Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks. All of these projections for SF Austin are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

SF Austin Record and Rankings

Record: 22-5
Projected Final Record: 25.1-5.9

Southland Conference Record: 11-3
Projected Final Southland Record: 14.1-3.9
Projected Final Rank in the Southland: 2

SF Austin Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 115
RPI Rank: 142
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 16 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-2 0-0 2-1 15-2
Win % by Tier 0.333 0.000 0.667 0.882

Our current projections give the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 22.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 77.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account SF Austin’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 2.2%
NIT #7 Seed 13.2%
NIT #8 Seed 7.2%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

SF Austin Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/11 336 Longwood Away W 74-61
11/15 No Rank St Edward’s Home W 89-66
11/16 No Rank Le Tourneau Home W 91-68
11/18 No Rank Howard Payne Home W 118-64
11/22 50 Mississippi St Away L 75-80
11/26 344 Florida A&M Home W 79-63
11/28 187 N Dakota St Home W 54-50
12/2 215 ULM Home W 68-65
12/6 152 Louisiana Tech Away W 85-83
12/9 330 Rice Home W 81-62
12/16 57 LSU Away W 83-82
12/19 38 Missouri Away L 81-82
12/21 No Rank Arlington Bap Home W 116-66
12/28 193 SE Louisiana Away L 62-73
1/3 172 Nicholls St Home W 81-64
1/6 346 Northwestern LA Away W 64-56
1/10 239 New Orleans Home W 78-68
1/13 347 Incarnate Word Home W 83-63
1/17 252 Abilene Chr Away W 76-66
1/24 223 Cent Arkansas Away L 92-100
1/27 205 Sam Houston St Home W 82-66
1/31 337 Houston Bap Home W 102-82
2/3 219 Lamar Away L 54-76
2/8 298 McNeese St Away W 99-95
2/10 346 Northwestern LA Home W 97-50
2/14 307 TAM C. Christi Away W 87-68
2/17 347 Incarnate Word Away W 81-70
2/21 223 Cent Arkansas Home 79.7%
2/24 219 Lamar Home 81.6%
2/28 252 Abilene Chr Home 85.2%
3/3 205 Sam Houston St Away 60.1%