Texas State Bobcats Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Texas State Bobcats. All of these projections for Texas St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/14/2019.

Texas St Record and Rankings

Record: 19-5
Projected Final Record: 23.8-7.2

Sun Belt Conference Record: 8-3
Projected Final Sun Belt Record: 12.8-5.2
Projected Final Rank in the Sun Belt: 2

Texas St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 105
RPI Rank: 110
NET Rank: 113
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-3 1-1 3-1 12-0
Win % by Tier 0.250 0.500 0.750 1.000

Our current projections give the Texas State Bobcats a 24.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 10.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 64.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Texas St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 11.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 9.6%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.4%
NIT #5 Seed 1.0%
NIT #6 Seed 5.0%
NIT #7 Seed 4.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.2%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Texas State Bobcats. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Texas St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/9 237 Air Force Home W 67-57
11/13 No Rank Hardin-Simmons Home W 97-52
11/17 119 Drake Away L 69-75
11/21 336 Cal Poly Neutal W 54-42
11/23 345 SC Upstate Neutal W 82-50
11/24 326 Portland Away W 91-68
11/28 208 Rice Home W 74-60
12/1 137 UT San Antonio Away W 69-68
12/5 271 TAM C. Christi Away W 61-55
12/8 290 Houston Bap Home W 90-80
12/15 157 UTRGV Away W 77-68
12/22 57 Arkansas Away L 70-73
12/29 No Rank Howard Payne Home W 105-29
1/3 128 Ga Southern Home W 73-70
1/5 112 Georgia St Home L 69-73
1/10 169 Coastal Car Away W 65-61
1/12 233 Appalachian St Away W 70-69
1/17 249 Ark Little Rock Home W 80-62
1/19 246 Arkansas St Home W 77-64
1/24 112 Georgia St Away W 81-68
1/26 128 Ga Southern Away L 58-74
2/2 154 UT Arlington Home L 77-84
2/7 233 Appalachian St Home W 74-71
2/9 169 Coastal Car Home W 65-57
2/14 246 Arkansas St Away 69.1%
2/16 249 Ark Little Rock Away 66.4%
2/21 167 ULM Home 75.7%
2/23 185 Louisiana Home 80.9%
2/28 216 Troy Away 64.1%
3/2 238 South Alabama Away 66%
3/9 154 UT Arlington Away 54.8%