Providence Friars Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Providence Friars. All of these projections for Providence are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Providence Record and Rankings

Record: 1-1
Projected Final Record: 16.0-14.0

Big East Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Big East Record: 7.8-10.2
Projected Final Rank in the Big East: 6

Providence Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 71
RPI Rank: 130
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Providence Friars a 12.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 48.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 39.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Providence’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 3.2%
NIT #2 Seed 8.4%
NIT #3 Seed 14.2%
NIT #4 Seed 14.4%
NIT #5 Seed 8.4%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Providence Friars. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Providence Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 246 Siena Home W 77-67
11/9 88 Wichita St Neutral L 80-83
11/13 167 Holy Cross Home 84.7%
11/17 112 South Carolina Neutral 58.5%
11/24 140 Iona Home 85.4%
11/27 288 F Dickinson Home 97.1%
12/1 47 Rhode Island Home 49.6%
12/4 69 Boston College Away 37.6%
12/7 218 Massachusetts Home 92%
12/16 255 Central Conn Home 93%
12/18 201 Albany NY Home 92%
12/21 54 Texas Away 33.6%
12/31 53 Creighton Home 56.9%
1/5 2 Villanova Home 19.8%
1/12 124 Georgetown Away 57.1%
1/15 27 Seton Hall Home 44.1%
1/20 31 Marquette Away 21.8%
1/23 50 Xavier Away 41.8%
1/27 98 DePaul Home 73.3%
1/30 27 Seton Hall Away 18.4%
2/2 98 DePaul Away 48.2%
2/6 124 Georgetown Home 83%
2/9 72 St John’s Away 38.5%
2/13 2 Villanova Away 6.6%
2/16 50 Xavier Home 64.5%
2/20 72 St John’s Home 61.8%
2/23 31 Marquette Home 48.2%
2/26 28 Butler Away 18.9%
3/6 53 Creighton Away 33.6%
3/9 28 Butler Home 44.3%