TCU Horned Frogs Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the TCU Horned Frogs. All of these projections for TCU are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

TCU Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 18.7-11.3

Big 12 Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Big 12 Record: 8.6-9.4
Projected Final Rank in the Big 12: 5

TCU Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 59
RPI Rank: 75
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 10 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 2-0 0-0 0-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000

Our current projections give the TCU Horned Frogs a 82.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 12.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 5.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account TCU’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #2 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 5.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 8.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 11.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 17.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 14.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 15.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 8.8%
NIT #2 Seed 2.4%
NIT #3 Seed 0.8%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the TCU Horned Frogs. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

TCU Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/7 196 CS Bakersfield Home W 66-61
11/11 312 Oral Roberts Home W 79-62
11/15 136 Fresno St Home 87%
11/20 170 Lipscomb Home 91.7%
11/26 117 E Michigan Home 82.1%
11/30 123 C Michigan Home 81.8%
12/5 210 SMU Away 79.4%
12/7 63 USC Away 40.9%
12/16 195 Indiana St Home 92.2%
12/22 289 Charlotte Neutral 94.7%
12/28 No Rank Hawaii Pacific Away 98.5%
1/5 83 Baylor Home 64.9%
1/9 6 Kansas Away 13.7%
1/12 74 Oklahoma Away 43.5%
1/15 44 West Virginia Home 59.2%
1/19 46 Kansas St Away 39.9%
1/23 54 Texas Home 60.8%
1/26 48 Florida Home 59.8%
1/28 29 Texas Tech Away 29.4%
2/2 83 Baylor Away 43.7%
2/6 87 Oklahoma St Home 71%
2/9 60 Iowa St Away 36.2%
2/11 6 Kansas Home 35.5%
2/16 74 Oklahoma Home 64.1%
2/18 87 Oklahoma St Away 48.9%
2/23 60 Iowa St Home 56.9%
2/26 44 West Virginia Away 39.2%
3/2 29 Texas Tech Home 51.5%
3/4 46 Kansas St Home 60.5%
3/9 54 Texas Away 40.2%