Sun Belt Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest Sun Belt Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Sun Belt are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2018.

Sun Belt Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 ULL 23 4 26.3 4.7 13 1 16.3 1.7
2 Georgia St 19 8 21.7 9.3 10 4 12.7 5.3
3 Ga Southern 17 10 19.4 11.6 8 6 10.4 7.6
4 ULM 13 12 15.2 13.8 7 7 9.2 8.8
5 Appalachian St 12 16 13.7 17.3 7 8 8.7 9.3
6 UT Arlington 16 12 17.7 13.3 7 8 8.7 9.3
7 Troy 13 14 14.6 16.4 7 7 8.6 9.4
8 Texas St 14 14 15.3 15.7 7 8 8.3 9.7
9 South Alabama 14 13 15.2 15.8 7 7 8.2 9.8
10 Coastal Car 12 16 13.6 17.4 6 9 7.6 10.4
11 Arkansas St 9 18 10.2 20.8 4 10 5.2 12.8
12 Ark Little Rock 6 21 7.1 23.9 3 11 4.1 13.9

Projected Sun Belt Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Sun Belt Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
ULL 12 3.638

Sun Belt Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each Sun Belt team. The Sun Belt Conference has a standard twelve team tournament at a neutral site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Lakefront Arena (New Orleans, LA)
First Round: March 7th, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 9th, 2018
Semifinals: March 10th, 2018
Finals: March 11th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
ULL
100%
82.1%
70%
53%
2
Georgia St
100%
67.8%
39.6%
17.5%
3
Ga Southern
100%
56.9%
27.4%
9.1%
4
ULM
100%
53.8%
11.2%
3.5%
5
Appalachian St
66.6%
34.6%
7%
2.5%
6
UT Arlington
76.8%
38.6%
17.7%
6.1%
7
Troy
55.5%
18.4%
8.2%
2.3%
8
Texas St
51.4%
9.3%
5.2%
2.2%
9
South Alabama
48.6%
8.6%
4.6%
1.6%
10
Coastal Car
44.5%
13.8%
6.2%
1.6%
11
Arkansas St
23.2%
4.5%
0.9%
0.2%
12
Ark Little Rock
33.4%
11.6%
2%
0.4%

Sun Belt Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/22 Coastal Car 58.5% Ark Little Rock 41.5% Coastal Car wins by 3
2/22 Appalachian St 56.1% Arkansas St 43.9% Appalachian St wins by 2
2/22 ULM 41.8% South Alabama 58.2% South Alabama wins by 3
2/22 Georgia St 60.1% Texas St 39.9% Georgia St wins by 4
2/22 Ga Southern 41.8% UT Arlington 58.2% UT Arlington wins by 3
2/22 ULL 68.3% Troy 31.7% ULL wins by 6
2/24 Appalachian St 57.1% Ark Little Rock 42.9% Appalachian St wins by 3
2/24 Coastal Car 56.9% Arkansas St 43.1% Coastal Car wins by 3
2/24 ULL 79.2% South Alabama 20.8% ULL wins by 8
2/24 Ga Southern 55.7% Texas St 44.3% Ga Southern wins by 2
2/24 Georgia St 48.5% UT Arlington 51.5% UT Arlington wins by 1
2/24 ULM 30.9% Troy 69.1% Troy wins by 6
3/1 South Alabama 22.3% Ga Southern 77.7% Ga Southern wins by 8
3/1 Troy 25.2% Georgia St 74.8% Georgia St wins by 8
3/1 Ark Little Rock 23.8% ULM 76.2% ULM wins by 8
3/1 Arkansas St 7% ULL 93% ULL wins by 16
3/2 UT Arlington 55.9% Texas St 44.1% UT Arlington wins by 2
3/3 Coastal Car 43.1% Appalachian St 56.9% Appalachian St wins by 3

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC