Southern Utah Thunderbirds Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Southern Utah Thunderbirds. All of these projections for Southern Utah are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Southern Utah Record and Rankings

Record: 7-7
Projected Final Record: 14.9-14.1

Big Sky Conference Record: 2-3
Projected Final Big Sky Record: 9.9-10.1
Projected Final Rank in the Big Sky: 6

Southern Utah Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 241
RPI Rank: 208
NET Rank: 264
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 0-1 2-5 3-1
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.286 0.750

Our current projections give the Southern Utah Thunderbirds a 2.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 97.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Southern Utah’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 2.6%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Southern Utah Thunderbirds. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Southern Utah Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank W Coast Bap Home W 109-63
11/10 326 San Jose St Away W 66-59
11/18 157 Seattle Away W 73-70
11/23 165 UNLV Away L 71-76
11/29 No Rank San Diego Chr Home W 111-64
12/5 180 Long Beach St Away L 71-82
12/8 120 C Michigan Away L 86-95
12/15 182 Pepperdine Home W 78-69
12/21 126 USC Away L 49-91
12/29 250 Montana St Home L 62-92
12/31 142 Montana Home L 76-89
1/3 244 Idaho St Away L 68-88
1/5 177 Weber St Away W 90-82
1/12 287 Northern Arizona Home W 84-82
1/17 289 Portland St Home 71%
1/19 303 CS Sacramento Home 76.2%
1/24 200 N Colorado Away 24.3%
1/28 287 Northern Arizona Away 46.3%
2/2 297 E Washington Away 47.4%
2/4 335 Idaho Away 59.5%
2/7 177 Weber St Home 44.1%
2/9 244 Idaho St Home 61.5%
2/14 303 CS Sacramento Away 48.9%
2/16 289 Portland St Away 45.2%
2/21 297 E Washington Home 71.8%
2/23 335 Idaho Home 84.2%
3/2 142 Montana Away 14.6%
3/4 250 Montana St Away 39.2%
3/7 200 N Colorado Home 51.5%