Texas Longhorns Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Texas Longhorns. All of these projections for Texas are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Texas Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 17.4-12.6

Big 12 Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Big 12 Record: 8.5-9.5
Projected Final Rank in the Big 12: 7

Texas Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 54
RPI Rank: 142
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 7 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 1-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Texas Longhorns a 81.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 12.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 5.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Texas’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 5.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 6.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 15.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 17.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 13.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 10.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 7.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 6.8%
NIT #2 Seed 2.4%
NIT #3 Seed 1.2%
NIT #4 Seed 1.2%
NIT #5 Seed 1.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Texas Longhorns. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Texas Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 299 E Illinois Home W 71-59
11/9 58 Arkansas Neutal W 73-71
11/12 227 ULM Home 93%
11/16 253 Citadel Home 93%
11/22 5 North Carolina Neutal 18.4%
11/30 118 Radford Home 83.8%
12/5 144 VA Commonwealth Home 85.7%
12/9 14 Purdue Home 46.3%
12/15 143 Grand Canyon Home 86.4%
12/21 71 Providence Home 66.4%
12/28 127 UT Arlington Home 85%
1/2 46 Kansas St Away 39.2%
1/5 44 West Virginia Home 58.8%
1/8 87 Oklahoma St Away 48.5%
1/12 29 Texas Tech Home 50.7%
1/14 6 Kansas Away 13.4%
1/19 74 Oklahoma Home 63.8%
1/23 59 TCU Away 39.2%
1/26 49 Georgia Away 37.2%
1/29 6 Kansas Home 35.5%
2/2 60 Iowa St Away 35.9%
2/6 83 Baylor Home 64.1%
2/9 44 West Virginia Away 38.2%
2/12 46 Kansas St Home 59.8%
2/16 87 Oklahoma St Home 70.3%
2/23 74 Oklahoma Away 43.1%
2/27 83 Baylor Away 43.5%
3/2 60 Iowa St Home 56.5%
3/4 29 Texas Tech Away 28.6%
3/9 59 TCU Home 59.8%