Troy Trojans Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Troy Trojans. All of these projections for Troy are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Troy Record and Rankings

Record: 12-18
Projected Final Record: 12.0-18.0

Sun Belt Conference Record: 5-13
Projected Final Sun Belt Record: 5.0-13.0
Projected Final Rank in the Sun Belt: 11

Troy Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 243
RPI Rank: 252
NET Rank: 257
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 2-2 3-8 5-6
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.500 0.273 0.455

Our current projections give the Troy Trojans a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 100.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Troy’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Troy Trojans. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Troy Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank Fort Valley St Home W 95-60
11/10 98 St Louis Away L 58-62
11/12 121 Pittsburgh Away L 75-84
11/15 114 Southern Miss Home L 66-81
11/18 287 Cent Arkansas Home W 82-77
11/24 300 North Alabama Home W 77-58
11/29 131 Austin Peay Home L 74-79
12/3 10 Florida St Away L 67-83
12/12 No Rank Carver Bib Home W 88-43
12/16 105 WKU Away W 87-81
12/21 139 UAB Away W 74-73
12/29 319 Ark Pine Bluff Home W 71-63
1/3 183 Coastal Car Home L 75-88
1/5 228 Appalachian St Home W 89-85
1/10 270 Ark Little Rock Away L 59-73
1/12 244 Arkansas St Away W 90-85
1/17 118 Ga Southern Home L 82-90
1/19 93 Georgia St Home W 77-75
1/24 165 ULM Away L 69-75
1/26 170 Louisiana Away L 81-86
2/2 207 South Alabama Away L 75-81
2/7 270 Ark Little Rock Home L 70-84
2/9 244 Arkansas St Home W 84-79
2/13 93 Georgia St Away L 63-77
2/15 118 Ga Southern Away L 51-76
2/23 207 South Alabama Home L 52-68
2/28 128 Texas St Home L 44-58
3/2 147 UT Arlington Home L 66-79
3/7 228 Appalachian St Away L 64-72
3/9 183 Coastal Car Away W 74-67