Southwestern Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Southwestern Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Southwestern are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/19/2018.

Southwestern Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Grambling 15 12 18.1 12.9 11 3 14.1 3.9
2 Prairie View 11 16 14.7 17.3 8 5 11.7 6.3
3 TX Southern 8 18 11.5 19.5 8 5 11.5 6.5
4 Southern Univ 13 14 15.1 15.9 9 5 11.1 6.9
5 Ark Pine Bluff 9 19 10.9 21.1 9 5 10.9 7.1
6 Jackson St 10 17 12.5 18.5 7 7 9.5 8.5
7 Alabama St 6 19 7.8 22.2 6 7 7.8 10.2
8 Alcorn St 10 17 11.6 19.4 6 8 7.6 10.4
9 Alabama A&M 2 24 3 28 2 11 3 15
10 MS Valley St 2 25 2.7 28.3 2 12 2.7 15.3

Projected Southwestern Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Southwestern Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Prairie View 16 -6.429

Southwestern Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Southwestern Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each Southwestern team. Though there are ten teams in the conference, only eight will play in the SWAC Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament. Grambling and Alabama A&M are ineligible for participation in 2018 due to APR issues.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Campus Sites (1st Round), Delmar Center (Houston, TX)
Quarterfinals: March 6th, 2018
Semifinals: March 9th, 2018
Finals: March 10th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Semis Finals To Win
2
Prairie View
89%
60.7%
37%
3
TX Southern
79%
50.6%
30.1%
4
Southern Univ
69.8%
31%
12.2%
5
Ark Pine Bluff
54.9%
19.2%
8.8%
6
Jackson St
45.1%
16.3%
5.7%
7
Alabama St
30.2%
9.4%
3.2%
8
Alcorn St
21%
9%
2.7%
10
MS Valley St
11%
3.8%
0.3%

Southwestern Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/19 Alcorn St 45.2% Alabama St 54.8% Alabama St wins by 2
2/19 TX Southern 60.8% Ark Pine Bluff 39.2% TX Southern wins by 4
2/19 Prairie View 80.2% MS Valley St 19.8% Prairie View wins by 9
2/19 Southern Univ 69.1% Alabama A&M 30.9% Southern Univ wins by 6
2/24 Alabama A&M 8.6% TX Southern 91.4% TX Southern wins by 13
2/24 Southern Univ 55.9% Alcorn St 44.1% Southern Univ wins by 2
2/24 Ark Pine Bluff 25.2% Grambling 74.8% Grambling wins by 8
2/24 MS Valley St 19.4% Jackson St 80.6% Jackson St wins by 9
2/24 Alabama St 17.7% Prairie View 82.3% Prairie View wins by 10
2/26 Alabama St 17.9% TX Southern 82.1% TX Southern wins by 10
2/26 MS Valley St 11.1% Grambling 88.9% Grambling wins by 12
2/26 Ark Pine Bluff 43.7% Jackson St 56.3% Jackson St wins by 2
2/26 Alabama A&M 8.3% Prairie View 91.7% Prairie View wins by 13
3/1 Grambling 79.4% Alabama A&M 20.6% Grambling wins by 9
3/1 Prairie View 64.1% Alcorn St 35.9% Prairie View wins by 5
3/1 MS Valley St 18.9% Ark Pine Bluff 81.1% Ark Pine Bluff wins by 9
3/1 Jackson St 50% Alabama St 50% Jackson St wins by 1
3/1 TX Southern 55.9% Southern Univ 44.1% TX Southern wins by 2

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC