Providence Friars Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Providence Friars. All of these projections for Providence are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Providence Record and Rankings

Record: 18-15
Projected Final Record: 18.0-15.0

Big East Conference Record: 7-11
Projected Final Big East Record: 7.0-11.0
Projected Final Rank in the Big East: 8

Providence Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 66
RPI Rank: 87
NET Rank: 70
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-8 6-3 3-3 7-1
Win % by Tier 0.200 0.667 0.500 0.875

Our current projections give the Providence Friars a 1.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 88.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 10.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Providence’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.4%
NIT #2 Seed 1.6%
NIT #3 Seed 5.0%
NIT #4 Seed 14.2%
NIT #5 Seed 32.4%
NIT #6 Seed 28.8%
NIT #7 Seed 5.8%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Providence Friars. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Providence Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 234 Siena Home W 77-67
11/9 74 Wichita St Neutral L 80-83
11/13 232 Holy Cross Home W 70-61
11/17 65 South Carolina Neutal W 76-67
11/18 8 Michigan Neutral L 47-66
11/24 195 Iona Home W 91-79
11/27 202 F Dickinson Home W 69-59
12/1 129 Rhode Island Home W 59-50
12/4 119 Boston College Away W 100-95
12/7 239 Massachusetts Home L 78-79
12/16 322 Central Conn Home W 87-63
12/18 281 Albany NY Home W 73-43
12/21 40 Texas Away W 71-65
12/31 52 Creighton Home L 68-79
1/5 22 Villanova Home L 59-65
1/12 68 Georgetown Away L 90-96
1/15 41 Seton Hall Home W 72-63
1/20 27 Marquette Away L 68-79
1/23 60 Xavier Away W 64-62
1/27 92 DePaul Home W 70-67
1/30 41 Seton Hall Away L 63-65
2/2 92 DePaul Away L 55-67
2/6 68 Georgetown Home L 67-76
2/9 61 St John’s Away W 70-56
2/13 22 Villanova Away L 67-85
2/16 60 Xavier Home L 61-75
2/20 61 St John’s Home W 78-59
2/23 27 Marquette Home L 58-76
2/26 72 Butler Away W 73-67
3/6 52 Creighton Away L 70-76
3/9 72 Butler Home W 83-70
3/13 72 Butler Neutal W 80-57
3/14 22 Villanova Neutral L 62-73