Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks. All of these projections for SF Austin are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

SF Austin Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 21.8-7.2

Southland Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Southland Record: 14.8-3.2
Projected Final Rank in the Southland: 1

SF Austin Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 125
RPI Rank: 298
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 16 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Our current projections give the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account SF Austin’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 14.6%
NCAA #14 Seed 69.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 16.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

SF Austin Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank TX Wesleyan Home W 83-71
11/8 No Rank SW Assemb God Home W 68-67
11/13 23 Miami FL Away 8.9%
11/20 281 Marist Home 88.9%
11/25 No Rank St Edward’s Home 98.7%
11/30 104 San Francisco Neutal 42.2%
12/7 81 Louisiana Tech Home 44.3%
12/15 227 ULM Away 64.1%
12/18 83 Baylor Away 17.4%
12/21 No Rank Arlington Bap Home 98.7%
12/30 57 Alabama Home 38.2%
1/2 239 SE Louisiana Home 84.5%
1/9 242 Nicholls St Away 65.3%
1/12 342 Northwestern LA Home 98.5%
1/16 300 New Orleans Away 80.4%
1/19 344 Incarnate Word Away 92.5%
1/23 213 Abilene Chr Home 79.7%
1/30 267 Cent Arkansas Home 87.8%
2/2 186 Sam Houston St Away 55.5%
2/6 339 Houston Bap Away 92%
2/9 283 Lamar Home 88.6%
2/13 317 McNeese St Home 93%
2/16 342 Northwestern LA Away 92.2%
2/20 308 TAM C. Christi Home 92.2%
2/23 344 Incarnate Word Home 98.5%
2/27 267 Cent Arkansas Away 70.3%
3/2 283 Lamar Away 72.1%
3/5 213 Abilene Chr Away 58.5%
3/9 186 Sam Houston St Home 73.8%