SMU Mustangs Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the SMU Mustangs. All of these projections for SMU are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

SMU Record and Rankings

Record: 15-17
Projected Final Record: 15.0-17.0

AAC Conference Record: 6-12
Projected Final AAC Record: 6.0-12.0
Projected Final Rank in the AAC: 10

SMU Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 110
RPI Rank: 138
NET Rank: 98
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-10 2-3 5-4 8-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.400 0.556 1.000

Our current projections give the SMU Mustangs a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 99.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account SMU’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.2%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.2%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the SMU Mustangs. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

SMU Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/8 332 Northwestern LA Home W 69-58
11/11 114 Southern Miss Home L 64-74
11/14 289 W Carolina Home W 98-65
11/17 67 Lipscomb Home L 73-79
11/20 153 Bradley Neutral L 62-75
11/21 138 Wright St Neutal W 77-76
11/27 212 Lamar Home W 79-65
11/29 331 McNeese St Home W 91-59
12/2 292 Oral Roberts Home W 79-67
12/5 43 TCU Home L 59-67
12/15 68 Georgetown Away W 81-73
12/22 181 Cornell Home W 81-53
1/2 253 East Carolina Home W 82-54
1/4 313 Tulane Away W 74-65
1/10 106 Connecticut Away L 64-76
1/12 107 Tulsa Home W 77-57
1/16 9 Houston Home L 58-69
1/19 58 Memphis Away L 61-83
1/26 313 Tulane Home W 85-75
1/30 74 Wichita St Away L 83-85
2/2 24 Cincinnati Away L 68-73
2/7 122 South Florida Home L 66-67
2/10 35 UCF Home L 65-71
2/13 56 Temple Away L 74-82
2/21 106 Connecticut Home W 77-59
2/24 35 UCF Away L 48-95
2/27 24 Cincinnati Home L 49-52
3/3 74 Wichita St Home L 55-67
3/7 9 Houston Away L 79-90
3/10 122 South Florida Away W 77-71
3/14 107 Tulsa Neutal W 74-65
3/15 24 Cincinnati Neutral L 74-82