TCU Horned Frogs Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the TCU Horned Frogs. All of these projections for TCU are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

TCU Record and Rankings

Record: 21-12
Projected Final Record: 21.0-12.0

Big 12 Conference Record: 9-10
Projected Final Big 12 Record: 9.0-10.0
Projected Final Rank in the Big 12: 5

TCU Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 22
RPI Rank: 25
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 7 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 4-8 4-3 9-0 4-0
Win % by Tier 0.333 0.571 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the TCU Horned Frogs a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account TCU’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #4 Seed 6.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 16.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 34.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 30.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 7.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 4.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the TCU Horned Frogs. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

TCU Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 220 ULM Home W 83-73
11/13 197 Tennessee Tech Home W 100-63
11/15 77 South Dakota Home W 76-71
11/20 282 NE Omaha Home W 99-66
11/24 99 New Mexico Niceville, FL W 69-67
11/25 61 St Bonaventure Niceville, FL W 89-79
11/29 88 Belmont Home W 87-76
12/2 199 Yale Home W 92-66
12/5 98 SMU Home W 94-83
12/8 34 Nevada Los Angeles, CA W 84-80
12/18 264 TX Southern Home W 91-72
12/22 143 William & Mary Home W 86-75
12/30 40 Oklahoma Home L 89-90
1/2 35 Baylor Away W 81-78
1/6 7 Kansas Home L 84-88
1/10 32 Texas Away L 98-99
1/13 40 Oklahoma Away L 97-102
1/17 92 Iowa St Home W 96-73
1/20 25 Kansas St Away L 68-73
1/22 13 West Virginia Home W 82-73
1/27 86 Vanderbilt Away L 78-81
1/30 37 Oklahoma St Away W 79-66
2/3 15 Texas Tech Home L 71-83
2/6 7 Kansas Away L 64-71
2/10 32 Texas Home W 87-71
2/12 13 West Virginia Away L 66-82
2/17 37 Oklahoma St Home W 90-70
2/21 92 Iowa St Away W 89-83
2/24 35 Baylor Home W 82-72
2/27 25 Kansas St Home W 66-59
3/3 15 Texas Tech Away L 75-79
3/8 25 Kansas St Kansas City, MO L 64-66
3/16 54 Syracuse NCAA Tournament Detroit, MI L 52-57