Providence Friars Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Providence Friars. All of these projections for Providence are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Providence Record and Rankings

Record: 11-6
Projected Final Record: 16.3-14.7

Big East Conference Record: 1-3
Projected Final Big East Record: 6.3-11.7
Projected Final Rank in the Big East: 10

Providence Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 80
RPI Rank: 109
NET Rank: 81
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-2 2-3 2-0 6-1
Win % by Tier 0.333 0.400 1.000 0.857

Our current projections give the Providence Friars a 6.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 29.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 64.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Providence’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 2.2%
NIT #2 Seed 2.0%
NIT #3 Seed 3.8%
NIT #4 Seed 4.4%
NIT #5 Seed 6.4%
NIT #6 Seed 7.4%
NIT #7 Seed 2.8%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Providence Friars. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Providence Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 260 Siena Home W 77-67
11/9 115 Wichita St Neutral L 80-83
11/13 184 Holy Cross Home W 70-61
11/17 91 South Carolina Neutal W 76-67
11/18 6 Michigan Neutral L 47-66
11/24 227 Iona Home W 91-79
11/27 268 F Dickinson Home W 69-59
12/1 129 Rhode Island Home W 59-50
12/4 123 Boston College Away W 100-95
12/7 197 Massachusetts Home L 78-79
12/16 247 Central Conn Home W 87-63
12/18 302 Albany NY Home W 73-43
12/21 36 Texas Away W 71-65
12/31 60 Creighton Home L 68-79
1/5 25 Villanova Home L 59-65
1/12 86 Georgetown Away L 90-96
1/15 48 Seton Hall Home W 72-63
1/20 18 Marquette Away 13.7%
1/23 74 Xavier Away 38.5%
1/27 88 DePaul Home 66.8%
1/30 48 Seton Hall Away 25.7%
2/2 88 DePaul Away 43.5%
2/6 86 Georgetown Home 64.1%
2/9 38 St John’s Away 19.6%
2/13 25 Villanova Away 14.3%
2/16 74 Xavier Home 60.8%
2/20 38 St John’s Home 45.2%
2/23 18 Marquette Home 39.2%
2/26 42 Butler Away 20.6%
3/6 60 Creighton Away 34.4%
3/9 42 Butler Home 47.1%