Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks. All of these projections for SF Austin are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

SF Austin Record and Rankings

Record: 8-8
Projected Final Record: 14.9-15.1

Southland Conference Record: 1-3
Projected Final Southland Record: 7.9-10.1
Projected Final Rank in the Southland: 9

SF Austin Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 257
RPI Rank: 263
NET Rank: 281
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 1-3 0-3 3-2
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.250 0.000 0.600

Our current projections give the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks a 2.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 97.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account SF Austin’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 2.2%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

SF Austin Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank TX Wesleyan Home W 83-71
11/8 No Rank SW Assemb God Home W 68-67
11/13 91 Miami FL Away L 58-96
11/20 286 Marist Home W 64-60
11/25 No Rank St Edward’s Home W 73-60
11/30 52 San Francisco Neutral L 58-76
12/1 288 WI Milwaukee Neutal W 66-51
12/7 114 Louisiana Tech Home L 93-96
12/15 162 ULM Away L 58-74
12/18 58 Baylor Away W 59-58
12/21 No Rank Arlington Bap Home W 97-47
12/30 50 Alabama Home L 69-79
1/2 320 SE Louisiana Home W 65-60
1/9 284 Nicholls St Away L 73-78
1/12 330 Northwestern LA Home L 59-61
1/16 208 New Orleans Away L 61-68
1/19 337 Incarnate Word Away 62.5%
1/23 140 Abilene Chr Home 36.6%
1/30 245 Cent Arkansas Home 56.5%
2/2 184 Sam Houston St Away 21.3%
2/6 242 Houston Bap Away 37.6%
2/9 277 Lamar Home 61.8%
2/13 298 McNeese St Home 66.8%
2/16 330 Northwestern LA Away 59.2%
2/20 280 TAM C. Christi Home 61.5%
2/23 337 Incarnate Word Home 81.8%
2/27 245 Cent Arkansas Away 38.5%
3/2 277 Lamar Away 43.3%
3/5 140 Abilene Chr Away 17.2%
3/9 184 Sam Houston St Home 43.7%