UC Davis Aggies Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the UC Davis Aggies. All of these projections for UC Davis are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 12/17/2018.

UC Davis Record and Rankings

Record: 3-7
Projected Final Record: 11.0-19.0

Big West Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Big West Record: 6.9-9.1
Projected Final Rank in the Big West: 6

UC Davis Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 258
RPI Rank: 291
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-2 0-1 2-3
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.400

Our current projections give the UC Davis Aggies a 3.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 2.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 94.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account UC Davis’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #16 Seed 2.8%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 2.2%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UC Davis Aggies. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

UC Davis Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 37 San Francisco Home L 42-76
11/9 66 San Diego Home L 57-76
11/12 55 Arkansas Away L 58-81
11/17 269 TAM C. Christi Neutal W 57-54
11/18 254 UT Arlington Away L 59-68
11/20 227 CS Sacramento Neutral L 55-58
11/23 20 Indiana Away L 62-76
11/29 309 Northern Arizona Home W 73-57
12/5 183 N Illinois Away L 62-71
12/16 No Rank Wm Jessup Home W 83-65
12/22 49 Arizona Away 2.3%
12/28 72 Loy Marymount Away 6.6%
12/30 124 USC Away 8.2%
1/5 No Rank Holy Names Home 92.2%
1/10 74 UC Irvine Away 6.6%
1/12 209 Long Beach St Away 27.2%
1/17 148 UC Santa Barbara Home 37.2%
1/19 292 Cal Poly Home 71.8%
1/26 164 Hawaii Away 17.4%
2/2 308 UC Riverside Away 54.8%
2/7 292 Cal Poly Away 47.8%
2/9 148 UC Santa Barbara Away 14.6%
2/13 300 CS Northridge Home 74.3%
2/16 209 Long Beach St Home 51.8%
2/21 240 CS Fullerton Away 35.5%
2/23 300 CS Northridge Away 50%
2/28 74 UC Irvine Home 23.3%
3/2 240 CS Fullerton Home 57.3%
3/7 164 Hawaii Home 43.5%
3/9 308 UC Riverside Home 77.7%