SEC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Southeastern Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the SEC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/10/2018.

SEC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Tennessee 7 1 26.4 4.6 0 0 14.6 3.4
2 Auburn 8 1 25.1 5.9 0 0 13.7 4.3
3 Mississippi St 8 1 22.7 8.3 0 0 11.5 6.5
4 Kentucky 7 2 19.4 11.6 0 0 10.3 7.7
5 LSU 7 2 18.8 12.2 0 0 9.5 8.5
6 Florida 5 4 17.3 13.7 0 0 9.4 8.6
7 Arkansas 6 2 18.8 12.2 0 0 9.3 8.7
8 Mississippi 6 2 19.4 11.6 0 0 9 9
9 Alabama 6 3 16.1 14.9 0 0 7.8 10.2
10 Vanderbilt 6 2 16.8 14.2 0 0 7.8 10.2
11 Missouri 6 3 14.5 15.5 0 0 6.5 11.5
12 Texas A&M 3 4 12.3 17.7 0 0 6.3 11.7
13 Georgia 5 3 13.7 17.3 0 0 6.1 11.9
14 South Carolina 4 5 9.7 21.3 0 0 4.1 13.9

Projected SEC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Southeastern Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Tennessee 2 10.888
Auburn 4 8.763
Mississippi St 7 6.948
Kentucky 8 6.394
Florida 11 5.622
LSU 11 5.391
Mississippi 11 5.22
Arkansas Next 4 Out 4.81

Projected SEC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Southeastern Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Tennessee 66% 27% 3% 4% 100%
Auburn 19% 36% 22% 13% 100%
Mississippi St 8% 15% 20% 17% 96%
Kentucky 4% 7% 13% 15% 88%
LSU 1% 5% 11% 10% 72%
Florida 1% 2% 11% 17% 78%
Arkansas 1% 4% 4% 8% 67%
Mississippi 0% 3% 9% 8% 71%
Alabama 0% 0% 1% 3% 35%
Vanderbilt 0% 1% 4% 4% 47%
Missouri 0% 0% 1% 0% 13%
Texas A&M 0% 0% 1% 0% 20%
Georgia 0% 0% 0% 1% 11%
South Carolina 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%

SEC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Southeastern Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. After spending 2018 in the Scottrade Center, the tournament is back in Nashville through the 2021 season. The top four teams in the SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament gets byes into the Quarterfinals.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Bridgestone Arena (Nashville, TN)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Second Round: March 14th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 15th, 2019
Semifinals: March 16th, 2019
Finals: March 17th, 2019

Coming Soon!

SEC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
1/5 Kentucky 58.2% Alabama 41.8% Kentucky wins by 3
1/5 Georgia 3.6% Tennessee 96.4% Tennessee wins by 19
1/5 Mississippi 43.7% Vanderbilt 56.3% Vanderbilt wins by 2
1/5 South Carolina 8.3% Florida 91.7% Florida wins by 13
1/5 Arkansas 57.1% Texas A&M 42.9% Arkansas wins by 3
1/8 Texas A&M 12.2% Kentucky 87.8% Kentucky wins by 12
1/8 Tennessee 83% Missouri 17% Tennessee wins by 10
1/8 Mississippi St 80.9% South Carolina 19.1% Mississippi St wins by 9
1/8 Alabama 29.7% LSU 70.3% LSU wins by 7
1/9 Auburn 64.5% Mississippi 35.5% Auburn wins by 5
1/9 Vanderbilt 54% Georgia 46% Vanderbilt wins by 2
1/9 Florida 43.5% Arkansas 56.5% Arkansas wins by 2
1/12 Texas A&M 23.3% Alabama 76.7% Alabama wins by 8
1/12 Missouri 55.9% South Carolina 44.1% Missouri wins by 2
1/12 Georgia 6.6% Auburn 93.4% Auburn wins by 16
1/12 Mississippi 19.4% Mississippi St 80.6% Mississippi St wins by 9
1/12 Vanderbilt 18.4% Kentucky 81.6% Kentucky wins by 9
1/12 LSU 40.9% Arkansas 59.2% Arkansas wins by 3

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC