St. Bonaventure Bonnies Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the St. Bonaventure Bonnies. All of these projections for St Bonaventure are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

St Bonaventure Record and Rankings

Record: 26-8
Projected Final Record: 26.0-8.0

Atlantic 10 Conference Record: 15-5
Projected Final Atlantic 10 Record: 15.0-5.0
Projected Final Rank in the Atlantic 10: 2

St Bonaventure Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 61
RPI Rank: 24
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 10 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 3-3 6-1 6-2 10-1
Win % by Tier 0.500 0.857 0.750 0.909

Our current projections give the St. Bonaventure Bonnies a 51.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 31.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 17.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account St Bonaventure’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 5.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 38.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 7.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.4%
NIT #2 Seed 2.2%
NIT #3 Seed 7.8%
NIT #4 Seed 11.4%
NIT #5 Seed 8.6%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the St. Bonaventure Bonnies. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

St Bonaventure Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 189 Niagara Home L 75-77
11/18 334 Jackson St Home W 72-58
11/20 349 MD E Shore Home W 96-48
11/24 57 Maryland Niceville, FL W 63-61
11/25 22 TCU Niceville, FL L 79-89
11/29 312 Siena Away W 75-55
12/2 69 Buffalo Away W 73-62
12/6 139 Canisius Away W 73-65
12/9 199 Yale Home W 75-67
12/16 84 Vermont Rochester, NY W 81-79
12/20 97 Northeastern Home W 84-65
12/22 54 Syracuse Away W 60-57
12/30 200 Massachusetts Home W 98-78
1/3 158 Dayton Away L 72-82
1/6 120 St Joseph’s PA Away L 78-85
1/10 270 Fordham Home W 77-61
1/13 44 Rhode Island Away L 73-87
1/19 67 Davidson Away L 73-83
1/24 120 St Joseph’s PA Home W 70-67
1/28 175 G Washington Home W 70-52
1/31 187 George Mason Away W 85-69
2/3 204 Duquesne Away W 84-81
2/7 138 St Louis Home W 79-56
2/10 165 Richmond Home W 97-88
2/13 168 La Salle Away W 79-68
2/16 44 Rhode Island Home W 77-74
2/21 204 Duquesne Home W 73-67
2/24 133 VA Commonwealth Away W 68-63
2/27 67 Davidson Home W 117-113
3/3 138 St Louis Away W 64-56
3/9 165 Richmond Washington, DC W 83-77
3/10 67 Davidson Washington, DC L 70-82
3/13 41 UCLA NCAA Tournament Dayton OH W 65-58
3/15 23 Florida NCAA Tournament Dallas, TX L 62-77