Syracuse Orange Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Syracuse Orange. All of these projections for Syracuse are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Syracuse Record and Rankings

Record: 18-9
Projected Final Record: 19.5-11.5

ACC Conference Record: 7-7
Projected Final ACC Record: 8.5-9.5
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 10

Syracuse Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 49
RPI Rank: 39
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Last 4 Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-5 4-3 7-1 5-0
Win % by Tier 0.286 0.571 0.875 1.000

Our current projections give the Syracuse Orange a 27.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 64.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 8.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Syracuse’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 5.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 8.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 8.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 21.4%
NIT #2 Seed 19.2%
NIT #3 Seed 15.2%
NIT #4 Seed 7.4%
NIT #5 Seed 1.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Syracuse Orange. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Syracuse Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 254 Cornell Home W 77-45
11/14 166 Iona Home W 71-62
11/18 301 TX Southern Home W 80-67
11/20 154 Oakland Home W 74-50
11/22 109 Toledo Home W 72-64
11/27 53 Maryland Home W 72-70
12/2 11 Kansas Miami, FL L 60-76
12/5 129 Connecticut New York, NY W 72-63
12/9 222 Colgate Home W 72-58
12/16 77 Georgetown Away W 86-79
12/19 79 Buffalo Home W 81-74
12/22 56 St Bonaventure Home L 57-60
12/27 177 E Michigan Home W 62-47
12/31 32 Virginia Tech Home W 68-56
1/3 106 Wake Forest Away L 67-73
1/6 54 Notre Dame Home L 49-51
1/9 1 Virginia Away L 61-68
1/13 31 Florida St Away L 90-101
1/16 209 Pittsburgh Home W 59-45
1/24 82 Boston College Home W 81-63
1/27 209 Pittsburgh Away W 60-55
1/31 122 Georgia Tech Away L 51-55
2/3 1 Virginia Home L 44-59
2/5 41 Louisville Away W 78-73
2/11 106 Wake Forest Home W 78-70
2/14 44 NC State Home L 70-74
2/17 45 Miami FL Away W 62-55
2/21 10 North Carolina Home 42.2%
2/24 6 Duke Away 11.1%
2/28 82 Boston College Away 51.8%
3/3 12 Clemson Home 48.9%