Stony Brook Seawolves Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Stony Brook Seawolves. All of these projections for Stony Brook are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 12/10/2018.

Stony Brook Record and Rankings

Record: 8-2
Projected Final Record: 23.4-7.6

America East Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final America East Record: 12.0-4.0
Projected Final Rank in the America East: 2

Stony Brook Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 145
RPI Rank: 107
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 1-2 1-0 5-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.333 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Stony Brook Seawolves a 22.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 19.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 59.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Stony Brook’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 4.6%
NCAA #14 Seed 12.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 4.6%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.4%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 1.6%
NIT #7 Seed 12.4%
NIT #8 Seed 5.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Stony Brook Seawolves. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Stony Brook Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 312 G Washington Away W 77-74
11/9 163 South Carolina Away W 83-81
11/16 133 Holy Cross Neutral L 70-84
11/17 297 Norfolk St Neutal W 72-65
11/21 No Rank Molloy Home W 97-61
11/24 121 Rhode Island Away W 68-58
11/27 297 Norfolk St Away W 79-73
12/1 264 Quinnipiac Home W 71-61
12/5 322 Manhattan Away W 69-62
12/8 172 Brown Away L 69-71
12/12 255 LIU Brooklyn Home 86.4%
12/16 194 Delaware Home 80.4%
12/19 139 Hofstra Home 58.2%
12/22 264 Quinnipiac Away 64.1%
12/29 186 Northern Iowa Away 54.4%
1/5 223 MA Lowell Away 59.5%
1/9 336 Binghamton Home 95.7%
1/12 347 New Hampshire Home 98.6%
1/19 333 Maine Away 82.1%
1/23 307 Albany NY Away 71.2%
1/26 117 Vermont Home 53.3%
1/30 178 UMBC Away 51.5%
2/2 258 Hartford Home 85%
2/6 336 Binghamton Away 82.1%
2/9 223 MA Lowell Home 82.6%
2/16 347 New Hampshire Away 91.7%
2/21 307 Albany NY Home 89.7%
2/23 333 Maine Home 93%
2/27 178 UMBC Home 73.8%
3/2 117 Vermont Away 31.7%
3/5 258 Hartford Away 59.5%