Stony Brook Seawolves Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Stony Brook Seawolves. All of these projections for Stony Brook are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Stony Brook Record and Rankings

Record: 15-3
Projected Final Record: 24.7-6.3

America East Conference Record: 3-0
Projected Final America East Record: 12.7-3.3
Projected Final Rank in the America East: 2

Stony Brook Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 102
RPI Rank: 62
NET Rank: 127
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 2-2 4-1 8-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.500 0.800 1.000

Our current projections give the Stony Brook Seawolves a 28.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 22.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 49.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Stony Brook’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 14.8%
NCAA #14 Seed 10.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.4%
NIT #6 Seed 4.2%
NIT #7 Seed 15.0%
NIT #8 Seed 3.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Stony Brook Seawolves. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Stony Brook Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 252 G Washington Away W 77-74
11/9 90 South Carolina Away W 83-81
11/16 176 Holy Cross Neutral L 70-84
11/17 258 Norfolk St Neutal W 72-65
11/21 No Rank Molloy Home W 97-61
11/24 134 Rhode Island Away W 68-58
11/27 258 Norfolk St Away W 79-73
12/1 224 Quinnipiac Home W 71-61
12/5 339 Manhattan Away W 69-62
12/8 133 Brown Away L 69-71
12/12 256 LIU Brooklyn Home W 83-79
12/16 193 Delaware Home W 74-68
12/19 70 Hofstra Home L 64-71
12/22 224 Quinnipiac Away W 76-73
12/29 191 Northern Iowa Away W 73-63
1/5 218 MA Lowell Away W 75-63
1/9 336 Binghamton Home W 59-46
1/12 345 New Hampshire Home W 62-44
1/19 321 Maine Away 80.9%
1/23 304 Albany NY Away 75.7%
1/26 80 Vermont Home 52.2%
1/30 263 UMBC Away 65.3%
2/2 190 Hartford Home 83%
2/6 336 Binghamton Away 82.1%
2/9 218 MA Lowell Home 85.2%
2/16 345 New Hampshire Away 90.6%
2/21 304 Albany NY Home 92%
2/23 321 Maine Home 92.6%
2/27 263 UMBC Home 87%
3/2 80 Vermont Away 29%
3/5 190 Hartford Away 56.9%