Texas State Bobcats Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Texas State Bobcats. All of these projections for Texas St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Texas St Record and Rankings

Record: 14-3
Projected Final Record: 23.7-7.3

Sun Belt Conference Record: 3-1
Projected Final Sun Belt Record: 12.7-5.3
Projected Final Rank in the Sun Belt: 2

Texas St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 96
RPI Rank: 114
NET Rank: 107
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-2 3-0 9-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Texas State Bobcats a 18.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 12.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 69.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Texas St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 10.8%
NCAA #14 Seed 4.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.8%
NIT #2 Seed 0.8%
NIT #3 Seed 0.4%
NIT #4 Seed 1.6%
NIT #5 Seed 1.6%
NIT #6 Seed 4.6%
NIT #7 Seed 2.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Texas State Bobcats. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Texas St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/9 232 Air Force Home W 67-57
11/13 No Rank Hardin-Simmons Home W 97-52
11/17 122 Drake Away L 69-75
11/21 333 Cal Poly Neutal W 54-42
11/23 328 SC Upstate Neutal W 82-50
11/24 310 Portland Away W 91-68
11/28 251 Rice Home W 74-60
12/1 160 UT San Antonio Away W 69-68
12/5 280 TAM C. Christi Away W 61-55
12/8 242 Houston Bap Home W 90-80
12/15 206 UTRGV Away W 77-68
12/22 65 Arkansas Away L 70-73
12/29 No Rank Howard Payne Home W 105-29
1/3 131 Ga Southern Home W 73-70
1/5 71 Georgia St Home L 69-73
1/10 229 Coastal Car Away W 65-61
1/12 291 Appalachian St Away W 70-69
1/17 248 Ark Little Rock Home 86.6%
1/19 211 Arkansas St Home 85%
1/24 71 Georgia St Away 32.8%
1/26 131 Ga Southern Away 44.5%
2/2 233 UT Arlington Home 85.4%
2/7 291 Appalachian St Home 88.9%
2/9 229 Coastal Car Home 83.8%
2/14 211 Arkansas St Away 64.5%
2/16 248 Ark Little Rock Away 66.4%
2/21 162 ULM Home 71.8%
2/23 155 Louisiana Home 71%
2/28 183 Troy Away 59.2%
3/2 265 South Alabama Away 67.2%
3/9 233 UT Arlington Away 64.5%