Texas Tech Red Raiders Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Texas Tech Red Raiders. All of these projections for Texas Tech are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Texas Tech Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 20.3-9.7

Big 12 Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Big 12 Record: 10.4-7.6
Projected Final Rank in the Big 12: 2

Texas Tech Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 29
RPI Rank: 75
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 6 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 2-0 0-0 0-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000

Our current projections give the Texas Tech Red Raiders a 94.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 3.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 2.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Texas Tech’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #2 Seed 3.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 12.8%
NCAA #4 Seed 22.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 25.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 16.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 5.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 2.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.6%
NIT #2 Seed 1.2%
NIT #3 Seed 0.4%
NIT #4 Seed 0.6%
NIT #5 Seed 0.4%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Texas Tech Red Raiders. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Texas Tech Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 344 Incarnate Word Home W 87-37
11/9 330 MS Valley St Home W 84-52
11/13 239 SE Louisiana Home 98.4%
11/19 63 USC Neutral 59.9%
11/24 111 N Colorado Home 87.5%
12/1 105 Memphis Neutal 73.1%
12/5 314 Ark Pine Bluff Home 98.7%
12/12 342 Northwestern LA Home 99.2%
12/15 213 Abilene Chr Home 93%
12/20 1 Duke Neutal 11.7%
12/28 324 UTRGV Home 98.9%
1/2 44 West Virginia Away 47.8%
1/5 46 Kansas St Home 70.6%
1/8 74 Oklahoma Home 76.7%
1/12 54 Texas Away 49.3%
1/16 60 Iowa St Home 64.9%
1/19 83 Baylor Away 54.8%
1/22 46 Kansas St Away 48.5%
1/26 58 Arkansas Home 70.3%
1/28 59 TCU Home 70.6%
2/2 6 Kansas Away 17%
2/4 44 West Virginia Home 69.5%
2/9 74 Oklahoma Away 54%
2/13 87 Oklahoma St Away 57.1%
2/16 83 Baylor Home 77.7%
2/23 6 Kansas Home 40.5%
2/27 87 Oklahoma St Home 80.9%
3/2 59 TCU Away 48.5%
3/4 54 Texas Home 71.4%
3/9 60 Iowa St Away 43.7%