Providence Friars Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Providence Friars. All of these projections for Providence are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Providence Record and Rankings

Record: 17-10
Projected Final Record: 18.7-12.3

Big East Conference Record: 8-6
Projected Final Big East Record: 9.7-8.3
Projected Final Rank in the Big East: 5

Providence Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 55
RPI Rank: 36
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 11 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 5-6 3-1 5-2 4-1
Win % by Tier 0.455 0.750 0.714 0.800

Our current projections give the Providence Friars a 43.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 41.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 14.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Providence’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 5.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 6.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 7.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 10.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 9.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 13.2%
NIT #2 Seed 11.2%
NIT #3 Seed 6.4%
NIT #4 Seed 6.4%
NIT #5 Seed 4.6%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Providence Friars. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Providence Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 337 Houston Bap Home W 84-55
11/13 96 Minnesota Home L 74-86
11/16 69 Washington New York, NY W 77-70
11/17 120 St Louis New York, NY W 90-63
11/22 85 Belmont Home W 66-65
11/25 82 Boston College Home W 86-66
11/29 108 Rider Home W 88-84
12/2 19 Rhode Island Away L 68-75
12/6 257 Brown Home W 77-72
12/9 197 Massachusetts Away L 63-72
12/17 269 Stony Brook Home W 62-60
12/20 22 Houston Uncasville, CT L 59-70
12/22 324 Sacred Heart Home W 89-75
12/28 64 St John’s Away W 94-72
12/31 24 Creighton Away L 64-83
1/3 47 Marquette Home L 90-95
1/6 5 Xavier Home W 81-72
1/12 102 DePaul Away W 71-64
1/15 29 Butler Home W 70-60
1/20 24 Creighton Home W 85-71
1/23 2 Villanova Away L 69-89
1/31 36 Seton Hall Away L 57-73
2/3 47 Marquette Away W 77-75
2/6 77 Georgetown Home W 73-69
2/10 102 DePaul Home L 63-80
2/14 2 Villanova Home W 76-71
2/17 29 Butler Away L 54-69
2/21 36 Seton Hall Home 46.3%
2/24 77 Georgetown Away 43.5%
2/28 5 Xavier Away 14.1%
3/3 64 St John’s Home 61.5%