Sun Belt Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Sun Belt Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Sun Belt are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

Sun Belt Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Texas St 21 5 24.5 6.5 10 3 13.5 4.5
2 Georgia St 18 8 21.3 9.7 9 4 12.3 5.7
3 Ga Southern 16 10 19.5 11.5 8 5 11.5 6.5
4 UT Arlington 12 14 14.7 16.3 8 5 10.7 7.3
5 Coastal Car 12 12 15.2 14.8 6 6 9.2 8.8
6 ULM 13 11 16 14 6 6 9 9
7 Louisiana 15 10 17.9 13.1 6 6 8.9 9.1
8 South Alabama 12 14 13.8 17.2 5 8 6.8 11.2
9 Arkansas St 11 15 12.7 18.3 5 8 6.7 11.3
10 Ark Little Rock 10 16 11.7 19.3 5 8 6.7 11.3
11 Appalachian St 9 16 11.6 19.4 4 8 6.6 11.4
12 Troy 11 14 13.1 16.9 4 9 6.1 11.9

Projected Sun Belt Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Sun Belt Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Ga Southern 15 0.853

Projected Sun Belt Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Sun Belt Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Texas St 70% 23% 4% 3% 100%
Georgia St 25% 32% 29% 11% 100%
Ga Southern 4% 30% 29% 26% 100%
UT Arlington 1% 12% 32% 33% 100%
Coastal Car 0% 1% 3% 6% 91%
ULM 0% 1% 2% 13% 94%
Louisiana 0% 1% 1% 7% 89%
South Alabama 0% 0% 0% 0% 32%
Arkansas St 0% 0% 0% 0% 25%
Ark Little Rock 0% 0% 0% 0% 25%
Appalachian St 0% 0% 0% 1% 27%
Troy 0% 0% 0% 0% 17%

Sun Belt Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Sun Belt Conference has completely changed the way that their tournament will run in 2019. The bottom two teams in the standings will not make the tournament and the 7th through 10-seed will play the First Round at the higher seed’s site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Campus Sites (1st Round), Lakefront Arena (New Orleans, LA)
First Round: March 12th, 2018
Second Round: March 14th, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 15th, 2019
Semifinals: March 16th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Texas St
100%
71.5%
41.2%
24%
2
Georgia St
100%
68.5%
39.6%
19.7%
3
Ga Southern
100%
68.6%
40.8%
24.5%
4
UT Arlington
100%
47.1%
16.9%
6.4%
5
Coastal Car
92.6%
40.2%
20.3%
9.7%
6
ULM
78.5%
32.9%
14.1%
6.1%
7
Louisiana
86.2%
31.7%
13.4%
5.4%
8
South Alabama
30.3%
9.4%
2.2%
0.6%
9
Arkansas St
24.2%
4.1%
1.1%
0.3%
10
Ark Little Rock
31.8%
9.9%
4.2%
1.1%
11
Appalachian St
36.3%
11.4%
4.6%
1.7%
12
Troy
20.1%
4.7%
1.6%
0.5%

Sun Belt Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 Louisiana 39.2% UT Arlington 60.8% UT Arlington wins by 4
2/21 Georgia St 63.4% Appalachian St 36.6% Georgia St wins by 5
2/21 ULM 21.3% Texas St 78.7% Texas St wins by 8
2/21 Ga Southern 56.5% Coastal Car 43.5% Ga Southern wins by 2
2/23 Ga Southern 62.8% Appalachian St 37.2% Ga Southern wins by 5
2/23 South Alabama 40.2% Troy 59.8% Troy wins by 4
2/23 Louisiana 19.4% Texas St 80.6% Texas St wins by 9
2/23 Ark Little Rock 43.5% Arkansas St 56.5% Arkansas St wins by 2
2/23 ULM 42.2% UT Arlington 57.8% UT Arlington wins by 3
2/23 Georgia St 56.7% Coastal Car 43.3% Georgia St wins by 3
2/28 Ark Little Rock 16% Ga Southern 84% Ga Southern wins by 10
2/28 Texas St 66% Troy 34% Texas St wins by 5
2/28 UT Arlington 56.3% South Alabama 43.7% UT Arlington wins by 2
2/28 Arkansas St 14.8% Georgia St 85.2% Georgia St wins by 11
2/28 Appalachian St 30.9% ULM 69.1% ULM wins by 6
2/28 Coastal Car 43.7% Louisiana 56.3% Louisiana wins by 2
3/2 Texas St 67.2% South Alabama 32.8% Texas St wins by 6
3/2 UT Arlington 55.1% Troy 44.9% UT Arlington wins by 2

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC