Troy Trojans Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Troy Trojans. All of these projections for Troy are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Troy Record and Rankings

Record: 10-8
Projected Final Record: 15.9-14.1

Sun Belt Conference Record: 3-3
Projected Final Sun Belt Record: 8.9-9.1
Projected Final Rank in the Sun Belt: 6

Troy Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 183
RPI Rank: 175
NET Rank: 212
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 2-2 2-2 4-2
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.500 0.500 0.667

Our current projections give the Troy Trojans a 3.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 1.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 94.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Troy’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 1.8%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 1.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Troy Trojans. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Troy Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank Fort Valley St Home W 95-60
11/10 64 St Louis Away L 58-62
11/12 65 Pittsburgh Away L 75-84
11/15 157 Southern Miss Home L 66-81
11/18 237 Cent Arkansas Home W 82-77
11/24 290 North Alabama Home W 77-58
11/29 134 Austin Peay Home L 74-79
12/3 27 Florida St Away L 67-83
12/12 No Rank Carver Bib Home W 88-43
12/16 127 WKU Away W 87-81
12/21 155 UAB Away W 74-73
12/29 304 Ark Pine Bluff Home W 71-63
1/3 214 Coastal Car Home L 75-88
1/5 303 Appalachian St Home W 89-85
1/10 266 Ark Little Rock Away L 59-73
1/12 228 Arkansas St Away W 90-85
1/17 124 Ga Southern Home L 82-90
1/19 87 Georgia St Home W 77-75
1/24 149 ULM Away 29.4%
1/26 167 Louisiana Away 32.8%
2/2 276 South Alabama Away 58.2%
2/7 266 Ark Little Rock Home 76.7%
2/9 228 Arkansas St Home 72.8%
2/14 87 Georgia St Away 16.5%
2/15 124 Ga Southern Away 20.1%
2/23 276 South Alabama Home 78.2%
2/28 98 Texas St Home 38.5%
3/2 209 UT Arlington Home 66.4%
3/7 303 Appalachian St Away 59.8%
3/9 214 Coastal Car Away 43.9%