St. John’s Red Storm Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the St. John’s Red Storm. All of these projections for St John’s are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

St John’s Record and Rankings

Record: 15-4
Projected Final Record: 21.7-9.3

Big East Conference Record: 3-4
Projected Final Big East Record: 9.6-8.4
Projected Final Rank in the Big East: 3

St John’s Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 38
RPI Rank: 35
NET Rank: 34
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 10 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-3 2-0 4-1 7-0
Win % by Tier 0.400 1.000 0.800 1.000

Our current projections give the St. John’s Red Storm a 60.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 28.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 10.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account St John’s’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 4.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 7.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 10.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 16.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 11.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 9.6%
NIT #2 Seed 7.0%
NIT #3 Seed 5.4%
NIT #4 Seed 3.2%
NIT #5 Seed 1.8%
NIT #6 Seed 1.4%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the St. John’s Red Storm. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

St John’s Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 278 Loyola MD Home W 76-55
11/9 117 Bowling Green Home W 84-80
11/16 126 Rutgers Away W 84-65
11/19 255 California Neutal W 82-79
11/20 52 VA Commonwealth Neutal W 87-86
11/27 351 MD E Shore Home W 85-64
12/1 89 Georgia Tech Neutal W 76-73
12/5 324 Mt St Mary’s Home W 85-71
12/9 140 Princeton Home W 89-74
12/16 245 Wagner Home W 73-58
12/19 219 St Francis NY Home W 86-52
12/22 248 Sacred Heart Home W 104-82
12/29 48 Seton Hall Away L 74-76
1/1 18 Marquette Home W 89-69
1/5 86 Georgetown Away W 97-94
1/8 25 Villanova Away L 71-76
1/12 88 DePaul Home L 71-79
1/16 60 Creighton Home W 81-66
1/19 42 Butler Away L 71-80
1/27 86 Georgetown Home 82.3%
1/30 60 Creighton Away 49.3%
2/2 3 Duke Away 7.4%
2/5 18 Marquette Away 24.3%
2/9 80 Providence Home 80.4%
2/12 42 Butler Home 61.8%
2/17 25 Villanova Home 49.6%
2/20 80 Providence Away 54.8%
2/23 48 Seton Hall Home 66%
2/28 74 Xavier Home 79.7%
3/3 88 DePaul Away 57.1%
3/9 74 Xavier Away 54%