Southland Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Southland Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Southland are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2018.

Southland Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Nicholls St 18 9 20.7 10.3 12 2 14.7 3.3
2 SF Austin 22 5 25.1 5.9 11 3 14.1 3.9
3 SE Louisiana 18 10 19.9 11.1 12 3 13.9 4.1
4 Sam Houston St 17 11 18.4 12.6 11 4 12.4 5.6
5 New Orleans 14 12 15.1 13.9 11 4 12.1 5.9
6 Lamar 17 11 18.4 12.6 9 6 10.4 7.6
7 Cent Arkansas 13 14 15.3 15.7 7 7 9.3 8.7
8 Abilene Chr 15 12 17 14 7 7 9 9
9 McNeese St 9 15 11 17 6 8 8 10
10 TAM C. Christi 8 16 10.3 17.7 5 9 7.3 10.7
11 Houston Bap 6 21 7.5 23.5 2 12 3.5 14.5
12 Incarnate Word 5 19 6.4 21.6 0 14 1.4 16.6
13 Northwestern LA 3 22 3.8 25.2 0 14 0.8 17.2

Projected Southland Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Southland Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
SF Austin 16 0.769

Southland Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Southland Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each Southland team. The Southland Conference has thirteen teams, but only the top eight make the tournament. The top two seeds get a bye into the Semifinals and the three and four seed get a bye into the Quarterfinals.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Leonard E Merrell Center (Katy, TX)
1st Round: March 7th, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 8th, 2018
Semifinals: March 9th, 2018
Finals: March 10th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Nicholls St
100%
60.8%
26.7%
2
SF Austin
100%
68.3%
44.3%
3
SE Louisiana
51.9%
17%
8.2%
4
Sam Houston St
55.4%
23.7%
8.6%
5
New Orleans
25.5%
10.2%
3.4%
6
Lamar
23.9%
7.3%
3.7%
7
Cent Arkansas
24.2%
7.4%
3.2%
8
Abilene Chr
19.1%
5.3%
1.9%

Southland Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 TAM C. Christi 30.9% Abilene Chr 69.1% Abilene Chr wins by 6
2/21 Lamar 68% Houston Bap 32.1% Lamar wins by 6
2/21 Nicholls St 62.8% McNeese St 37.2% Nicholls St wins by 5
2/21 New Orleans 35.5% Sam Houston St 64.5% Sam Houston St wins by 5
2/21 Cent Arkansas 20.3% SF Austin 79.7% SF Austin wins by 9
2/21 Northwestern LA 41.2% Incarnate Word 58.8% Incarnate Word wins by 3
2/24 Cent Arkansas 55.1% Abilene Chr 44.9% Cent Arkansas wins by 2
2/24 Houston Bap 21.3% McNeese St 78.7% McNeese St wins by 8
2/24 New Orleans 25.2% Nicholls St 74.8% Nicholls St wins by 8
2/24 SE Louisiana 83% Northwestern LA 17% SE Louisiana wins by 10
2/24 Lamar 18.4% SF Austin 81.6% SF Austin wins by 9
2/24 Incarnate Word 14.8% TAM C. Christi 85.2% TAM C. Christi wins by 11
2/28 SE Louisiana 50.4% New Orleans 49.6% SE Louisiana wins by 1
2/28 Nicholls St 84.5% Northwestern LA 15.5% Nicholls St wins by 11
2/28 Abilene Chr 14.8% SF Austin 85.2% SF Austin wins by 11
2/28 McNeese St 43.1% TAM C. Christi 56.9% TAM C. Christi wins by 3
2/28 Sam Houston St 39.2% Cent Arkansas 60.8% Cent Arkansas wins by 4
2/28 Houston Bap 57.1% Incarnate Word 42.9% Houston Bap wins by 3

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC