Purdue Boilermakers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Purdue Boilermakers. All of these projections for Purdue are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Purdue Record and Rankings

Record: 12-6
Projected Final Record: 20.2-10.8

Big Ten Conference Record: 5-2
Projected Final Big Ten Record: 13.2-6.8
Projected Final Rank in the Big Ten: 4

Purdue Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 15
RPI Rank: 18
NET Rank: 18
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 3 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 4-5 2-0 3-1 3-0
Win % by Tier 0.444 1.000 0.750 1.000

Our current projections give the Purdue Boilermakers a 94.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 2.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 3.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Purdue’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 5.2%
NCAA #2 Seed 15.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 23.8%
NCAA #4 Seed 15.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 11.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 9.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 6.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.2%
NIT #3 Seed 0.2%
NIT #4 Seed 0.6%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Purdue Boilermakers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Purdue Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 289 Fairfield Home W 90-57
11/10 93 Ball St Home W 84-75
11/15 303 Appalachian St Neutal W 92-70
11/16 69 Davidson Neutal W 79-58
11/18 11 Virginia Tech Neutral L 83-89
11/23 262 Robert Morris Home W 84-46
11/28 27 Florida St Away L 72-73
12/1 6 Michigan Away L 57-76
12/6 12 Maryland Home W 62-60
12/9 36 Texas Away L 68-72
12/15 82 Notre Dame Neutral L 80-88
12/20 150 Ohio Home W 95-67
12/29 85 Belmont Home W 73-62
1/3 24 Iowa Home W 86-70
1/8 2 Michigan St Away L 59-77
1/11 26 Wisconsin Away W 84-80
1/15 126 Rutgers Home W 89-54
1/19 34 Indiana Home W 70-55
1/23 39 Ohio St Away 56.1%
1/27 2 Michigan St Home 38.5%
1/31 83 Penn St Away 65.3%
2/3 43 Minnesota Home 84.5%
2/9 19 Nebraska Home 62.8%
2/12 12 Maryland Away 38.5%
2/16 83 Penn St Home 87.8%
2/19 34 Indiana Away 54.4%
2/23 19 Nebraska Away 39.9%
2/27 125 Illinois Home 92%
3/2 39 Ohio St Home 80.4%
3/5 43 Minnesota Away 57.8%
3/9 61 Northwestern Away 60.8%