South Florida Bulls Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the South Florida Bulls. All of these projections for South Florida are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/14/2019.

South Florida Record and Rankings

Record: 17-7
Projected Final Record: 19.8-10.2

AAC Conference Record: 7-5
Projected Final AAC Record: 9.8-8.2
Projected Final Rank in the AAC: 6

South Florida Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 94
RPI Rank: 93
NET Rank: 73
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-5 1-1 7-0 9-1
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.500 1.000 0.900

Our current projections give the South Florida Bulls a 1.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 32.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 66.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account South Florida’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.8%
NIT #2 Seed 1.0%
NIT #3 Seed 2.0%
NIT #4 Seed 4.0%
NIT #5 Seed 8.6%
NIT #6 Seed 11.6%
NIT #7 Seed 4.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the South Florida Bulls. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

South Florida Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 339 Alabama A&M Home W 80-63
11/12 122 Austin Peay Home W 74-70
11/16 187 Ohio Neutal W 73-46
11/18 70 Georgetown Neutral L 73-76
11/21 319 Florida A&M Home W 69-59
11/24 204 Citadel Home L 81-84
11/28 340 Stetson Home W 75-71
11/30 159 Colgate Home W 73-63
12/15 233 Appalachian St Home W 76-69
12/18 198 Florida Intl Away W 82-73
12/21 343 Alcorn St Home W 83-44
12/29 227 F Dickinson Home W 60-54
1/2 96 Connecticut Home W 76-68
1/5 88 Tulsa Away L 75-78
1/9 300 Tulane Home W 66-48
1/12 53 Temple Away L 80-82
1/15 26 Cincinnati Away L 74-82
1/19 8 Houston Home L 60-69
1/22 101 Wichita St Home W 54-41
1/26 243 East Carolina Away W 77-57
2/2 75 Memphis Home W 84-78
2/7 126 SMU Away W 67-66
2/10 243 East Carolina Home W 72-68
2/13 46 UCF Away L 65-78
2/16 53 Temple Home 48.2%
2/23 8 Houston Away 7.8%
2/27 46 UCF Home 44.3%
3/3 96 Connecticut Away 35.9%
3/6 300 Tulane Away 76.7%
3/10 126 SMU Home 64.5%