SEC Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Southeastern Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the SEC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 3/11/2018.

SEC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Auburn 25 7 25 7 13 6 13 6
2 Tennessee 25 7 25.5 7.5 15 5 15.5 5.5
3 Florida 20 12 20 12 11 8 11 8
4 Kentucky 23 10 23.5 10.5 12 8 12.5 8.5
5 Missouri 20 12 20 12 10 9 10 9
6 Arkansas 23 11 23 11 12 9 12 9
7 Mississippi St 22 11 22 11 10 10 10 10
8 Texas A&M 20 12 20 12 9 10 9 10
9 Alabama 19 15 19 15 10 11 10 11
10 LSU 17 14 17 14 8 11 8 11
11 South Carolina 17 16 17 16 8 12 8 12
12 Georgia 18 15 18 15 9 12 9 12
13 Vanderbilt 12 20 12 20 6 13 6 13
14 Mississippi 12 20 12 20 5 14 5 14

Projected SEC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Southeastern Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Tennessee 3 10.272
Auburn 3 9.859
Kentucky 5 8.64
Arkansas 6 7.511
Florida 6 7.404
Texas A&M 7 6.952
Missouri 8 6.501
Alabama 11 5.842

SEC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Southeastern Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each SEC team. The top four teams in the SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament gets byes into the Quarterfinals.

Regular Season Champion: Auburn
Tournament Site: Scottrade Center (St. Louis, MO)
First Round: March 7th, 2018
Second Round: March 8th, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 9th, 2018
Semifinals: March 10th, 2018
Finals: March 11th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
2nd Rd Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Auburn
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
2
Tennessee
100%
100%
100%
100%
54.5%
3
Florida
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
4
Kentucky
100%
100%
100%
100%
45.5%
5
Missouri
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
6
Arkansas
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
7
Mississippi St
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
8
Texas A&M
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
9
Alabama
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
10
LSU
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
11
South Carolina
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
12
Georgia
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
13
Vanderbilt
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
14
Mississippi
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

SEC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
3/11 Kentucky 46.4% Tennessee 53.6% Tennessee wins by 1

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC