San Diego Toreros Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the San Diego Toreros. All of these projections for San Diego are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

San Diego Record and Rankings

Record: 12-6
Projected Final Record: 17.9-13.1

WCC Conference Record: 1-2
Projected Final WCC Record: 6.9-9.1
Projected Final Rank in the WCC: 5

San Diego Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 129
RPI Rank: 82
NET Rank: 113
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 0-2 4-1 7-1
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.800 0.875

Our current projections give the San Diego Toreros a 3.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 4.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 92.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account San Diego’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.8%
NIT #2 Seed 0.8%
NIT #3 Seed 0.2%
NIT #4 Seed 0.8%
NIT #5 Seed 1.6%
NIT #6 Seed 0.4%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the San Diego Toreros. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

San Diego Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 177 Weber St Home W 83-66
11/9 274 UC Davis Away W 76-57
11/12 41 Washington Away L 63-66
11/15 No Rank San Diego Chr Home W 95-47
11/20 108 Colorado Home W 70-64
11/24 327 Jackson St Home W 76-58
11/28 28 Mississippi Away L 86-93
12/1 180 Long Beach St Home W 74-70
12/5 151 San Diego St Away W 73-61
12/9 273 CS Northridge Home W 82-68
12/12 81 Oregon Away L 55-65
12/15 200 N Colorado Home W 85-65
12/22 215 Washington St Neutal W 82-75
12/23 122 Drake Neutral L 103-110
12/29 105 Grand Canyon Home W 61-58
1/3 192 Santa Clara Away L 56-68
1/5 169 Pacific Home W 73-64
1/12 182 Pepperdine Home L 71-76
1/17 310 Portland Away 79.7%
1/19 64 St Mary’s CA Away 18.9%
1/24 143 Loy Marymount Home 69.9%
1/26 52 San Francisco Home 42.5%
2/2 6 Gonzaga Away 4.9%
2/7 143 Loy Marymount Away 46.3%
2/9 182 Pepperdine Away 56.1%
2/14 116 BYU Home 58.8%
2/16 6 Gonzaga Home 17.4%
2/21 310 Portland Home 92.2%
2/23 64 St Mary’s CA Home 44.3%
2/28 52 San Francisco Away 18.9%
3/2 116 BYU Away 37.2%