Texas Tech Red Raiders Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Texas Tech Red Raiders. All of these projections for Texas Tech are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Texas Tech Record and Rankings

Record: 15-2
Projected Final Record: 24.3-6.7

Big 12 Conference Record: 4-1
Projected Final Big 12 Record: 12.4-5.6
Projected Final Rank in the Big 12: 2

Texas Tech Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 8
RPI Rank: 25
NET Rank: 8
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 2 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 4-1 2-1 2-0 7-0
Win % by Tier 0.800 0.667 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Texas Tech Red Raiders a 94.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 3.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 2.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Texas Tech’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 2.8%
NCAA #2 Seed 16.4%
NCAA #3 Seed 28.8%
NCAA #4 Seed 16.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 10.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 7.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 3.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.4%
NIT #1 Seed 0.4%
NIT #2 Seed 0.4%
NIT #3 Seed 0.8%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.6%
NIT #7 Seed 0.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.2%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Texas Tech Red Raiders. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Texas Tech Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 337 Incarnate Word Home W 87-37
11/9 346 MS Valley St Home W 84-52
11/13 320 SE Louisiana Home W 59-40
11/19 126 USC Neutal W 78-63
11/20 14 Nebraska Neutal W 70-52
11/24 200 N Colorado Home W 93-62
12/1 89 Memphis Neutal W 78-67
12/5 282 Ark Pine Bluff Home W 65-47
12/12 330 Northwestern LA Home W 79-44
12/15 140 Abilene Chr Home W 82-48
12/20 5 Duke Neutral L 58-69
12/28 206 UTRGV Home W 71-46
1/2 93 West Virginia Away W 62-59
1/5 32 Kansas St Home W 63-57
1/8 22 Oklahoma Home W 66-59
1/12 39 Texas Away W 68-62
1/16 18 Iowa St Home L 64-68
1/19 58 Baylor Away 64.5%
1/22 32 Kansas St Away 57.1%
1/26 65 Arkansas Home 87.3%
1/28 27 TCU Home 72.3%
2/2 7 Kansas Away 35.5%
2/4 93 West Virginia Home 90.6%
2/9 22 Oklahoma Away 51.5%
2/13 74 Oklahoma St Away 66%
2/16 58 Baylor Home 85.2%
2/23 7 Kansas Home 56.3%
2/27 74 Oklahoma St Home 86.4%
3/2 27 TCU Away 50%
3/4 39 Texas Home 80.4%
3/9 18 Iowa St Away 44.5%