South Alabama Jaguars Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the South Alabama Jaguars. All of these projections for South Alabama are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

South Alabama Record and Rankings

Record: 9-8
Projected Final Record: 13.5-17.5

Sun Belt Conference Record: 2-2
Projected Final Sun Belt Record: 6.5-11.5
Projected Final Rank in the Sun Belt: 11

South Alabama Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 265
RPI Rank: 328
NET Rank: 295
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-2 0-2 7-3
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.700

Our current projections give the South Alabama Jaguars a 0.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 99.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account South Alabama’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.8%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the South Alabama Jaguars. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

South Alabama Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 16 Auburn Away L 58-101
11/11 No Rank Huntingdon Home W 106-76
11/16 261 Chattanooga Home W 73-54
11/17 292 Jacksonville Home L 48-71
11/19 317 SE Missouri St Home W 79-58
11/23 98 Texas A&M Away L 62-74
11/28 159 Southern Miss Away L 67-71
12/1 316 Florida A&M Home W 66-57
12/5 208 New Orleans Away L 60-71
12/8 305 Tulane Home W 81-60
12/19 342 Alabama A&M Home W 79-67
12/20 No Rank Mobile Home W 86-47
12/29 228 Richmond Home L 82-91
1/3 291 Appalachian St Home W 79-73
1/5 229 Coastal Car Home W 84-77
1/10 211 Arkansas St Away L 65-66
1/12 248 Ark Little Rock Away L 62-91
1/17 71 Georgia St Home 20.3%
1/19 131 Ga Southern Home 32.8%
1/24 155 Louisiana Away 17%
1/26 162 ULM Away 17.4%
2/2 183 Troy Home 43.3%
2/7 211 Arkansas St Home 52.6%
2/9 248 Ark Little Rock Home 56.3%
2/13 131 Ga Southern Away 15%
2/16 71 Georgia St Away 8.6%
2/23 183 Troy Away 24.7%
2/28 233 UT Arlington Home 55.9%
3/2 96 Texas St Home 32.8%
3/7 229 Coastal Car Away 32.8%
3/9 291 Appalachian St Away 42.7%