Summit Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Summit League Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Summit are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

Summit Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 S Dakota St 21 7 23.6 7.4 11 2 13.6 2.4
2 NE Omaha 17 9 18.9 10.1 11 2 12.9 3.1
3 PFW 17 11 18.6 12.4 9 4 10.6 5.4
4 N Dakota St 14 13 15.3 14.7 8 5 9.3 6.7
5 Oral Roberts 10 19 10.8 20.2 6 8 6.8 9.2
6 South Dakota 11 15 12.4 16.6 5 8 6.4 9.6
7 North Dakota 10 16 11.1 17.9 4 9 5.1 10.9
8 W Illinois 8 18 9 20 3 10 4 12
9 Denver 7 20 8.2 21.8 2 11 3.2 12.8

Projected Summit Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Summit League Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
S Dakota St 14 1.606

Projected Summit Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Summit League Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
S Dakota St 77% 22% 1% 0% 100%
NE Omaha 23% 72% 5% 0% 100%
PFW 0% 6% 74% 20% 100%
N Dakota St 0% 0% 20% 75% 100%
Oral Roberts 0% 0% 0% 5% 100%
South Dakota 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
North Dakota 0% 0% 0% 0% 94%
W Illinois 0% 0% 0% 0% 70%
Denver 0% 0% 0% 0% 36%

Summit Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Summit League Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Summit League Men’s Basketball Tournament Bracket features the eight teams from the league in a standard eight team playoff.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Denny Sanford Premier Center (Sioux Falls, SD)
Quarterfinals: March 9th and 10th, 2019
Semifinals: March 11th, 2019
Finals: March 12th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Semis Finals To Win
1
S Dakota St
86.3%
68.6%
50.3%
2
NE Omaha
75.7%
45.4%
20.3%
3
PFW
64.3%
26.8%
10.9%
4
N Dakota St
60.1%
23.4%
7.9%
5
Oral Roberts
33.5%
7.3%
1.2%
6
South Dakota
42.2%
16.3%
6.1%
7
North Dakota
21.7%
6.3%
1.7%
8
W Illinois
13%
5%
1.2%
9
Denver
3.2%
0.9%
0.4%

Summit Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 PFW 18.4% S Dakota St 81.6% S Dakota St wins by 9
2/23 NE Omaha 55.9% N Dakota St 44.1% NE Omaha wins by 2
2/23 South Dakota 14.6% S Dakota St 85.4% S Dakota St wins by 11
2/23 Denver 34.4% North Dakota 65.6% North Dakota wins by 5
2/23 Oral Roberts 48.5% W Illinois 51.5% W Illinois wins by 1
2/28 N Dakota St 45.6% South Dakota 54.4% South Dakota wins by 2
2/28 NE Omaha 65.3% Oral Roberts 34.7% NE Omaha wins by 5
2/28 North Dakota 18.4% PFW 81.6% PFW wins by 9
2/28 W Illinois 43.5% Denver 56.5% Denver wins by 2
3/2 NE Omaha 72.5% Denver 27.5% NE Omaha wins by 7
3/2 N Dakota St 37.6% PFW 62.5% PFW wins by 4
3/2 North Dakota 28.6% South Dakota 71.4% South Dakota wins by 7
3/2 W Illinois 7.8% S Dakota St 92.2% S Dakota St wins by 15

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC