Miami FL Away 42.2%
3/9 78 Notre Dame Home 64.5%