San Diego State Aztecs Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the San Diego State Aztecs. All of these projections for San Diego St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 12/17/2018.

San Diego St Record and Rankings

Record: 6-4
Projected Final Record: 19.6-11.4

Mountain West Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 11.2-6.8
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 4

San Diego St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 90
RPI Rank: 135
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 1-2 2-1 2-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.333 0.667 1.000

Our current projections give the San Diego State Aztecs a 14.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 15.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 69.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account San Diego St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 3.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.2%
NIT #1 Seed 2.4%
NIT #2 Seed 3.2%
NIT #3 Seed 1.8%
NIT #4 Seed 3.0%
NIT #5 Seed 1.6%
NIT #6 Seed 3.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.6%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the San Diego State Aztecs. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

San Diego St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 262 Ark Pine Bluff Home W 76-60
11/14 159 TX Southern Home W 103-64
11/19 1 Duke Neutral L 64-90
11/20 63 Xavier Neutal W 79-74
11/21 31 Iowa St Neutral L 57-87
11/27 335 Jackson St Home W 87-44
12/1 165 Illinois St Away W 75-65
12/5 66 San Diego Home L 61-73
12/8 175 California Away L 83-89
12/12 No Rank CS Dom. Hills Home W 99-46
12/22 83 BYU Home 58.2%
12/29 168 Brown Home 85.4%
1/1 300 CS Northridge Home 96.4%
1/5 191 Boise St Away 62.8%
1/8 257 Wyoming Home 92.6%
1/12 259 Air Force Away 78.2%
1/15 150 New Mexico Home 81.6%
1/22 69 Fresno St Away 31.7%
1/26 138 UNLV Home 78.2%
1/30 259 Air Force Home 92.6%
2/2 320 San Jose St Away 88.9%
2/5 150 New Mexico Away 55.5%
2/9 39 Utah St Home 44.1%
2/12 230 Colorado St Away 68.3%
2/16 191 Boise St Home 85.9%
2/20 9 Nevada Home 26.6%
2/23 138 UNLV Away 50.4%
2/26 39 Utah St Away 19.4%
3/2 320 San Jose St Home 93.8%
3/6 69 Fresno St Home 56.7%
3/9 9 Nevada Away 8.2%