Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks. All of these projections for SF Austin are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

SF Austin Record and Rankings

Record: 14-16
Projected Final Record: 14.0-16.0

Southland Conference Record: 7-11
Projected Final Southland Record: 7.0-11.0
Projected Final Rank in the Southland: 10

SF Austin Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 298
RPI Rank: 294
NET Rank: 311
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-0 0-4 1-6 8-6
Win % by Tier 1.000 0.000 0.143 0.571

Our current projections give the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 100.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account SF Austin’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

SF Austin Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank TX Wesleyan Home W 83-71
11/8 No Rank SW Assemb God Home W 68-67
11/13 84 Miami FL Away L 58-96
11/20 293 Marist Home W 64-60
11/25 No Rank St Edward’s Home W 73-60
11/30 94 San Francisco Neutral L 58-76
12/1 306 WI Milwaukee Neutal W 66-51
12/7 137 Louisiana Tech Home L 93-96
12/15 165 ULM Away L 58-74
12/18 44 Baylor Away W 59-58
12/21 No Rank Arlington Bap Home W 97-47
12/30 54 Alabama Home L 69-79
1/2 223 SE Louisiana Home W 65-60
1/9 309 Nicholls St Away L 73-78
1/12 332 Northwestern LA Home L 59-61
1/16 220 New Orleans Away L 61-68
1/19 347 Incarnate Word Away W 74-71
1/23 140 Abilene Chr Home W 61-60
1/30 287 Cent Arkansas Home W 105-99
2/2 158 Sam Houston St Away L 72-94
2/6 286 Houston Bap Away W 79-77
2/9 212 Lamar Home L 67-82
2/13 331 McNeese St Home W 67-57
2/16 332 Northwestern LA Away L 72-87
2/20 280 TAM C. Christi Home L 55-65
2/23 347 Incarnate Word Home W 81-54
2/27 287 Cent Arkansas Away L 74-92
3/2 212 Lamar Away L 79-81
3/5 140 Abilene Chr Away L 58-72
3/9 158 Sam Houston St Home L 57-68