Toledo Rockets Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Toledo Rockets. All of these projections for Toledo are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Toledo Record and Rankings

Record: 19-9
Projected Final Record: 21.1-9.9

MAC Conference Record: 11-4
Projected Final MAC Record: 13.1-4.9
Projected Final Rank in the MAC: 2

Toledo Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 109
RPI Rank: 77
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-3 1-1 5-5 12-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.500 0.500 1.000

Our current projections give the Toledo Rockets a 19.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 4.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 76.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Toledo’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 14.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 5.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 2.8%
NIT #7 Seed 1.4%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Toledo Rockets. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Toledo Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/11 145 St Joseph’s PA Home W 98-87
11/14 No Rank Ohio Northern Home W 72-62
11/18 154 Oakland Home W 87-74
11/22 49 Syracuse Away L 64-72
11/24 254 Cornell Away L 77-80
11/28 11 Kansas Away L 58-96
12/2 301 TX Southern Home W 71-69
12/6 302 Detroit Away W 89-86
12/9 113 Marshall Home L 87-93
12/16 133 Wright St Home L 69-77
12/20 333 Jackson St Home W 83-57
12/23 315 Cleveland St Away W 77-62
12/29 127 Penn Away W 85-72
1/2 79 Buffalo Away L 94-104
1/5 247 Akron Home W 67-65
1/9 160 W Michigan Home W 84-61
1/13 188 C Michigan Away W 93-82
1/16 210 Ohio Away W 91-57
1/20 196 Kent Home W 72-65
1/23 160 W Michigan Away W 85-81
1/27 189 Bowling Green Home W 101-75
1/30 118 Ball St Home L 63-75
2/3 247 Akron Away W 77-56
2/6 234 N Illinois Home W 82-77
2/9 194 Miami OH Away W 73-67
2/13 210 Ohio Home W 82-74
2/17 118 Ball St Away L 71-99
2/20 177 E Michigan Away L 79-85
2/24 188 C Michigan Home 77.7%
2/27 234 N Illinois Away 64.5%
3/2 177 E Michigan Home 72.3%