Tennessee Volunteers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Tennessee Volunteers. All of these projections for Tennessee are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Tennessee Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 24.5-5.5

SEC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final SEC Record: 13.8-4.2
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 1

Tennessee Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 7
RPI Rank: 218
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 5 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Tennessee Volunteers a 97.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 1.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 1.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Tennessee’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 4.8%
NCAA #2 Seed 16.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 58.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 7.8%
NCAA #5 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.2%
NIT #2 Seed 0.2%
NIT #3 Seed 0.2%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Tennessee Volunteers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Tennessee Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank Lenoir Rhyne Home W 86-41
11/9 114 ULL Home W 87-65
11/13 96 Georgia Tech Home 93.4%
11/21 38 Louisville Neutal 77.3%
11/28 278 E Kentucky Home 99.1%
12/2 308 TAM C. Christi Home 99.4%
12/9 3 Gonzaga Neutal 44.9%
12/15 105 Memphis Away 80.9%
12/19 162 Samford Home 98.4%
12/22 103 Wake Forest Home 93.4%
12/29 311 Tennessee Tech Home 99.4%
1/5 49 Georgia Home 87.5%
1/8 89 Missouri Away 79.2%
1/12 48 Florida Away 66%
1/15 58 Arkansas Home 88.6%
1/19 57 Alabama Home 90.3%
1/23 30 Vanderbilt Away 59.2%
1/26 44 West Virginia Home 88.1%
1/29 112 South Carolina Away 80.4%
2/2 70 Texas A&M Away 72.5%
2/5 89 Missouri Home 92.6%
2/9 48 Florida Home 88.3%
2/13 112 South Carolina Home 93%
2/16 11 Kentucky Away 42.7%
2/19 30 Vanderbilt Home 83.5%
2/23 51 LSU Away 68.3%
2/27 91 Mississippi Away 76.7%
3/2 11 Kentucky Home 64.1%
3/5 32 Mississippi St Home 85.2%
3/9 19 Auburn Away 57.1%