These are the latest Summit League Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Summit are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.
Summit Projected Standings
| Rank | Team | All Games | Conference Games | Actual | Projected | Actual | Projected | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins | Losses | Wins | Losses | Wins | Losses | Wins | Losses | ||
| 1 | S Dakota St | 21 | 7 | 23.6 | 7.4 | 11 | 2 | 13.6 | 2.4 |
| 2 | NE Omaha | 17 | 9 | 18.9 | 10.1 | 11 | 2 | 12.9 | 3.1 |
| 3 | PFW | 17 | 11 | 18.6 | 12.4 | 9 | 4 | 10.6 | 5.4 |
| 4 | N Dakota St | 14 | 13 | 15.3 | 14.7 | 8 | 5 | 9.3 | 6.7 |
| 5 | Oral Roberts | 10 | 19 | 10.8 | 20.2 | 6 | 8 | 6.8 | 9.2 |
| 6 | South Dakota | 11 | 15 | 12.4 | 16.6 | 5 | 8 | 6.4 | 9.6 |
| 7 | North Dakota | 10 | 16 | 11.1 | 17.9 | 4 | 9 | 5.1 | 10.9 |
| 8 | W Illinois | 8 | 18 | 9 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | Denver | 7 | 20 | 8.2 | 21.8 | 2 | 11 | 3.2 | 12.8 |
Projected Summit Tournament Bids
Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Summit League Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.
| Team | Seed | Bracket Rating |
|---|---|---|
| S Dakota St | 14 | 1.606 |
Projected Summit Regular Season Finish
Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Summit League Conference standings.
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Top 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Dakota St | 77% | 22% | 1% | 0% | 100% |
| NE Omaha | 23% | 72% | 5% | 0% | 100% |
| PFW | 0% | 6% | 74% | 20% | 100% |
| N Dakota St | 0% | 0% | 20% | 75% | 100% |
| Oral Roberts | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 100% |
| South Dakota | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| North Dakota | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 94% |
| W Illinois | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 70% |
| Denver | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 36% |
Summit Conference Tournament Predictions
Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Summit League Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Summit League Men’s Basketball Tournament Bracket features the eight teams from the league in a standard eight team playoff.
Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Denny Sanford Premier Center (Sioux Falls, SD)
Quarterfinals: March 9th and 10th, 2019
Semifinals: March 11th, 2019
Finals: March 12th, 2019
| Seed | Team | To Advance To | Semis | Finals | To Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Summit Upcoming Conference Games with Projections
Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.
| Date | Away Team | Away Prob to Win | Home Team | Home Prob to Win | Game Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/21 | PFW | 18.4% | S Dakota St | 81.6% | S Dakota St wins by 9 |
| 2/23 | NE Omaha | 55.9% | N Dakota St | 44.1% | NE Omaha wins by 2 |
| 2/23 | South Dakota | 14.6% | S Dakota St | 85.4% | S Dakota St wins by 11 |
| 2/23 | Denver | 34.4% | North Dakota | 65.6% | North Dakota wins by 5 |
| 2/23 | Oral Roberts | 48.5% | W Illinois | 51.5% | W Illinois wins by 1 |
| 2/28 | N Dakota St | 45.6% | South Dakota | 54.4% | South Dakota wins by 2 |
| 2/28 | NE Omaha | 65.3% | Oral Roberts | 34.7% | NE Omaha wins by 5 |
| 2/28 | North Dakota | 18.4% | PFW | 81.6% | PFW wins by 9 |
| 2/28 | W Illinois | 43.5% | Denver | 56.5% | Denver wins by 2 |
| 3/2 | NE Omaha | 72.5% | Denver | 27.5% | NE Omaha wins by 7 |
| 3/2 | N Dakota St | 37.6% | PFW | 62.5% | PFW wins by 4 |
| 3/2 | North Dakota | 28.6% | South Dakota | 71.4% | South Dakota wins by 7 |
| 3/2 | W Illinois | 7.8% | S Dakota St | 92.2% | S Dakota St wins by 15 |
Projections in Other Conferences
For other conferences, please see below.