Texas State Bobcats Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Texas State Bobcats. All of these projections for Texas St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Texas St Record and Rankings

Record: 24-9
Projected Final Record: 24.0-9.0

Sun Belt Conference Record: 12-6
Projected Final Sun Belt Record: 12.0-6.0
Projected Final Rank in the Sun Belt: 4

Texas St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 128
RPI Rank: 116
NET Rank: 132
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-2 0-3 6-2 15-2
Win % by Tier 0.333 0.000 0.750 0.882

Our current projections give the Texas State Bobcats a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 99.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Texas St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Texas State Bobcats. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Texas St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/9 222 Air Force Home W 67-57
11/13 No Rank Hardin-Simmons Home W 97-52
11/17 111 Drake Away L 69-75
11/21 334 Cal Poly Neutal W 54-42
11/23 344 SC Upstate Neutal W 82-50
11/24 329 Portland Away W 91-68
11/28 237 Rice Home W 74-60
12/1 144 UT San Antonio Away W 69-68
12/5 280 TAM C. Christi Away W 61-55
12/8 286 Houston Bap Home W 90-80
12/15 162 UTRGV Away W 77-68
12/22 63 Arkansas Away L 70-73
12/29 No Rank Howard Payne Home W 105-29
1/3 118 Ga Southern Home W 73-70
1/5 93 Georgia St Home L 69-73
1/10 183 Coastal Car Away W 65-61
1/12 228 Appalachian St Away W 70-69
1/17 270 Ark Little Rock Home W 80-62
1/19 244 Arkansas St Home W 77-64
1/24 93 Georgia St Away W 81-68
1/26 118 Ga Southern Away L 58-74
2/2 147 UT Arlington Home L 77-84
2/7 228 Appalachian St Home W 74-71
2/9 183 Coastal Car Home W 65-57
2/14 244 Arkansas St Away W 84-74
2/16 270 Ark Little Rock Away W 67-60
2/21 165 ULM Home L 60-63
2/23 170 Louisiana Home W 64-62
2/28 243 Troy Away W 58-44
3/2 207 South Alabama Away L 63-77
3/9 147 UT Arlington Away L 73-81
3/15 207 South Alabama Neutal W 79-67
3/16 93 Georgia St Neutral L 46-59