Saint Mary’s College Gaels Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Saint Mary’s College Gaels. All of these projections for St Mary’s CA are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

St Mary’s CA Record and Rankings

Record: 13-7
Projected Final Record: 20.2-10.8

WCC Conference Record: 4-1
Projected Final WCC Record: 11.2-4.8
Projected Final Rank in the WCC: 3

St Mary’s CA Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 56
RPI Rank: 82
NET Rank: 54
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Next 4 Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-3 2-2 4-2 6-0
Win % by Tier 0.250 0.500 0.667 1.000

Our current projections give the Saint Mary’s College Gaels a 24.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 60.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 14.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account St Mary’s CA’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 3.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 4.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 6.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 9.6%
NIT #2 Seed 13.4%
NIT #3 Seed 14.2%
NIT #4 Seed 12.6%
NIT #5 Seed 6.0%
NIT #6 Seed 4.0%
NIT #7 Seed 1.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Saint Mary’s College Gaels. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

St Mary’s CA Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/7 320 McNeese St Home W 87-65
11/11 114 Utah Valley Home W 92-63
11/14 77 New Mexico St Away W 73-58
11/19 57 Utah St Neutral L 63-80
11/21 28 Mississippi St Neutral L 57-61
11/24 145 Harvard Home L 68-74
11/28 107 UC Irvine Home L 75-80
12/1 255 California Home W 84-71
12/4 312 Bethune-Cookman Home W 93-61
12/7 176 New Mexico Neutal W 85-60
12/10 210 CS Fullerton Home W 81-66
12/15 16 LSU Neutral L 74-78
12/19 138 Bucknell Home W 85-56
12/22 127 WKU Away L 68-71
12/29 331 San Jose St Home W 75-45
1/3 45 San Francisco Away L 72-76
1/5 112 BYU Home W 88-66
1/12 143 Loy Marymount Away W 71-60
1/17 185 Santa Clara Home W 75-55
1/19 128 San Diego Home W 76-59
1/24 112 BYU Away 57.8%
1/26 189 Pepperdine Away 78.2%
2/2 45 San Francisco Home 60.1%
2/7 179 Pacific Home 92%
2/9 5 Gonzaga Away 8%
2/14 185 Santa Clara Away 74.8%
2/16 189 Pepperdine Home 92%
2/21 179 Pacific Away 71.2%
2/23 128 San Diego Away 59.5%
2/28 316 Portland Home 98.5%
3/2 5 Gonzaga Home 28.8%