SEC Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Southeastern Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the SEC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2018.

SEC Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Auburn 23 4 25.8 5.2 11 3 13.8 4.2
2 Tennessee 19 7 21.6 8.4 9 5 11.6 6.4
3 Florida 17 10 18.9 12.1 8 6 9.9 8.1
4 Kentucky 19 9 20.8 10.2 8 7 9.8 8.2
5 Alabama 17 10 18.7 12.3 8 6 9.7 8.3
6 Mississippi St 20 8 21.6 9.4 8 7 9.6 8.4
7 Missouri 18 10 19.5 11.5 8 7 9.5 8.5
8 Arkansas 19 9 20.3 10.7 8 7 9.3 8.7
9 LSU 16 11 17.4 12.6 7 8 8.4 9.6
10 Texas A&M 17 11 18.8 12.2 6 9 7.8 10.2
11 Georgia 15 11 16.7 13.3 6 8 7.7 10.3
12 South Carolina 14 13 15.6 15.4 5 9 6.6 11.4
13 Vanderbilt 11 17 12.3 18.7 5 10 6.3 11.7
14 Mississippi 12 16 13.1 17.9 5 10 6.1 11.9

Projected SEC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Southeastern Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Auburn 2 9.759
Tennessee 4 8.322
Kentucky 5 7.386
Florida 6 6.754
Alabama 7 6.518
Texas A&M 8 6.414
Arkansas 8 6.379
Missouri 10 6.038
Mississippi St 11 5.261
LSU Last 4 Out 4.948
Georgia Next 4 Out 4.22

SEC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Southeastern Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each SEC team. The top four teams in the SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament gets byes into the Quarterfinals.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Scottrade Center (St. Louis, MO)
First Round: March 7th, 2018
Second Round: March 8th, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 9th, 2018
Semifinals: March 10th, 2018
Finals: March 11th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
2nd Rd Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Auburn
100%
100%
69.6%
47.8%
29.5%
2
Tennessee
100%
100%
58.1%
33.6%
16%
3
Florida
100%
100%
65.1%
33.2%
16.5%
4
Kentucky
100%
100%
59.3%
23.9%
12.8%
5
Alabama
100%
61.7%
27.9%
9%
4.3%
6
Mississippi St
100%
55%
22%
8.5%
2.3%
7
Missouri
100%
46.6%
18.8%
9.3%
4.2%
8
Arkansas
100%
63.2%
20.5%
11.6%
5.7%
9
LSU
100%
36.8%
9.9%
4%
1.4%
10
Texas A&M
100%
53.4%
23.1%
12.3%
5.7%
11
Georgia
62.5%
28.6%
8.7%
2.3%
0.5%
12
South Carolina
55.3%
22.1%
7.9%
2.4%
0.8%
13
Vanderbilt
44.7%
16.2%
4.9%
1.3%
0.3%
14
Mississippi
37.5%
16.4%
4.2%
0.8%
0%

SEC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 Georgia 42.2% South Carolina 57.8% South Carolina wins by 3
2/21 Florida 36.9% Tennessee 63.1% Tennessee wins by 5
2/21 Alabama 17.7% Auburn 82.3% Auburn wins by 10
2/24 Auburn 51.8% Florida 48.2% Auburn wins by 1
2/24 LSU 39.2% Georgia 60.8% Georgia wins by 4
2/24 Missouri 37.2% Kentucky 62.8% Kentucky wins by 5
2/24 Arkansas 42.2% Alabama 57.8% Alabama wins by 3
2/24 Tennessee 62.5% Mississippi 37.6% Tennessee wins by 4
2/24 South Carolina 29% Mississippi St 71% Mississippi St wins by 7
2/24 Texas A&M 56.7% Vanderbilt 43.3% Texas A&M wins by 3
2/27 Florida 44.9% Alabama 55.1% Alabama wins by 2
2/27 Auburn 55.5% Arkansas 44.5% Auburn wins by 2
2/27 Tennessee 52.9% Mississippi St 47.1% Tennessee wins by 1
2/27 Missouri 55.1% Vanderbilt 44.9% Missouri wins by 2
2/28 Texas A&M 52.9% Georgia 47.1% Texas A&M wins by 1
2/28 Mississippi 15.8% Kentucky 84.2% Kentucky wins by 11
2/28 LSU 42.5% South Carolina 57.5% South Carolina wins by 3
3/3 Kentucky 35.9% Florida 64.1% Florida wins by 5

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC