St. Francis Red Flash Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the St. Francis Red Flash. All of these projections for St Francis PA are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

St Francis PA Record and Rankings

Record: 7-9
Projected Final Record: 14.3-14.7

NEC Conference Record: 3-2
Projected Final NEC Record: 10.3-7.7
Projected Final Rank in the NEC: 3

St Francis PA Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 243
RPI Rank: 181
NET Rank: 287
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-3 0-2 2-2 3-2
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.500 0.600

Our current projections give the St. Francis Red Flash a 20.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 79.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account St Francis PA’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #16 Seed 19.8%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the St. Francis Red Flash. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

St Francis PA Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 9 Buffalo Away L 67-82
11/9 325 Morgan St Home W 80-60
11/16 96 UCLA Away L 58-95
11/19 10 North Carolina Away L 76-101
11/24 11 Virginia Tech Away L 37-75
11/27 No Rank Bloomsburg Home W 113-59
11/30 280 Niagara Home W 79-75
12/4 236 American Univ Away L 82-95
12/9 203 Delaware Away L 83-88
12/18 No Rank Franciscan OH Home W 96-63
12/22 146 Lehigh Away L 76-88
1/3 324 Mt St Mary’s Home W 80-69
1/5 268 F Dickinson Home L 61-79
1/10 253 LIU Brooklyn Away W 74-67
1/12 219 St Francis NY Away L 68-72
1/19 247 Central Conn Away W 80-69
1/21 317 Bryant Away 58.2%
1/24 245 Wagner Home 61.5%
1/26 248 Sacred Heart Home 61.5%
1/31 262 Robert Morris Away 42.5%
2/2 324 Mt St Mary’s Away 58.8%
2/7 247 Central Conn Home 61.5%
2/9 317 Bryant Home 82.1%
2/14 268 F Dickinson Away 41.2%
2/16 262 Robert Morris Home 63.8%
2/21 219 St Francis NY Home 58.8%
2/23 253 LIU Brooklyn Home 62.1%
2/28 245 Wagner Away 39.5%
3/2 248 Sacred Heart Away 39.2%