St. Francis Red Flash Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the St. Francis Red Flash. All of these projections for St Francis PA are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/14/2019.

St Francis PA Record and Rankings

Record: 12-11
Projected Final Record: 15.0-14.0

NEC Conference Record: 8-4
Projected Final NEC Record: 11.0-7.0
Projected Final Rank in the NEC: 2

St Francis PA Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 248
RPI Rank: 185
NET Rank: 273
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-3 0-2 1-3 9-3
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.250 0.750

Our current projections give the St. Francis Red Flash a 18.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 81.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account St Francis PA’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #16 Seed 18.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the St. Francis Red Flash. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

St Francis PA Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 25 Buffalo Away L 67-82
11/9 337 Morgan St Home W 80-60
11/16 108 UCLA Away L 58-95
11/19 7 North Carolina Away L 76-101
11/24 19 Virginia Tech Away L 37-75
11/27 No Rank Bloomsburg Home W 113-59
11/30 293 Niagara Home W 79-75
12/4 209 American Univ Away L 82-95
12/9 226 Delaware Away L 83-88
12/18 No Rank Franciscan OH Home W 96-63
12/22 147 Lehigh Away L 76-88
1/3 332 Mt St Mary’s Home W 80-69
1/5 227 F Dickinson Home L 61-79
1/10 289 LIU Brooklyn Away W 74-67
1/12 244 St Francis NY Away L 68-72
1/19 277 Central Conn Away W 80-69
1/21 312 Bryant Away L 67-76
1/24 274 Wagner Home L 79-83
1/26 261 Sacred Heart Home W 79-78
1/31 256 Robert Morris Away W 76-73
2/2 332 Mt St Mary’s Away W 72-63
2/7 277 Central Conn Home W 90-85
2/9 312 Bryant Home W 84-75
2/14 227 F Dickinson Away 34.4%
2/16 256 Robert Morris Home 61.5%
2/21 244 St Francis NY Home 59.8%
2/23 289 LIU Brooklyn Home 66%
2/28 274 Wagner Away 42.7%
3/2 261 Sacred Heart Away 38.5%