Southern Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Southern Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Southern are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

Southern Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Wofford 23 4 25.2 4.8 15 0 17.2 0.8
2 UNC Greensboro 22 5 25 6 11 3 14 4
3 ETSU 21 7 23.2 7.8 11 4 13.2 4.8
4 Furman 22 5 23.9 6.1 11 4 12.9 5.1
5 Samford 16 11 17.8 13.2 6 8 7.8 10.2
6 Chattanooga 11 16 11.9 19.1 6 8 6.9 11.1
7 Mercer 9 17 11.2 18.8 4 10 6.2 11.8
8 W Carolina 7 21 7.9 23.1 4 11 4.9 13.1
9 Citadel 11 14 12.8 16.2 3 11 4.8 13.2
10 VMI 7 19 8.2 21.8 1 13 2.2 15.8

Projected Southern Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Southern Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Wofford 10 5.943
Furman Last 4 Out 4.078
UNC Greensboro Next 4 Out 3.582

Projected Southern Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Southern Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Wofford 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%
UNC Greensboro 0% 64% 23% 13% 100%
ETSU 0% 23% 44% 33% 100%
Furman 0% 13% 33% 54% 100%
Samford 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Chattanooga 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Mercer 0% 0% 0% 0% 91%
W Carolina 0% 0% 0% 0% 55%
Citadel 0% 0% 0% 0% 53%
VMI 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%

Southern Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Southern Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Southern Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament is played in the first week of March and features ten teams on a neutral court.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: U.S. Cellular Center (Asheville, NC)
First Round: March 8th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 9th, 2019
Semifinals: March 10th, 2019
Finals: March 11th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Wofford
100%
91.8%
62.8%
44.7%
2
UNC Greensboro
100%
75.7%
36.2%
13.3%
3
ETSU
100%
77%
39.2%
16.4%
4
Furman
100%
78.9%
43.7%
21.8%
5
Samford
99.3%
33.7%
9.1%
2.4%
6
Chattanooga
88.5%
12.5%
2%
0.1%
7
Mercer
82.6%
17.9%
4.8%
1%
8
W Carolina
50.7%
4.1%
0.7%
0.2%
9
Citadel
49.7%
5%
1.2%
0.1%
10
VMI
29.2%
3.4%
0.3%
0%

Southern Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 Samford 54.4% Mercer 45.6% Samford wins by 2
2/21 Chattanooga 35.9% Citadel 64.1% Citadel wins by 5
2/21 W Carolina 7.4% UNC Greensboro 92.6% UNC Greensboro wins by 15
2/21 ETSU 89.2% VMI 10.8% ETSU wins by 13
2/23 Samford 60.1% Citadel 39.9% Samford wins by 4
2/23 Wofford 56.5% Furman 43.5% Wofford wins by 2
2/23 Chattanooga 24.3% Mercer 75.7% Mercer wins by 8
2/23 VMI 27.2% W Carolina 72.8% W Carolina wins by 7
2/24 ETSU 39.5% UNC Greensboro 60.5% UNC Greensboro wins by 4
2/28 Furman 63.4% Samford 36.6% Furman wins by 5
2/28 UNC Greensboro 79.2% Citadel 20.8% UNC Greensboro wins by 8
2/28 Wofford 92% Chattanooga 8% Wofford wins by 14
2/28 Mercer 64.1% VMI 35.9% Mercer wins by 5
3/2 Wofford 75.7% Samford 24.3% Wofford wins by 8
3/2 UNC Greensboro 69.1% Mercer 30.9% UNC Greensboro wins by 6
3/2 Furman 82.8% Chattanooga 17.2% Furman wins by 10
3/2 Citadel 58.5% VMI 41.5% Citadel wins by 3
3/2 W Carolina 7.8% ETSU 92.2% ETSU wins by 15

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC