Summit Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Summit League Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Summit are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/17/2018.

Summit Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 S Dakota St 9 4 23.6 7.4 0 0 9.5 2.5
2 South Dakota 6 5 16.5 12.5 0 0 6.9 5.1
3 N Dakota St 4 7 15.7 14.3 0 0 6.5 5.5
4 NE Omaha 4 7 14.1 14.9 0 0 6.1 5.9
5 Denver 4 8 12.1 17.9 0 0 4.8 7.2
6 W Illinois 4 7 12.9 17.1 0 0 4.6 7.4
7 Oral Roberts 4 9 10.2 20.8 0 0 3.6 8.4
8 IPFW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Projected Summit Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Summit League Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
S Dakota St 15 2.203

Projected Summit Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Summit League Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
S Dakota St 80% 13% 3% 3% 100%
South Dakota 8% 29% 23% 21% 100%
N Dakota St 9% 26% 26% 16% 100%
NE Omaha 3% 18% 29% 25% 100%
Denver 0% 6% 9% 12% 100%
W Illinois 0% 5% 6% 18% 100%
Oral Roberts 0% 3% 4% 5% 100%
IPFW 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Summit Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Summit League Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Summit League Men’s Basketball Tournament Bracket features the eight teams from the league in a standard eight team playoff.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Denny Sanford Premier Center (Sioux Falls, SD)
Quarterfinals: March 9th and 10th, 2019
Semifinals: March 11th, 2019
Finals: March 12th, 2019

Coming Soon!

Summit Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
12/28 South Dakota 44.1% N Dakota St 55.9% N Dakota St wins by 2
12/28 Denver 31.7% NE Omaha 68.3% NE Omaha wins by 6
12/28 S Dakota St 80.4% W Illinois 19.6% S Dakota St wins by 9
12/30 Oral Roberts 20.1% NE Omaha 79.9% NE Omaha wins by 9
12/30 Denver 43.3% W Illinois 56.7% W Illinois wins by 3
1/2 N Dakota St 44.5% NE Omaha 55.5% NE Omaha wins by 2
1/2 South Dakota 58.2% Denver 41.8% South Dakota wins by 3
1/5 W Illinois 51.5% Oral Roberts 48.5% W Illinois wins by 1
1/6 S Dakota St 64.1% South Dakota 35.9% S Dakota St wins by 5
1/10 Denver 8.9% S Dakota St 91.1% S Dakota St wins by 13
1/10 W Illinois 25.2% N Dakota St 74.8% N Dakota St wins by 8
1/12 Oral Roberts 7.4% S Dakota St 92.6% S Dakota St wins by 15
1/16 N Dakota St 55.7% Denver 44.3% N Dakota St wins by 2
1/17 South Dakota 64.1% Oral Roberts 35.9% South Dakota wins by 5
1/17 NE Omaha 52.9% W Illinois 47.1% NE Omaha wins by 1
1/20 South Dakota 49.3% NE Omaha 50.7% NE Omaha wins by 1
1/20 Oral Roberts 31.3% Denver 68.7% Denver wins by 6
1/24 N Dakota St 16.5% S Dakota St 83.5% S Dakota St wins by 10

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC