Saint Mary’s College Gaels Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Saint Mary’s College Gaels. All of these projections for St Mary’s CA are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/19/2018.

St Mary’s CA Record and Rankings

Record: 25-4
Projected Final Record: 26.9-4.1

WCC Conference Record: 14-2
Projected Final WCC Record: 15.9-2.1
Projected Final Rank in the WCC: 2

St Mary’s CA Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 33
RPI Rank: 31
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 11 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-0 2-2 12-2 10-0
Win % by Tier 1.000 0.500 0.857 1.000

Our current projections give the Saint Mary’s College Gaels a 75.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 20.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 4.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account St Mary’s CA’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #5 Seed 6.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 9.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 7.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 7.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 6.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 11.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 21.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 6.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 7.4%
NIT #2 Seed 3.4%
NIT #3 Seed 0.8%
NIT #4 Seed 2.0%
NIT #5 Seed 6.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.6%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Saint Mary’s College Gaels. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

St Mary’s CA Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/11 208 St Francis PA Home W 85-68
11/13 66 New Mexico St Home W 92-74
11/15 142 CS Fullerton Home W 76-57
11/19 321 San Jose St Away W 79-61
11/23 153 Harvard Fullerton, CA W 89-71
11/24 176 Washington St Fullerton, CA L 79-84
11/26 58 Georgia Fullerton, CA L 81-83
12/2 191 California Away W 74-63
12/4 289 CS Sacramento Home W 70-54
12/9 159 Seattle Home W 97-73
12/16 156 UC Irvine Home W 73-66
12/19 143 Dayton Home W 69-54
12/22 173 UNC Asheville Home W 95-69
12/28 262 Loy Marymount Home W 87-59
12/30 87 BYU Away W 74-64
1/4 168 Pacific Home W 74-56
1/6 146 San Diego Home W 70-63
1/11 221 Santa Clara Away W 81-57
1/13 325 Pepperdine Away W 91-67
1/18 13 Gonzaga Away W 74-71
1/20 168 Pacific Away W 72-69
1/25 87 BYU Home W 75-62
1/27 253 Portland Home W 72-55
2/1 140 San Francisco Home W 79-43
2/3 146 San Diego Away W 65-62
2/8 262 Loy Marymount Away W 83-62
2/10 13 Gonzaga Home L 65-78
2/15 140 San Francisco Away L 63-70
2/17 253 Portland Away W 73-61
2/22 325 Pepperdine Home 98.6%
2/24 221 Santa Clara Home 95.1%