Texas Longhorns Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Texas Longhorns. All of these projections for Texas are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Texas Record and Rankings

Record: 16-11
Projected Final Record: 17.9-13.1

Big 12 Conference Record: 6-8
Projected Final Big 12 Record: 7.9-10.1
Projected Final Rank in the Big 12: 7

Texas Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 39
RPI Rank: 52
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 10 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 5-8 3-3 3-0 5-0
Win % by Tier 0.385 0.500 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Texas Longhorns a 88.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 10.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Texas’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #4 Seed 5.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 8.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 10.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 12.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 10.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 14.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 13.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 11.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 4.4%
NIT #2 Seed 4.4%
NIT #3 Seed 1.2%
NIT #4 Seed 0.6%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Texas Longhorns. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Texas Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 346 Northwestern LA Home W 105-59
11/14 286 New Hampshire Home W 78-60
11/18 165 Lipscomb Home W 80-57
11/23 29 Butler Portland, OR W 61-48
11/24 6 Duke Portland, OR L 78-85
11/26 13 Gonzaga Portland, OR L 71-76
11/29 344 Florida A&M Home W 82-58
12/5 128 VA Commonwealth Away W 71-67
12/12 20 Michigan Home L 52-59
12/16 152 Louisiana Tech Home W 75-60
12/18 190 Tennessee St Home W 47-46
12/22 40 Alabama Birmingham, AL W 66-50
12/29 11 Kansas Home L 86-92
1/1 81 Iowa St Away W 74-70
1/6 30 Baylor Away L 60-69
1/10 21 TCU Home W 99-98
1/13 61 Oklahoma St Away L 64-65
1/17 9 Texas Tech Home W 67-58
1/20 16 West Virginia Away L 51-86
1/22 81 Iowa St Home W 73-57
1/27 97 Mississippi Home W 85-72
1/31 9 Texas Tech Away L 71-73
2/3 37 Oklahoma Home W 79-74
2/7 26 Kansas St Home L 64-67
2/10 21 TCU Away L 71-87
2/12 30 Baylor Home L 73-74
2/17 37 Oklahoma Away W 77-66
2/21 26 Kansas St Away 41.8%
2/24 61 Oklahoma St Home 73.8%
2/26 11 Kansas Away 23.3%
3/3 16 West Virginia Home 47.4%