SEC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Southeastern Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the SEC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/14/2019.

SEC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Tennessee 23 1 27.9 3.1 11 0 15.9 2.1
2 LSU 20 4 25 6 10 1 15 3
3 Kentucky 20 4 24.8 6.2 9 2 13.8 4.2
4 Mississippi 17 7 21.1 9.9 7 4 11.1 6.9
5 South Carolina 12 12 15.3 15.7 7 4 10.3 7.7
6 Alabama 15 9 18.9 12.1 6 5 9.9 8.1
7 Mississippi St 17 7 21.3 9.7 5 6 9.3 8.7
8 Auburn 16 8 19.9 11.1 5 6 8.9 9.1
9 Florida 13 11 16.4 14.6 5 6 8.4 9.6
10 Arkansas 14 10 17 14 5 6 8 10
11 Texas A&M 10 13 12.7 17.3 3 8 5.7 12.3
12 Missouri 12 11 14.1 15.9 3 8 5.1 12.9
13 Georgia 10 14 11.9 19.1 1 10 2.9 15.1
14 Vanderbilt 9 15 10.6 20.4 0 11 1.6 16.4

Projected SEC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Southeastern Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Tennessee 1 13.567
Kentucky 2 12.521
LSU 3 11.003
Mississippi St 7 8.422
Mississippi 7 7.107
Auburn 8 6.726
Alabama 10 5.627
Arkansas Next 4 Out 3.603

Projected SEC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Southeastern Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Tennessee 69% 26% 4% 1% 100%
LSU 25% 48% 26% 1% 100%
Kentucky 6% 25% 63% 6% 100%
Mississippi 0% 1% 6% 43% 99%
South Carolina 0% 0% 1% 20% 89%
Alabama 0% 0% 0% 20% 86%
Mississippi St 0% 0% 0% 2% 79%
Auburn 0% 0% 0% 5% 67%
Florida 0% 0% 0% 0% 41%
Arkansas 0% 0% 0% 2% 38%
Texas A&M 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Missouri 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Georgia 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vanderbilt 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

SEC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Southeastern Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. After spending 2018 in the Scottrade Center, the tournament is back in Nashville through the 2021 season. The top four teams in the SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament gets byes into the Quarterfinals.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Bridgestone Arena (Nashville, TN)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Second Round: March 14th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 15th, 2019
Semifinals: March 16th, 2019
Finals: March 17th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
2nd Rd Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Tennessee
100%
100%
75.9%
59%
39.7%
2
LSU
100%
100%
65.5%
27%
10.9%
3
Kentucky
100%
100%
79.5%
55.3%
31.2%
4
Mississippi
100%
73%
38.4%
10.2%
2.7%
5
South Carolina
100%
61.9%
15.5%
3.1%
0.5%
6
Alabama
99.1%
69.6%
26.1%
7.5%
1.4%
7
Mississippi St
100%
74.1%
28.7%
10.8%
3.8%
8
Auburn
100%
74%
35%
17.9%
7.7%
9
Florida
100%
49%
12.5%
5.2%
1.6%
10
Arkansas
94.6%
36.5%
10.7%
2%
0.4%
11
Texas A&M
66.7%
21.7%
4.5%
1%
0.1%
12
Missouri
55.9%
17.4%
3.7%
0.3%
0%
13
Georgia
40.4%
10.9%
3.1%
0.6%
0%
14
Vanderbilt
43.3%
11.9%
0.9%
0.1%
0%

SEC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/16 Tennessee 48.5% Kentucky 51.5% Kentucky wins by 1
2/16 Texas A&M 36.9% South Carolina 63.1% South Carolina wins by 5
2/16 Missouri 15.3% Mississippi 84.7% Mississippi wins by 11
2/16 Auburn 72.1% Vanderbilt 27.9% Auburn wins by 7
2/16 LSU 77.2% Georgia 22.8% LSU wins by 8
2/16 Mississippi St 56.9% Arkansas 43.1% Mississippi St wins by 3
2/16 Florida 39.2% Alabama 60.8% Alabama wins by 4
2/19 Alabama 54.8% Texas A&M 45.2% Alabama wins by 2
2/19 Kentucky 79.7% Missouri 20.3% Kentucky wins by 9
2/19 Mississippi 57.1% South Carolina 42.9% Mississippi wins by 3
2/19 Vanderbilt 1.5% Tennessee 98.5% Tennessee wins by 21
2/20 Mississippi St 68.3% Georgia 31.7% Mississippi St wins by 6
2/20 Arkansas 17% Auburn 83% Auburn wins by 10
2/20 Florida 17.2% LSU 82.8% LSU wins by 10
2/23 South Carolina 14.8% Mississippi St 85.2% Mississippi St wins by 11
2/23 Auburn 17.7% Kentucky 82.3% Kentucky wins by 10
2/23 Georgia 12.7% Mississippi 87.3% Mississippi wins by 12
2/23 Vanderbilt 14.1% Alabama 85.9% Alabama wins by 11

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC