Saint Mary’s College Gaels Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Saint Mary’s College Gaels. All of these projections for St Mary’s CA are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

St Mary’s CA Record and Rankings

Record: 29-5
Projected Final Record: 29.8-5.2

WCC Conference Record: 17-3
Projected Final WCC Record: 17.0-3.0
Projected Final Rank in the WCC: 2

St Mary’s CA Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 43
RPI Rank: 40
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 11 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-1 2-2 10-2 14-0
Win % by Tier 0.667 0.500 0.833 1.000

Our current projections give the Saint Mary’s College Gaels a 55.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 32.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 12.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account St Mary’s CA’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 5.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 7.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 3.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 4.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 29.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 5.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 19.4%
NIT #2 Seed 11.4%
NIT #3 Seed 1.6%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Saint Mary’s College Gaels. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

St Mary’s CA Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/11 208 St Francis PA Home W 85-68
11/13 55 New Mexico St Home W 92-74
11/15 144 CS Fullerton Home W 76-57
11/19 313 San Jose St Away W 79-61
11/23 149 Harvard Fullerton, CA W 89-71
11/24 159 Washington St Fullerton, CA L 79-84
11/26 58 Georgia Fullerton, CA L 81-83
12/2 203 California Away W 74-63
12/4 300 CS Sacramento Home W 70-54
12/9 174 Seattle Home W 97-73
12/16 148 UC Irvine Home W 73-66
12/19 158 Dayton Home W 69-54
12/22 180 UNC Asheville Home W 95-69
12/28 236 Loy Marymount Home W 87-59
12/30 79 BYU Away W 74-64
1/4 186 Pacific Home W 74-56
1/6 145 San Diego Home W 70-63
1/11 248 Santa Clara Away W 81-57
1/13 292 Pepperdine Away W 91-67
1/18 11 Gonzaga Away W 74-71
1/20 186 Pacific Away W 72-69
1/25 79 BYU Home W 75-62
1/27 273 Portland Home W 72-55
2/1 147 San Francisco Home W 79-43
2/3 145 San Diego Away W 65-62
2/8 236 Loy Marymount Away W 83-62
2/10 11 Gonzaga Home L 65-78
2/15 147 San Francisco Away L 63-70
2/17 273 Portland Away W 73-61
2/22 292 Pepperdine Home W 75-61
2/24 248 Santa Clara Home W 67-40
3/3 292 Pepperdine Las Vegas, NV W 69-66
3/5 79 BYU Las Vegas, NV L 72-85
3/13 182 SE Louisiana Home W 89-45
3/19 80 Washington Home 81.6%