San Francisco Dons Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the San Francisco Dons. All of these projections for San Francisco are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

San Francisco Record and Rankings

Record: 21-10
Projected Final Record: 21.0-10.0

WCC Conference Record: 9-7
Projected Final WCC Record: 9.0-7.0
Projected Final Rank in the WCC: 4

San Francisco Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 94
RPI Rank: 89
NET Rank: 74
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-4 3-1 3-5 13-0
Win % by Tier 0.200 0.750 0.375 1.000

Our current projections give the San Francisco Dons a 0.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 57.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 42.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account San Francisco’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.8%
NIT #2 Seed 1.0%
NIT #3 Seed 1.4%
NIT #4 Seed 1.4%
NIT #5 Seed 3.6%
NIT #6 Seed 32.8%
NIT #7 Seed 16.4%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the San Francisco Dons. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

San Francisco Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 260 UC Davis Away W 76-42
11/10 336 Maine Home W 93-50
11/12 No Rank Sonoma St Home W 88-54
11/18 263 LIU Brooklyn Neutal W 84-52
11/21 101 Harvard Home W 61-57
11/24 245 Dartmouth Home W 84-65
11/30 298 SF Austin Neutal W 76-58
12/1 18 Buffalo Neutral L 81-85
12/5 230 California Away W 79-60
12/13 233 E Washington Home W 85-63
12/16 190 CS Fullerton Home W 68-54
12/19 304 Northern Arizona Home W 76-60
12/22 135 Stanford Home W 74-65
12/29 176 UC Santa Barbara Away L 71-73
1/3 39 St Mary’s CA Home W 76-72
1/5 167 Pepperdine Away W 72-69
1/12 7 Gonzaga Home L 83-96
1/17 199 Pacific Away W 53-52
1/19 90 BYU Home W 82-63
1/24 329 Portland Home W 83-61
1/26 102 San Diego Away L 63-67
2/2 39 St Mary’s CA Away L 80-86
2/7 7 Gonzaga Away L 62-92
2/9 172 Santa Clara Home W 78-72
2/14 167 Pepperdine Home W 89-77
2/16 329 Portland Away W 68-63
2/21 90 BYU Away W 77-71
2/23 172 Santa Clara Away L 65-68
2/28 102 San Diego Home L 90-91
3/2 134 Loy Marymount Home L 69-74
3/9 167 Pepperdine Neutral L 72-89