UC Davis Aggies Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the UC Davis Aggies. All of these projections for UC Davis are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

UC Davis Record and Rankings

Record: 22-11
Projected Final Record: 22.0-11.0

Big West Conference Record: 13-5
Projected Final Big West Record: 13.0-5.0
Projected Final Rank in the Big West: 1

UC Davis Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 126
RPI Rank: 102
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 3-2 5-6 12-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.600 0.455 1.000

Our current projections give the UC Davis Aggies a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 100.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account UC Davis’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 64.2%
NIT #7 Seed 35.8%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UC Davis Aggies. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

UC Davis Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/13 118 N Colorado Away W 74-59
11/15 186 Pacific Away W 62-58
11/18 105 Utah Valley Away L 71-80
11/21 300 CS Sacramento Sacramento, CA W 64-47
11/26 80 Washington Away L 70-77
11/29 118 N Colorado Home W 56-51
12/2 159 Washington St Away W 81-67
12/6 186 Pacific Home W 71-67
12/9 No Rank Wm Jessup Home W 86-52
12/15 147 San Francisco Away L 61-74
12/19 34 Nevada Away L 73-88
12/22 221 Lamar Las Vegas, NV W 77-68
12/23 173 Radford Las Vegas, NV L 62-72
12/30 No Rank Holy Names Home W 89-62
1/4 148 UC Irvine Home W 64-53
1/11 275 UC Riverside Away W 75-65
1/13 144 CS Fullerton Away L 70-85
1/17 185 Long Beach St Home W 84-75
1/20 198 Hawaii Away L 72-77
1/25 330 CS Northridge Home W 63-56
1/27 308 Cal Poly Home W 80-56
2/1 330 CS Northridge Away W 63-56
2/3 185 Long Beach St Away W 105-104
2/8 117 UC Santa Barbara Home L 81-90
2/10 144 CS Fullerton Home L 66-68
2/15 308 Cal Poly Away W 92-84
2/17 117 UC Santa Barbara Away W 71-54
2/24 275 UC Riverside Home W 64-63
3/1 198 Hawaii Home W 70-59
3/3 148 UC Irvine Away W 90-84
3/8 275 UC Riverside Anaheim, CA W 70-66
3/9 144 CS Fullerton Anaheim, CA L 52-55
3/14 56 Utah Away L 59-69