UC Davis Aggies Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the UC Davis Aggies. All of these projections for UC Davis are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

UC Davis Record and Rankings

Record: 11-20
Projected Final Record: 11.0-20.0

Big West Conference Record: 7-9
Projected Final Big West Record: 7.0-9.0
Projected Final Rank in the Big West: 6

UC Davis Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 260
RPI Rank: 289
NET Rank: 248
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-5 1-10 8-4
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.091 0.667

Our current projections give the UC Davis Aggies a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 100.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account UC Davis’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UC Davis Aggies. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

UC Davis Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 94 San Francisco Home L 42-76
11/9 102 San Diego Home L 57-76
11/12 63 Arkansas Away L 58-81
11/17 280 TAM C. Christi Neutal W 57-54
11/18 147 UT Arlington Away L 59-68
11/20 278 CS Sacramento Neutral L 55-58
11/23 45 Indiana Away L 62-76
11/29 304 Northern Arizona Home W 73-57
12/5 143 N Illinois Away L 62-71
12/16 No Rank Wm Jessup Home W 83-65
12/22 108 Arizona Away L 68-70
12/28 134 Loy Marymount Away L 59-77
12/30 120 USC Away L 55-73
1/5 No Rank Holy Names Home W 90-60
1/10 70 UC Irvine Away L 69-71
1/12 210 Long Beach St Away L 77-82
1/17 176 UC Santa Barbara Home L 58-69
1/19 334 Cal Poly Home W 75-63
1/26 186 Hawaii Away L 60-80
2/2 316 UC Riverside Away W 84-71
2/7 334 Cal Poly Away W 63-53
2/9 176 UC Santa Barbara Away W 61-57
2/13 269 CS Northridge Home W 76-59
2/16 210 Long Beach St Home W 77-73
2/21 190 CS Fullerton Away L 58-62
2/23 269 CS Northridge Away L 76-81
2/28 70 UC Irvine Home L 48-64
3/2 190 CS Fullerton Home W 66-59
3/7 186 Hawaii Home L 69-76
3/9 316 UC Riverside Home L 70-71
3/14 190 CS Fullerton Neutral L 71-75