Summit Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Summit League Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Summit are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2018.

Summit Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 S Dakota St 23 6 24.1 6.9 11 1 12.1 1.9
2 South Dakota 24 6 24.5 6.5 11 2 11.5 2.5
3 Denver 13 14 13.6 14.4 7 6 7.6 6.4
4 IPFW 18 12 18.4 12.6 7 6 7.4 6.6
5 N Dakota St 13 15 14.2 15.8 4 8 5.2 8.8
6 NE Omaha 9 19 9.9 20.1 4 8 4.9 9.1
7 Oral Roberts 9 20 10.5 20.5 4 9 4.5 9.5
8 W Illinois 11 14 11.8 15.2 2 10 2.8 11.2

Projected Summit Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Summit League Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
S Dakota St 13 2.933

Summit Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Summit League Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each Summit team. The Summit League Men’s Basketball Tournament Bracket features the eight teams from the league in a standard eight team playoff.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Denny Sanford Premier Center (Sioux Falls, SD)
Quarterfinals: March 4th and 5th, 2018
Semifinals: March 6th, 2018
Finals: March 7th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Semis Finals To Win
1
S Dakota St
91.5%
71.7%
44.8%
2
South Dakota
87.5%
70.8%
39.4%
3
Denver
72.3%
20.1%
5.2%
4
IPFW
61.1%
17.5%
6.6%
5
N Dakota St
38.9%
9.4%
2.4%
6
NE Omaha
27.7%
2.7%
0.4%
7
Oral Roberts
12.5%
6.4%
0.9%
8
W Illinois
8.5%
1.4%
0.3%

Summit Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/22 N Dakota St 61.8% W Illinois 38.2% N Dakota St wins by 4
2/22 Oral Roberts 52.2% NE Omaha 47.8% Oral Roberts wins by 1
2/22 South Dakota 46.7% S Dakota St 53.3% S Dakota St wins by 1
2/24 S Dakota St 61.5% IPFW 38.5% S Dakota St wins by 4
2/24 Denver 57.8% W Illinois 42.2% Denver wins by 3
2/24 N Dakota St 61.1% NE Omaha 38.9% N Dakota St wins by 4

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC