San Diego Toreros Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the San Diego Toreros. All of these projections for San Diego are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 12/10/2018.

San Diego Record and Rankings

Record: 8-2
Projected Final Record: 20.0-10.0

WCC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final WCC Record: 9.3-6.7
Projected Final Rank in the WCC: 3

San Diego Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 61
RPI Rank: 68
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 1-0 2-0 4-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the San Diego Toreros a 14.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 37.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 48.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account San Diego’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 3.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 3.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 5.4%
NIT #2 Seed 5.6%
NIT #3 Seed 7.2%
NIT #4 Seed 8.2%
NIT #5 Seed 6.2%
NIT #6 Seed 4.0%
NIT #7 Seed 1.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the San Diego Toreros. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

San Diego Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 184 Weber St Home W 83-66
11/9 249 UC Davis Away W 76-57
11/12 44 Washington Away L 63-66
11/15 No Rank San Diego Chr Home W 95-47
11/20 58 Colorado Home W 70-64
11/24 338 Jackson St Home W 76-58
11/28 48 Mississippi Away L 86-93
12/1 205 Long Beach St Home W 74-70
12/5 89 San Diego St Away W 73-61
12/9 291 CS Northridge Home W 82-68
12/12 51 Oregon Away 32.1%
12/15 91 N Colorado Home 73.8%
12/22 179 Washington St Neutral 81.9%
12/29 157 Grand Canyon Home 85.9%
1/3 290 Santa Clara Away 87.5%
1/5 164 Pacific Home 86.6%
1/12 195 Pepperdine Home 91.7%
1/17 238 Portland Away 79.2%
1/19 69 St Mary’s CA Away 39.2%
1/24 83 Loy Marymount Home 65.6%
1/26 39 San Francisco Home 52.2%
2/2 4 Gonzaga Away 7.8%
2/7 83 Loy Marymount Away 43.1%
2/9 195 Pepperdine Away 66.4%
2/14 65 BYU Home 61.8%
2/16 4 Gonzaga Home 25.7%
2/21 238 Portland Home 92%
2/23 69 St Mary’s CA Home 61.8%
2/28 39 San Francisco Away 29.4%
3/2 65 BYU Away 39.2%