UALR Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the UALR. All of these projections for Ark Little Rock are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Ark Little Rock Record and Rankings

Record: 10-21
Projected Final Record: 10.0-21.0

Sun Belt Conference Record: 5-13
Projected Final Sun Belt Record: 5.0-13.0
Projected Final Rank in the Sun Belt: 12

Ark Little Rock Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 270
RPI Rank: 284
NET Rank: 236
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-3 0-4 2-7 6-7
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.222 0.462

Our current projections give the UALR a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 100.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Ark Little Rock’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UALR. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Ark Little Rock Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/8 No Rank SE Oklahoma Home W 101-92
11/13 314 Tennessee St Away W 83-67
11/16 28 Nevada Away L 59-87
11/19 107 Tulsa Away L 78-88
11/23 301 Howard Home W 97-76
11/24 319 Ark Pine Bluff Neutral L 66-75
11/28 287 Cent Arkansas Away L 65-78
12/1 158 Sam Houston St Home W 79-52
12/4 153 Bradley Home L 62-68
12/8 287 Cent Arkansas Home L 82-85
12/11 No Rank Miles Home W 67-47
12/19 58 Memphis Away L 89-99
12/22 68 Georgetown Away L 94-102
1/3 165 ULM Away L 84-97
1/5 170 Louisiana Away L 61-75
1/10 243 Troy Home W 73-59
1/12 207 South Alabama Home W 91-62
1/17 128 Texas St Away L 62-80
1/19 147 UT Arlington Away L 73-82
1/24 183 Coastal Car Home L 71-72
1/26 228 Appalachian St Home L 73-77
2/2 244 Arkansas St Home L 83-84
2/7 243 Troy Away W 84-70
2/9 207 South Alabama Away W 73-68
2/14 147 UT Arlington Home W 56-52
2/16 128 Texas St Home L 60-67
2/23 244 Arkansas St Away L 65-72
2/28 118 Ga Southern Away L 66-81
3/2 93 Georgia St Away L 70-83
3/7 170 Louisiana Home L 72-77
3/9 165 ULM Home L 62-79