San Diego State Aztecs Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the San Diego State Aztecs. All of these projections for San Diego St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

San Diego St Record and Rankings

Record: 22-11
Projected Final Record: 22.0-11.0

Mountain West Conference Record: 14-7
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 14.0-7.0
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 5

San Diego St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 64
RPI Rank: 63
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 11 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 3-3 2-4 8-2 8-1
Win % by Tier 0.500 0.333 0.800 0.889

Our current projections give the San Diego State Aztecs a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account San Diego St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 98.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the San Diego State Aztecs. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

San Diego St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 No Rank San Diego Chr Home W 91-52
11/14 53 Arizona St Away L 68-90
11/17 305 McNeese St Home W 83-52
11/20 254 E Illinois Home W 94-63
11/23 300 CS Sacramento Fullerton, CA W 89-52
11/24 58 Georgia Fullerton, CA W 75-68
11/26 159 Washington St Fullerton, CA L 86-93
11/30 145 San Diego Away W 66-57
12/3 125 Bradley Home W 75-52
12/9 203 California Home L 62-63
12/21 11 Gonzaga Home W 72-70
12/27 109 Wyoming Away L 69-82
12/30 141 Utah St Home W 79-59
1/2 215 Colorado St Away W 77-68
1/9 313 San Jose St Home W 85-49
1/13 66 Boise St Away L 80-83
1/17 89 Fresno St Home L 73-77
1/20 99 New Mexico Away L 75-79
1/24 215 Colorado St Home W 97-78
1/27 102 UNLV Away L 78-88
2/3 218 Air Force Home W 81-50
2/6 89 Fresno St Away L 61-79
2/10 34 Nevada Away L 58-83
2/14 109 Wyoming Home W 87-77
2/17 102 UNLV Home W 94-56
2/21 218 Air Force Away W 67-56
2/24 313 San Jose St Away W 71-59
2/27 66 Boise St Home W 72-64
3/3 34 Nevada Home W 79-74
3/8 89 Fresno St Las Vegas, NV W 64-52
3/9 34 Nevada Las Vegas, NV W 90-73
3/10 99 New Mexico Las Vegas, NV W 82-75
3/15 21 Houston NCAA Tournament Wichita KS L 65-67