South Florida Bulls Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the South Florida Bulls. All of these projections for South Florida are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

South Florida Record and Rankings

Record: 12-5
Projected Final Record: 17.7-12.3

AAC Conference Record: 2-3
Projected Final AAC Record: 7.7-10.3
Projected Final Rank in the AAC: 9

South Florida Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 130
RPI Rank: 151
NET Rank: 98
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 1-1 4-2 7-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.500 0.667 1.000

Our current projections give the South Florida Bulls a 2.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 6.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 91.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account South Florida’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.4%
NIT #2 Seed 0.4%
NIT #3 Seed 1.4%
NIT #4 Seed 1.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.8%
NIT #6 Seed 1.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.8%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the South Florida Bulls. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

South Florida Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 342 Alabama A&M Home W 80-63
11/12 127 Austin Peay Home W 74-70
11/16 147 Ohio Neutal W 73-46
11/18 85 Georgetown Neutral L 73-76
11/21 316 Florida A&M Home W 69-59
11/24 203 Citadel Home L 81-84
11/28 347 Stetson Home W 75-71
11/30 178 Colgate Home W 73-63
12/15 291 Appalachian St Home W 76-69
12/18 202 Florida Intl Away W 82-73
12/21 351 Alcorn St Home W 83-44
12/29 255 F Dickinson Home W 60-54
1/2 94 Connecticut Home W 76-68
1/5 99 Tulsa Away L 75-78
1/9 305 Tulane Home W 66-48
1/12 40 Temple Away L 80-82
1/15 35 Cincinnati Away L 74-82
1/19 13 Houston Home 24.3%
1/22 97 Wichita St Home 55.9%
1/26 216 East Carolina Away 60.8%
2/2 89 Memphis Home 51.1%
2/7 104 SMU Away 30.9%
2/10 216 East Carolina Home 84.2%
2/13 48 UCF Away 15.8%
2/16 40 Temple Home 40.5%
2/23 13 Houston Away 8.2%
2/27 48 UCF Home 40.9%
3/3 94 Connecticut Away 29.7%
3/6 305 Tulane Away 68.3%
3/10 104 SMU Home 55.5%