San Francisco Dons Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the San Francisco Dons. All of these projections for San Francisco are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

San Francisco Record and Rankings

Record: 16-3
Projected Final Record: 23.9-6.1

WCC Conference Record: 4-1
Projected Final WCC Record: 11.9-4.1
Projected Final Rank in the WCC: 2

San Francisco Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 45
RPI Rank: 59
NET Rank: 48
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 12 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 0-0 7-1 8-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.875 1.000

Our current projections give the San Francisco Dons a 42.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 42.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 15.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account San Francisco’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 6.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 10.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 12.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 8.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 13.2%
NIT #2 Seed 11.0%
NIT #3 Seed 8.4%
NIT #4 Seed 5.2%
NIT #5 Seed 3.2%
NIT #6 Seed 1.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the San Francisco Dons. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

San Francisco Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 274 UC Davis Away W 76-42
11/10 326 Maine Home W 93-50
11/12 No Rank Sonoma St Home W 88-54
11/18 253 LIU Brooklyn Neutal W 84-52
11/21 145 Harvard Home W 61-57
11/24 199 Dartmouth Home W 84-65
11/30 257 SF Austin Neutal W 76-58
12/1 9 Buffalo Neutral L 81-85
12/5 255 California Away W 79-60
12/13 291 E Washington Home W 85-63
12/16 210 CS Fullerton Home W 68-54
12/19 296 Northern Arizona Home W 76-60
12/22 130 Stanford Home W 74-65
12/29 132 UC Santa Barbara Away L 71-73
1/3 56 St Mary’s CA Home W 76-72
1/5 189 Pepperdine Away W 72-69
1/12 5 Gonzaga Home L 83-96
1/17 179 Pacific Away W 53-52
1/19 112 BYU Home W 82-63
1/24 316 Portland Home 98.7%
1/26 128 San Diego Away 61.5%
2/2 56 St Mary’s CA Away 39.9%
2/7 5 Gonzaga Away 8%
2/9 185 Santa Clara Home 92.2%
2/14 189 Pepperdine Home 92.2%
2/16 316 Portland Away 92.1%
2/21 112 BYU Away 57.5%
2/23 185 Santa Clara Away 74.8%
2/28 128 San Diego Home 84.2%
3/2 143 Loy Marymount Home 86.6%