Sun Belt Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Sun Belt Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the Sun Belt are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/10/2018.

Sun Belt Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Georgia St 6 3 22.4 8.6 0 0 11.5 4.5
2 Ga Southern 6 2 22 9 0 0 11.4 4.6
3 Texas St 9 1 22.8 8.2 0 0 11.2 5.8
4 Appalachian St 4 5 15.4 15.6 0 0 8.2 7.8
5 Troy 3 5 14 16 0 0 8 9
6 Coastal Car 5 5 15.2 14.8 0 0 7.4 8.6
7 South Alabama 5 5 15.7 15.3 0 0 7.4 9.6
8 Ark Little Rock 4 6 13.3 17.7 0 0 6.5 9.5
9 UT Arlington 3 7 11.1 19.9 0 0 6.5 10.5
10 Arkansas St 3 6 12.5 18.5 0 0 6 10
11 ULM 3 4 13.1 16.9 0 0 5.9 10.1
12 ULL 3 3 3 3 0 0 0 0

Projected Sun Belt Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Sun Belt Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Georgia St 13 3.492

Projected Sun Belt Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Sun Belt Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Georgia St 37% 23% 19% 12% 100%
Ga Southern 33% 32% 21% 6% 100%
Texas St 24% 26% 27% 11% 98%
Appalachian St 1% 4% 10% 18% 79%
Troy 3% 8% 5% 11% 85%
Coastal Car 0% 5% 8% 9% 69%
South Alabama 2% 2% 4% 17% 76%
Ark Little Rock 0% 0% 2% 1% 51%
UT Arlington 0% 0% 1% 11% 60%
Arkansas St 0% 0% 0% 3% 38%
ULM 0% 0% 3% 1% 44%
ULL 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Sun Belt Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The Sun Belt Conference has completely changed the way that their tournament will run in 2019. The bottom two teams in the standings will not make the tournament and the 7th through 10-seed will play the First Round at the higher seed’s site.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Campus Sites (1st Round), Lakefront Arena (New Orleans, LA)
First Round: March 12th, 2018
Second Round: March 14th, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 15th, 2019
Semifinals: March 16th, 2019

Coming Soon!

Sun Belt Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
1/3 Appalachian St 48.9% South Alabama 51.1% South Alabama wins by 1
1/3 Ga Southern 48.2% Texas St 51.8% Texas St wins by 1
1/3 Georgia St 73.4% UT Arlington 26.6% Georgia St wins by 7
1/3 Ark Little Rock 42.7% ULM 57.3% ULM wins by 3
1/3 Coastal Car 39.9% Troy 60.1% Troy wins by 4
1/5 Appalachian St 43.7% Troy 56.3% Troy wins by 2
1/5 Georgia St 48.5% Texas St 51.5% Texas St wins by 1
1/5 Arkansas St 39.5% ULM 60.5% ULM wins by 4
1/5 Coastal Car 43.3% South Alabama 56.7% South Alabama wins by 3
1/5 Ga Southern 72.9% UT Arlington 27.1% Ga Southern wins by 7
1/10 Troy 51.1% Ark Little Rock 48.9% Troy wins by 1
1/10 UT Arlington 30.1% Appalachian St 69.9% Appalachian St wins by 6
1/10 South Alabama 50% Arkansas St 50% South Alabama wins by 1
1/10 ULM 8.9% Ga Southern 91.1% Ga Southern wins by 13
1/10 Texas St 63.4% Coastal Car 36.6% Texas St wins by 5
1/12 Texas St 60.1% Appalachian St 39.9% Texas St wins by 4
1/12 South Alabama 44.5% Ark Little Rock 55.5% Ark Little Rock wins by 2
1/12 Troy 54.4% Arkansas St 45.6% Troy wins by 2

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC