Southern Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Southern Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Southern are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/10/2018.

Southern Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Furman 10 0 25.7 4.3 1 0 14.3 3.7
2 Wofford 8 3 21.2 8.8 1 0 13 5
3 UNC Greensboro 8 2 22.6 8.4 0 0 11.9 6.1
4 ETSU 8 3 20.3 9.7 0 1 11 7
5 Samford 8 2 20.6 10.4 0 0 10.7 7.3
6 Citadel 7 2 18.9 10.1 1 0 10.4 7.6
7 Mercer 4 6 12.4 17.6 0 1 7.3 10.7
8 W Carolina 3 8 8.3 22.7 0 1 4.7 13.3
9 Chattanooga 5 5 9.4 21.6 1 0 4 14
10 VMI 5 6 8.7 21.3 0 1 2.6 15.4

Projected Southern Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Southern Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Wofford 13 3.888

Projected Southern Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Southern Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Furman 58% 17% 12% 9% 100%
Wofford 26% 31% 18% 14% 100%
UNC Greensboro 5% 24% 22% 16% 100%
ETSU 4% 15% 14% 14% 100%
Samford 4% 8% 21% 22% 100%
Citadel 2% 4% 12% 22% 100%
Mercer 1% 1% 1% 3% 91%
W Carolina 0% 0% 0% 0% 56%
Chattanooga 0% 0% 0% 0% 45%
VMI 0% 0% 0% 0% 8%

Southern Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Southern Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Southern Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament is played in the first week of March and features ten teams on a neutral court.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: U.S. Cellular Center (Asheville, NC)
First Round: March 8th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 9th, 2019
Semifinals: March 10th, 2019
Finals: March 11th, 2019

Coming Soon!

Southern Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
12/22 UNC Greensboro 50.4% Samford 49.6% UNC Greensboro wins by 1
12/29 Chattanooga 4.3% UNC Greensboro 95.7% UNC Greensboro wins by 18
12/29 VMI 4.3% Samford 95.7% Samford wins by 18
12/29 Wofford 85% W Carolina 15% Wofford wins by 11
12/29 Furman 60.8% ETSU 39.2% Furman wins by 4
1/3 Citadel 21.8% Wofford 78.2% Wofford wins by 8
1/3 Mercer 8% Furman 92% Furman wins by 14
1/3 Chattanooga 30.9% W Carolina 69.1% W Carolina wins by 6
1/3 Samford 37.6% ETSU 62.5% ETSU wins by 4
1/5 Citadel 16% Furman 84% Furman wins by 10
1/5 Mercer 13.2% Wofford 86.8% Wofford wins by 12
1/5 Samford 79.2% W Carolina 20.8% Samford wins by 8
1/5 UNC Greensboro 92% VMI 8% UNC Greensboro wins by 14
1/5 Chattanooga 7% ETSU 93% ETSU wins by 16
1/10 Wofford 46.3% UNC Greensboro 53.7% UNC Greensboro wins by 1
1/10 Furman 93.4% VMI 6.6% Furman wins by 16
1/10 W Carolina 18.4% Mercer 81.6% Mercer wins by 9
1/10 ETSU 50% Citadel 50% ETSU wins by 1

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC