Portland Pilots Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Portland Pilots. All of these projections for Portland are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Portland Record and Rankings

Record: 7-11
Projected Final Record: 9.2-21.8

WCC Conference Record: 0-3
Projected Final WCC Record: 2.2-13.8
Projected Final Rank in the WCC: 10

Portland Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 310
RPI Rank: 316
NET Rank: 313
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 0-3 0-5 5-3
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.625

Our current projections give the Portland Pilots a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 100.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Portland’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Portland Pilots. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Portland Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank Multnomah Bib Home W 111-103
11/9 152 Hawaii Away L 64-82
11/10 79 North Texas Neutral L 73-78
11/17 273 CS Northridge Away W 80-77
11/19 No Rank Lewis & Clark Home W 77-57
11/21 328 SC Upstate Home W 73-56
11/23 333 Cal Poly Home W 72-67
11/24 96 Texas St Home L 68-91
11/28 108 Colorado Away L 69-93
12/5 289 Portland St Away L 78-87
12/8 303 CS Sacramento Home W 76-67
12/15 311 Grambling Home L 58-70
12/17 157 Seattle Home L 56-67
12/21 316 Florida A&M Home W 54-39
12/29 254 CS Fullerton Away L 64-79
1/5 143 Loy Marymount Away L 64-76
1/10 116 BYU Away L 56-79
1/12 169 Pacific Home L 57-65
1/17 129 San Diego Home 20.3%
1/19 6 Gonzaga Home 1.6%
1/24 52 San Francisco Away 1.5%
1/26 169 Pacific Away 11.7%
1/31 182 Pepperdine Home 37.2%
2/2 192 Santa Clara Away 15%
2/7 116 BYU Home 20.3%
2/9 143 Loy Marymount Home 29.7%
2/16 52 San Francisco Home 10.8%
2/21 129 San Diego Away 7.8%
2/23 182 Pepperdine Away 14.6%
2/28 64 St Mary’s CA Away 6.3%
3/2 192 Santa Clara Home 40.2%