SMU Mustangs Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the SMU Mustangs. All of these projections for SMU are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/19/2018.

SMU Record and Rankings

Record: 15-12
Projected Final Record: 17.4-13.6

AAC Conference Record: 5-9
Projected Final AAC Record: 7.4-10.6
Projected Final Rank in the AAC: 8

SMU Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 88
RPI Rank: 97
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-5 3-4 1-3 9-0
Win % by Tier 0.286 0.429 0.250 1.000

Our current projections give the SMU Mustangs a 6.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 8.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 85.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account SMU’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 3.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.4%
NIT #5 Seed 5.2%
NIT #6 Seed 3.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the SMU Mustangs. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

SMU Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 184 UMBC Home W 78-67
11/12 215 ULM Home W 83-65
11/15 346 Northwestern LA Home W 81-35
11/18 331 Ark Pine Bluff Home W 72-37
11/22 144 Northern Iowa Nassau, Bahamas L 58-61
11/23 18 Arizona Nassau, Bahamas W 66-60
11/24 70 WKU Nassau, Bahamas L 61-63
11/28 218 UTRGV Home W 95-64
12/2 51 USC Home W 72-55
12/5 21 TCU Away L 83-94
12/13 239 New Orleans Home W 79-66
12/18 59 Boise St Home W 86-63
12/19 297 Cal Poly Home W 84-64
12/27 68 UCF Home W 56-51
12/31 287 South Florida Home W 79-39
1/4 174 Tulane Away L 70-73
1/7 3 Cincinnati Away L 56-76
1/10 75 Temple Home L 64-66
1/17 17 Wichita St Away W 83-78
1/20 174 Tulane Home W 73-62
1/25 129 Connecticut Away L 52-63
1/28 256 East Carolina Home W 86-61
2/1 99 Tulsa Away L 67-76
2/8 22 Houston Away L 58-67
2/11 3 Cincinnati Home L 51-76
2/14 112 Memphis Home L 67-70
2/17 68 UCF Away L 37-52
2/21 256 East Carolina Away 80.9%
2/24 17 Wichita St Home 38.2%
2/28 22 Houston Home 42.9%
3/4 287 South Florida Away 82.1%