Southland Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Southland Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Southland are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/10/2018.

Southland Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Abilene Chr 9 1 24.7 6.3 0 0 14 4
2 SF Austin 5 3 18.7 11.3 0 0 11.7 6.3
3 New Orleans 4 3 16 13 0 0 10.7 7.3
4 Nicholls St 5 4 17.4 12.6 0 0 10.7 7.3
5 Cent Arkansas 4 5 15.7 15.3 0 0 10.5 7.5
6 Lamar 4 5 16.8 14.2 0 0 10.1 7.9
7 Houston Bap 2 5 14 15 0 0 10 8
8 TAM C. Christi 4 5 14.9 16.1 0 0 9.2 8.8
9 SE Louisiana 4 4 14.6 16.4 0 0 8.6 9.4
10 Sam Houston St 3 7 12 19 0 0 7.2 10.8
11 McNeese St 2 6 10.1 19.9 0 0 6.3 11.7
12 Incarnate Word 5 6 10.6 20.4 0 0 5.5 12.5
13 Northwestern LA 2 7 5.9 25.1 0 0 2.5 15.5

Projected Southland Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Southland Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Abilene Chr 16 1.674

Projected Southland Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Southland Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Abilene Chr 62% 23% 9% 3% 100%
SF Austin 17% 17% 16% 13% 95%
New Orleans 3% 3% 12% 18% 87%
Nicholls St 7% 17% 13% 15% 87%
Cent Arkansas 5% 11% 11% 10% 80%
Lamar 2% 12% 12% 14% 87%
Houston Bap 2% 11% 12% 11% 82%
TAM C. Christi 1% 3% 9% 4% 69%
SE Louisiana 1% 2% 5% 8% 53%
Sam Houston St 0% 1% 1% 2% 37%
McNeese St 0% 0% 0% 2% 13%
Incarnate Word 0% 0% 0% 0% 10%
Northwestern LA 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Southland Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Southland Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Southland Conference has thirteen teams, but only the top eight make the tournament. The top two seeds get a bye into the Semifinals and the three and four seed get a bye into the Quarterfinals.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Leonard E Merrell Center (Katy, TX)
1st Round: March 13th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Coming Soon!

Southland Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
1/2 Cent Arkansas 50% TAM C. Christi 50% Cent Arkansas wins by 1
1/2 Lamar 42.7% Houston Bap 57.3% Houston Bap wins by 3
1/2 McNeese St 42.2% Incarnate Word 57.8% Incarnate Word wins by 3
1/2 New Orleans 16% Abilene Chr 84% Abilene Chr wins by 10
1/2 Nicholls St 88.1% Northwestern LA 11.9% Nicholls St wins by 12
1/2 SE Louisiana 19.6% SF Austin 80.4% SF Austin wins by 9
1/5 TAM C. Christi 37.9% Lamar 62.1% Lamar wins by 4
1/5 Houston Bap 39.2% New Orleans 60.8% New Orleans wins by 4
1/5 Abilene Chr 77.2% Sam Houston St 22.8% Abilene Chr wins by 8
1/5 McNeese St 67.2% Northwestern LA 32.8% McNeese St wins by 6
1/5 Cent Arkansas 54.8% SE Louisiana 45.2% Cent Arkansas wins by 2
1/5 Nicholls St 64.5% Incarnate Word 35.5% Nicholls St wins by 5
1/9 New Orleans 42.7% Lamar 57.3% Lamar wins by 3
1/9 Sam Houston St 21.3% Cent Arkansas 78.7% Cent Arkansas wins by 8
1/9 Abilene Chr 83% McNeese St 17% Abilene Chr wins by 10
1/9 TAM C. Christi 83% Northwestern LA 17% TAM C. Christi wins by 10
1/9 SF Austin 50% Nicholls St 50% SF Austin wins by 1
1/12 Lamar 37.9% Cent Arkansas 62.1% Cent Arkansas wins by 4

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC