SEC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Southeastern Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the SEC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 3/17/2019.

SEC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 LSU 26 6 26 6 16 2 16 2
2 Kentucky 27 6 27 6 15 3 15 3
3 Tennessee 29 5 29 5 15 3 15 3
4 South Carolina 16 16 16 16 11 7 11 7
5 Auburn 26 9 26 9 11 7 11 7
6 Mississippi St 23 10 23 10 10 8 10 8
7 Mississippi 20 12 20 12 10 8 10 8
8 Florida 19 15 19 15 9 9 9 9
9 Arkansas 17 15 17 15 8 10 8 10
10 Alabama 18 15 18 15 8 10 8 10
11 Texas A&M 14 18 14 18 6 12 6 12
12 Missouri 15 17 15 17 5 13 5 13
13 Georgia 11 21 11 21 2 16 2 16
14 Vanderbilt 9 23 9 23 0 18 0 18

Projected SEC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Southeastern Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Tennessee 2 14.081
Kentucky 2 14.05
LSU 3 11.674
Auburn 5 9.582
Mississippi St 5 9.03
Mississippi 8 6.094
Florida 10 5.389
Alabama Next 4 Out 3.91

Projected SEC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Southeastern Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
LSU 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Kentucky 0% 100% 0% 0% 100%
Tennessee 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%
South Carolina 0% 0% 0% 100% 100%
Auburn 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Mississippi St 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Mississippi 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Florida 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Arkansas 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Alabama 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Texas A&M 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Missouri 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Georgia 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vanderbilt 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

SEC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Southeastern Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. After spending 2018 in the Scottrade Center, the tournament is back in Nashville through the 2021 season. The top four teams in the SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament gets byes into the Quarterfinals.

Regular Season Champion: LSU
Tournament Site: Bridgestone Arena (Nashville, TN)
First Round: March 13th, 2019
Second Round: March 14th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 15th, 2019
Semifinals: March 16th, 2019
Finals: March 17th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
2nd Rd Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
LSU
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
2
Kentucky
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
3
Tennessee
100%
100%
100%
100%
0%
4
South Carolina
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
5
Auburn
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
6
Mississippi St
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
7
Mississippi
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
8
Florida
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
9
Arkansas
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
10
Alabama
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
11
Texas A&M
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
12
Missouri
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
13
Georgia
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
14
Vanderbilt
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

SEC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC