Tennessee Volunteers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Tennessee Volunteers. All of these projections for Tennessee are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Tennessee Record and Rankings

Record: 16-1
Projected Final Record: 27.4-3.6

SEC Conference Record: 5-0
Projected Final SEC Record: 15.5-2.5
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 1

Tennessee Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 4
RPI Rank: 4
NET Rank: 3
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 1 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 3-1 3-0 4-0 5-0
Win % by Tier 0.750 1.000 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Tennessee Volunteers a 98.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 1.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Tennessee’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 44.8%
NCAA #2 Seed 31.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 7.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 4.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.4%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.4%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Tennessee Volunteers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Tennessee Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank Lenoir Rhyne Home W 86-41
11/9 167 Louisiana Home W 87-65
11/13 89 Georgia Tech Home W 66-53
11/21 21 Louisville Neutal W 92-81
11/23 7 Kansas Neutral L 81-87
11/28 225 E Kentucky Home W 95-67
12/2 261 TAM C. Christi Home W 79-51
12/9 5 Gonzaga Neutal W 76-73
12/15 76 Memphis Away W 102-92
12/19 174 Samford Home W 83-70
12/22 164 Wake Forest Home W 83-64
12/29 335 Tennessee Tech Home W 96-53
1/5 94 Georgia Home W 96-50
1/8 71 Missouri Away W 87-63
1/12 40 Florida Away W 78-67
1/15 78 Arkansas Home W 106-87
1/19 49 Alabama Home W 71-68
1/23 106 Vanderbilt Away 91.7%
1/26 84 West Virginia Home 93.8%
1/29 91 South Carolina Away 89.2%
2/2 122 Texas A&M Away 91.7%
2/5 71 Missouri Home 93.8%
2/9 40 Florida Home 90.6%
2/13 91 South Carolina Home 96.4%
2/16 8 Kentucky Away 54.4%
2/19 106 Vanderbilt Home 97.1%
2/23 16 LSU Away 60.1%
2/27 23 Mississippi Away 61.5%
3/2 8 Kentucky Home 79.4%
3/5 28 Mississippi St Home 85.4%
3/9 20 Auburn Away 58.2%