Toledo Rockets Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Toledo Rockets. All of these projections for Toledo are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Toledo Record and Rankings

Record: 14-3
Projected Final Record: 23.0-8.0

MAC Conference Record: 2-2
Projected Final MAC Record: 11.0-7.0
Projected Final Rank in the MAC: 3

Toledo Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 75
RPI Rank: 71
NET Rank: 73
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-1 0-0 4-2 8-0
Win % by Tier 0.500 0.000 0.667 1.000

Our current projections give the Toledo Rockets a 22.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 46.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 31.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Toledo’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 8.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 3.6%
NCAA #14 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.6%
NIT #1 Seed 5.4%
NIT #2 Seed 7.2%
NIT #3 Seed 9.4%
NIT #4 Seed 9.2%
NIT #5 Seed 7.6%
NIT #6 Seed 5.8%
NIT #7 Seed 1.4%
NIT #8 Seed 0.2%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Toledo Rockets. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Toledo Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/9 223 Oakland Away W 87-86
11/10 No Rank Wilberforce Home W 99-58
11/14 174 Wright St Away L 74-84
11/19 285 FL Gulf Coast Neutal W 90-62
11/20 155 Louisiana Neutal W 77-64
11/21 112 UC Irvine Neutal W 67-60
11/28 294 North Alabama Home W 80-59
12/1 300 Cleveland St Home W 80-67
12/5 181 Detroit Home W 101-57
12/8 110 Marshall Away W 75-74
12/15 323 MTSU Home W 84-62
12/19 220 Cornell Home W 86-70
12/29 136 Penn Home W 77-45
1/4 107 Ball St Home L 64-79
1/8 11 Buffalo Away L 80-110
1/12 246 W Michigan Away W 85-77
1/15 187 Miami OH Home W 71-59
1/18 147 Ohio Home 80.9%
1/22 124 Kent Away 56.5%
1/26 120 C Michigan Home 72.8%
1/29 187 Miami OH Away 66%
2/2 138 N Illinois Away 57.1%
2/5 145 Akron Home 76.2%
2/9 115 Bowling Green Away 54.4%
2/16 11 Buffalo Home 32.8%
2/19 167 E Michigan Away 61.5%
2/23 138 N Illinois Home 75.3%
2/26 107 Ball St Away 48.5%
3/2 120 C Michigan Away 54.8%
3/5 246 W Michigan Home 87.5%
3/8 167 E Michigan Home 80.4%