Southwestern Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Southwestern Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Southwestern are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

Southwestern Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Prairie View 13 12 18 13 11 1 16 2
2 TX Southern 14 11 19.1 11.9 9 3 14.1 3.9
3 Alabama St 10 13 12.9 16.1 8 4 10.9 7.1
4 Grambling 13 13 16.3 14.7 7 6 10.3 7.7
5 Ark Pine Bluff 11 15 13.2 17.8 8 5 10.2 7.8
6 Jackson St 9 17 11.5 19.5 6 7 8.5 9.5
7 Alabama A&M 5 21 6.9 25.1 4 8 5.9 12.1
8 Alcorn St 8 17 9.4 20.6 4 9 5.4 12.6
9 Southern Univ 4 22 5.6 25.4 3 10 4.6 13.4
10 MS Valley St 5 22 6.1 25.9 3 10 4.1 13.9

Projected Southwestern Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Southwestern Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
TX Southern 16 -2.511

Projected Southwestern Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Southwestern Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Prairie View 90% 10% 0% 0% 100%
TX Southern 10% 88% 2% 0% 100%
Alabama St 0% 1% 43% 32% 100%
Grambling 0% 0% 28% 29% 100%
Ark Pine Bluff 0% 1% 25% 32% 100%
Jackson St 0% 0% 2% 7% 100%
Alabama A&M 0% 0% 0% 0% 81%
Alcorn St 0% 0% 0% 0% 81%
Southern Univ 0% 0% 0% 0% 27%
MS Valley St 0% 0% 0% 0% 11%

Southwestern Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Southwestern Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Though there are ten teams in the conference, only eight will play in the SWAC Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament. Alabama A&M is ineligible due to APR issues.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Campus Sites (1st Round), Bill Harris Arena (Birmingham, AL)
Quarterfinals: March 12th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Semis Finals To Win
1
Prairie View
89.6%
57.6%
28.6%
2
TX Southern
90.7%
66.8%
44.1%
3
Alabama St
50.8%
17.4%
5.8%
4
Grambling
60.1%
26%
10.7%
5
Ark Pine Bluff
52.7%
17.9%
6.9%
6
Jackson St
35.5%
9.8%
3%
7
Alabama A&M
0%
0%
0%
8
Alcorn St
10.4%
2%
0.6%
9
Southern Univ
5.5%
1.1%
0.1%
10
MS Valley St
4.7%
1.4%
0.2%

Southwestern Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/23 Alabama St 65.3% Alcorn St 34.7% Alabama St wins by 5
2/23 Ark Pine Bluff 17.2% TX Southern 82.8% TX Southern wins by 10
2/23 Alabama A&M 47.4% Southern Univ 52.6% Southern Univ wins by 1
2/23 MS Valley St 7.8% Prairie View 92.2% Prairie View wins by 15
2/23 Grambling 58.5% Jackson St 41.5% Grambling wins by 3
2/25 Alabama A&M 50% Alcorn St 50% Alabama A&M wins by 1
2/25 Alabama St 64.1% Southern Univ 35.9% Alabama St wins by 5
2/25 Ark Pine Bluff 19.6% Prairie View 80.4% Prairie View wins by 9
2/25 MS Valley St 7% TX Southern 93% TX Southern wins by 16
3/2 TX Southern 66.4% Alabama St 33.6% TX Southern wins by 6
3/2 Grambling 50% Ark Pine Bluff 50% Grambling wins by 1
3/2 Alcorn St 42.2% Southern Univ 57.8% Southern Univ wins by 3
3/2 Prairie View 77.2% Alabama A&M 22.8% Prairie View wins by 8
3/2 Jackson St 61.8% MS Valley St 38.2% Jackson St wins by 4
3/4 TX Southern 81.4% Alabama A&M 18.6% TX Southern wins by 9
3/4 Prairie View 62.5% Alabama St 37.6% Prairie View wins by 4
3/4 Grambling 73.4% MS Valley St 26.6% Grambling wins by 7
3/4 Jackson St 33.2% Ark Pine Bluff 66.8% Ark Pine Bluff wins by 6

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC