Tennessee Volunteers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Tennessee Volunteers. All of these projections for Tennessee are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

Tennessee Record and Rankings

Record: 26-9
Projected Final Record: 26.0-9.0

SEC Conference Record: 15-6
Projected Final SEC Record: 15.0-6.0
Projected Final Rank in the SEC: 2

Tennessee Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 12
RPI Rank: 8
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 3 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 6-7 5-1 11-0 3-0
Win % by Tier 0.462 0.833 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Tennessee Volunteers a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Tennessee’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 18.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 63.8%
NCAA #4 Seed 14.8%
NCAA #5 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Tennessee Volunteers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Tennessee Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 328 Presbyterian Home W 88-53
11/14 257 High Point Home W 84-53
11/22 6 Purdue Nassau, Bahamas W 78-75
11/23 2 Villanova Nassau, Bahamas L 76-85
11/24 38 NC State Nassau, Bahamas W 67-58
11/29 156 Mercer Home W 84-60
12/3 114 Georgia Tech Away W 77-70
12/9 150 Lipscomb Home W 81-71
12/17 10 North Carolina Home L 73-78
12/20 104 Furman Home W 66-61
12/23 115 Wake Forest Away W 79-60
12/30 24 Arkansas Away L 93-95
1/2 14 Auburn Home L 84-94
1/6 17 Kentucky Home W 76-65
1/9 86 Vanderbilt Away W 92-84
1/13 26 Texas A&M Home W 75-62
1/17 42 Missouri Away L 55-59
1/20 68 South Carolina Away W 70-63
1/23 86 Vanderbilt Home W 67-62
1/27 92 Iowa St Away W 68-45
1/31 62 LSU Home W 84-61
2/3 103 Mississippi Home W 94-61
2/6 17 Kentucky Away W 61-59
2/10 49 Alabama Away L 50-78
2/13 68 South Carolina Home W 70-67
2/17 58 Georgia Away L 62-73
2/21 23 Florida Home W 62-57
2/24 103 Mississippi Away W 73-65
2/27 51 Mississippi St Away W 76-54
3/3 58 Georgia Home W 66-61
3/9 51 Mississippi St St. Louis, MO W 62-59
3/10 24 Arkansas St. Louis, MO W 84-66
3/11 17 Kentucky St. Louis, MO L 72-77
3/15 128 Wright St NCAA Tournament Dallas TX W 73-47
3/17 46 Loyola-Chicago NCAA Tournament Dallas, TX L 62-63