Southland Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Southland Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Southland are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

Southland Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Sam Houston St 18 9 21 10 13 1 16 2
2 Abilene Chr 21 5 25 6 10 3 14 4
3 New Orleans 15 10 17.1 11.9 10 4 12.1 5.9
4 SE Louisiana 13 14 15.1 15.9 9 5 11.1 6.9
5 Lamar 15 12 17.7 13.3 8 6 10.7 7.3
6 TAM C. Christi 11 15 13.8 17.2 6 7 8.8 9.2
7 Houston Bap 10 14 12.5 16.5 6 7 8.5 9.5
8 SF Austin 13 12 15 15 6 7 8 10
9 Cent Arkansas 10 16 11.9 19.1 5 8 6.9 11.1
10 Northwestern LA 10 17 11.9 19.1 5 9 6.9 11.1
11 Nicholls St 10 15 12.6 17.4 4 9 6.6 11.4
12 McNeese St 7 18 8.6 21.4 4 9 5.6 12.4
13 Incarnate Word 6 20 6.9 24.1 1 12 1.9 16.1

Projected Southland Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Southland Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Abilene Chr 15 0.411

Projected Southland Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Southland Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Sam Houston St 91% 9% 0% 0% 100%
Abilene Chr 8% 82% 9% 1% 100%
New Orleans 1% 7% 61% 20% 100%
SE Louisiana 0% 2% 23% 33% 100%
Lamar 0% 0% 7% 39% 100%
TAM C. Christi 0% 0% 0% 4% 88%
Houston Bap 0% 0% 0% 2% 81%
SF Austin 0% 0% 0% 1% 70%
Cent Arkansas 0% 0% 0% 0% 23%
Northwestern LA 0% 0% 0% 0% 15%
Nicholls St 0% 0% 0% 0% 21%
McNeese St 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%
Incarnate Word 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Southland Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Southland Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Southland Conference has thirteen teams, but only the top eight make the tournament. The top two seeds get a bye into the Semifinals and the three and four seed get a bye into the Quarterfinals.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Leonard E Merrell Center (Katy, TX)
1st Round: March 13th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Sam Houston St
100%
100%
72.6%
38.4%
2
Abilene Chr
100%
98.8%
68.6%
39.9%
3
New Orleans
100%
59%
19%
8.1%
4
SE Louisiana
85.8%
40.8%
10.8%
3.3%
5
Lamar
76.9%
42%
13.8%
4.8%
6
TAM C. Christi
48.6%
24.8%
7.3%
2.9%
7
Houston Bap
39.1%
16.8%
4.6%
1.7%
8
SF Austin
28.9%
10.4%
2.1%
0.7%
9
Cent Arkansas
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
0.2%
10
Northwestern LA
8.3%
2.5%
0.5%
0%
11
Nicholls St
10.6%
4%
0.4%
0%
12
McNeese St
0%
0%
0%
0%
13
Incarnate Word
0%
0%
0%
0%

Southland Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/23 Lamar 44.5% TAM C. Christi 55.5% TAM C. Christi wins by 2
2/23 New Orleans 62.8% McNeese St 37.2% New Orleans wins by 5
2/23 Houston Bap 15.8% Sam Houston St 84.2% Sam Houston St wins by 11
2/23 Incarnate Word 15.8% SF Austin 84.2% SF Austin wins by 11
2/23 SE Louisiana 16.5% Abilene Chr 83.5% Abilene Chr wins by 10
2/23 Cent Arkansas 44.1% Nicholls St 55.9% Nicholls St wins by 2
2/27 Houston Bap 34% Lamar 66% Lamar wins by 5
2/27 Sam Houston St 58.8% New Orleans 41.2% Sam Houston St wins by 3
2/27 Abilene Chr 62.8% TAM C. Christi 37.2% Abilene Chr wins by 5
2/27 SF Austin 44.1% Cent Arkansas 55.9% Cent Arkansas wins by 2
2/27 McNeese St 39.2% Nicholls St 60.8% Nicholls St wins by 4
2/27 Incarnate Word 22.8% Northwestern LA 77.2% Northwestern LA wins by 8
3/2 McNeese St 20.8% Houston Bap 79.2% Houston Bap wins by 8
3/2 TAM C. Christi 68.3% Incarnate Word 31.7% TAM C. Christi wins by 6
3/2 Abilene Chr 71.2% Cent Arkansas 28.8% Abilene Chr wins by 7
3/2 SF Austin 26.7% Lamar 73.3% Lamar wins by 7
3/2 New Orleans 60.8% Nicholls St 39.2% New Orleans wins by 4
3/2 Northwestern LA 19.6% SE Louisiana 80.4% SE Louisiana wins by 9

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC