Saint Mary’s College Gaels Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Saint Mary’s College Gaels. All of these projections for St Mary’s CA are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

St Mary’s CA Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 23.7-6.3

WCC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final WCC Record: 12.0-4.0
Projected Final Rank in the WCC: 2

St Mary’s CA Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 35
RPI Rank: 142
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Next 4 Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 1-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Saint Mary’s College Gaels a 6.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 52.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 40.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account St Mary’s CA’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.2%
NIT #2 Seed 3.2%
NIT #3 Seed 13.8%
NIT #4 Seed 19.0%
NIT #5 Seed 14.6%
NIT #6 Seed 0.6%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Saint Mary’s College Gaels. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

St Mary’s CA Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/7 317 McNeese St Home W 87-65
11/11 183 Utah Valley Home W 92-63
11/14 36 New Mexico St Away 36.9%
11/19 165 Utah St Neutral 86.6%
11/24 147 Harvard Home 90.6%
11/28 92 UC Irvine Home 83.3%
12/1 282 California Home 98.7%
12/4 298 Bethune-Cookman Home 98.7%
12/7 134 New Mexico Neutral 83.3%
12/10 161 CS Fullerton Home 92.2%
12/15 51 LSU Neutal 58.1%
12/19 95 Bucknell Home 82.3%
12/22 73 WKU Away 55.9%
12/29 341 San Jose St Home 99.4%
1/3 104 San Francisco Away 61.8%
1/5 93 BYU Home 83.5%
1/12 155 Loy Marymount Away 74.3%
1/17 285 Santa Clara Home 98.6%
1/19 106 San Diego Home 85.9%
1/24 93 BYU Away 58.5%
1/26 243 Pepperdine Away 83%
2/2 104 San Francisco Home 86.1%
2/7 188 Pacific Home 93%
2/9 3 Gonzaga Away 11.9%
2/14 285 Santa Clara Away 92.1%
2/16 243 Pepperdine Home 94.4%
2/21 188 Pacific Away 80.2%
2/23 106 San Diego Away 61.8%
2/28 284 Portland Home 98.6%
3/2 3 Gonzaga Home 35.5%