Southern Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Southern Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Southern are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 3/11/2018.

Southern Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 UNC Greensboro 27 7 27 7 18 3 18 3
2 ETSU 25 9 25 9 16 5 16 5
3 Furman 23 10 23 10 14 6 14 6
4 Mercer 18 14 18 14 11 8 11 8
5 Wofford 21 12 21 12 12 8 12 8
6 W Carolina 12 19 12 19 8 11 8 11
7 Samford 10 22 10 22 6 13 6 13
8 Citadel 11 21 11 21 6 14 6 14
9 VMI 9 21 9 21 4 15 4 15
10 Chattanooga 10 23 10 23 4 16 4 16

Projected Southern Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Southern Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
UNC Greensboro 13 2.806

Southern Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Southern Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each Southern team. The Southern Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament is played in the first week of March and features ten teams on a neutral court.

Regular Season Champion: UNC Greensboro
Tournament Site: U.S. Cellular Center (Asheville, NC)
First Round: March 2nd, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 3rd, 2018
Semifinals: March 4th, 2018
Finals: March 5th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
UNC Greensboro
100%
100%
100%
100%
2
ETSU
100%
100%
100%
0%
3
Furman
100%
100%
0%
0%
4
Mercer
100%
0%
0%
0%
5
Wofford
100%
100%
0%
0%
6
W Carolina
100%
0%
0%
0%
7
Samford
0%
0%
0%
0%
8
Citadel
100%
0%
0%
0%
9
VMI
0%
0%
0%
0%
10
Chattanooga
100%
0%
0%
0%

Southern Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC