Toledo Rockets Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Toledo Rockets. All of these projections for Toledo are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Toledo Record and Rankings

Record: 25-7
Projected Final Record: 25.0-7.0

MAC Conference Record: 13-5
Projected Final MAC Record: 13.0-5.0
Projected Final Rank in the MAC: 2

Toledo Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 64
RPI Rank: 42
NET Rank: 62
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-2 3-1 12-3 8-1
Win % by Tier 0.333 0.750 0.800 0.889

Our current projections give the Toledo Rockets a 3.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 80.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 16.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Toledo’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 2.0%
NIT #2 Seed 2.6%
NIT #3 Seed 9.8%
NIT #4 Seed 43.2%
NIT #5 Seed 15.4%
NIT #6 Seed 5.4%
NIT #7 Seed 1.8%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Toledo Rockets. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Toledo Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/9 192 Oakland Away W 87-86
11/10 No Rank Wilberforce Home W 99-58
11/14 138 Wright St Away L 74-84
11/19 219 FL Gulf Coast Neutal W 90-62
11/20 170 Louisiana Neutal W 77-64
11/21 70 UC Irvine Neutal W 67-60
11/28 300 North Alabama Home W 80-59
12/1 285 Cleveland St Home W 80-67
12/5 248 Detroit Home W 101-57
12/8 142 Marshall Away W 75-74
12/15 235 MTSU Home W 84-62
12/19 181 Cornell Home W 86-70
12/29 126 Penn Home W 77-45
1/4 149 Ball St Home L 64-79
1/8 18 Buffalo Away L 80-110
1/12 282 W Michigan Away W 85-77
1/15 154 Miami OH Home W 71-59
1/18 171 Ohio Home W 75-52
1/22 112 Kent Away L 85-87
1/26 117 C Michigan Home W 76-72
1/29 154 Miami OH Away W 66-63
2/2 143 N Illinois Away W 69-55
2/5 132 Akron Home W 63-52
2/9 104 Bowling Green Away W 78-71
2/15 18 Buffalo Home L 82-88
2/19 155 E Michigan Away L 69-76
2/23 143 N Illinois Home W 57-54
2/26 149 Ball St Away W 80-72
3/2 117 C Michigan Away W 80-68
3/5 282 W Michigan Home W 76-57
3/8 155 E Michigan Home W 64-58
3/14 143 N Illinois Neutral L 76-80