UALR Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the UALR. All of these projections for Ark Little Rock are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Ark Little Rock Record and Rankings

Record: 7-12
Projected Final Record: 11.6-19.4

Sun Belt Conference Record: 2-4
Projected Final Sun Belt Record: 6.6-11.4
Projected Final Rank in the Sun Belt: 10

Ark Little Rock Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 266
RPI Rank: 282
NET Rank: 233
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 0-4 0-3 5-3
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.625

Our current projections give the UALR a 0.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 99.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Ark Little Rock’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.2%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UALR. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Ark Little Rock Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/8 No Rank SE Oklahoma Home W 101-92
11/13 321 Tennessee St Away W 83-67
11/16 22 Nevada Away L 59-87
11/19 104 Tulsa Away L 78-88
11/23 322 Howard Home W 97-76
11/24 304 Ark Pine Bluff Home L 66-75
11/28 237 Cent Arkansas Away L 65-78
12/1 182 Sam Houston St Home W 79-52
12/4 218 Bradley Home L 62-68
12/8 237 Cent Arkansas Home L 82-85
12/11 No Rank Miles Home W 67-47
12/19 76 Memphis Away L 89-99
12/22 86 Georgetown Away L 94-102
1/3 149 ULM Away L 84-97
1/5 167 Louisiana Away L 61-75
1/10 183 Troy Home W 73-59
1/12 276 South Alabama Home W 91-62
1/17 98 Texas St Away L 62-80
1/19 209 UT Arlington Away L 73-82
1/24 214 Coastal Car Home 46%
1/26 303 Appalachian St Home 66%
2/2 228 Arkansas St Home 56.5%
2/7 183 Troy Away 23.3%
2/9 276 South Alabama Away 43.3%
2/14 209 UT Arlington Home 51.5%
2/16 98 Texas St Home 27.5%
2/23 228 Arkansas St Away 39.2%
2/28 124 Ga Southern Away 14.3%
3/2 87 Georgia St Away 10%
3/7 167 Louisiana Home 39.5%
3/9 149 ULM Home 38.2%