Southwestern Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Southwestern Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Southwestern are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/17/2018.

Southwestern Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 TX Southern 4 6 21 10 0 0 15.5 2.5
2 Grambling 5 6 18.8 12.2 0 0 13 5
3 Ark Pine Bluff 3 7 15.8 15.2 0 0 12.2 5.8
4 Prairie View 1 9 13.7 17.3 0 0 11.5 6.5
5 Jackson St 2 9 10.9 20.1 0 0 8.1 9.9
6 Alabama St 2 6 10.2 17.8 0 0 7.9 10.1
7 Southern Univ 1 10 7.6 23.4 0 0 6.4 11.6
8 MS Valley St 2 11 8.1 23.9 0 0 6.1 11.9
9 Alcorn St 3 6 9.1 20.9 0 0 5.5 12.5
10 Alabama A&M 0 9 4.1 27.9 0 0 3.8 14.2

Projected Southwestern Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Southwestern Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
TX Southern 16 -2.433

Projected Southwestern Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Southwestern Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
TX Southern 83% 12% 5% 0% 100%
Grambling 10% 47% 22% 15% 100%
Ark Pine Bluff 6% 26% 34% 22% 100%
Prairie View 0% 12% 27% 35% 100%
Jackson St 1% 2% 6% 12% 94%
Alabama St 0% 1% 4% 12% 87%
Southern Univ 0% 0% 1% 2% 65%
MS Valley St 0% 0% 1% 2% 75%
Alcorn St 0% 0% 0% 0% 55%
Alabama A&M 0% 0% 0% 0% 24%

Southwestern Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Southwestern Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Though there are ten teams in the conference, only eight will play in the SWAC Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Campus Sites (1st Round), Bill Harris Arena (Birmingham, AL)
Quarterfinals: March 12th, 2018
Semifinals: March 15th, 2018
Finals: March 16th, 2018

Coming Soon!

Southwestern Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
1/5 Grambling 74.8% Alabama St 25.2% Grambling wins by 8
1/5 TX Southern 92.9% Alcorn St 7.1% TX Southern wins by 16
1/5 Prairie View 71.2% Southern Univ 28.8% Prairie View wins by 7
1/5 MS Valley St 8.9% Ark Pine Bluff 91.1% Ark Pine Bluff wins by 13
1/5 Jackson St 68% Alabama A&M 32.1% Jackson St wins by 6
1/7 Grambling 92% Alabama A&M 8% Grambling wins by 14
1/7 TX Southern 92.2% Southern Univ 7.8% TX Southern wins by 15
1/7 Prairie View 78.2% Alcorn St 21.8% Prairie View wins by 8
1/7 Jackson St 43.5% Alabama St 56.5% Alabama St wins by 2
1/12 Alabama St 16.2% Ark Pine Bluff 83.8% Ark Pine Bluff wins by 10
1/12 Southern Univ 8.2% Grambling 91.8% Grambling wins by 14
1/12 TX Southern 69.9% Prairie View 30.1% TX Southern wins by 6
1/12 Alabama A&M 24.3% MS Valley St 75.7% MS Valley St wins by 8
1/12 Alcorn St 24.3% Jackson St 75.7% Jackson St wins by 8
1/14 Alabama A&M 7% Ark Pine Bluff 93% Ark Pine Bluff wins by 16
1/14 Alcorn St 7.8% Grambling 92.2% Grambling wins by 15
1/14 Alabama St 55.9% MS Valley St 44.1% Alabama St wins by 2
1/14 Southern Univ 32.1% Jackson St 68% Jackson St wins by 6

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC