UC Davis Aggies Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the UC Davis Aggies. All of these projections for UC Davis are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

UC Davis Record and Rankings

Record: 4-12
Projected Final Record: 10.6-19.4

Big West Conference Record: 0-2
Projected Final Big West Record: 6.6-9.4
Projected Final Rank in the Big West: 7

UC Davis Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 274
RPI Rank: 293
NET Rank: 288
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 0-2 0-7 2-1
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.667

Our current projections give the UC Davis Aggies a 3.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 97.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account UC Davis’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 3.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UC Davis Aggies. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

UC Davis Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 52 San Francisco Home L 42-76
11/9 129 San Diego Home L 57-76
11/12 65 Arkansas Away L 58-81
11/17 280 TAM C. Christi Neutal W 57-54
11/18 233 UT Arlington Away L 59-68
11/20 303 CS Sacramento Neutral L 55-58
11/23 31 Indiana Away L 62-76
11/29 287 Northern Arizona Home W 73-57
12/5 138 N Illinois Away L 62-71
12/16 No Rank Wm Jessup Home W 83-65
12/22 44 Arizona Away L 68-70
12/28 143 Loy Marymount Away L 59-77
12/30 126 USC Away L 55-73
1/5 No Rank Holy Names Home W 90-60
1/10 112 UC Irvine Away L 69-71
1/12 180 Long Beach St Away L 77-82
1/17 139 UC Santa Barbara Home 38.2%
1/19 333 Cal Poly Home 82.8%
1/26 152 Hawaii Away 16%
2/2 314 UC Riverside Away 54.4%
2/7 333 Cal Poly Away 58.2%
2/9 139 UC Santa Barbara Away 15.3%
2/13 273 CS Northridge Home 64.5%
2/16 180 Long Beach St Home 44.5%
2/21 254 CS Fullerton Away 36.9%
2/23 273 CS Northridge Away 43.1%
2/28 112 UC Irvine Home 35.5%
3/2 254 CS Fullerton Home 57.5%
3/7 152 Hawaii Home 41.5%
3/9 314 UC Riverside Home 76.2%