UC Santa Barbara Gauchos Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos. All of these projections for UC Santa Barbara are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

UC Santa Barbara Record and Rankings

Record: 20-6
Projected Final Record: 23.0-7.0

Big West Conference Record: 9-3
Projected Final Big West Record: 12.0-4.0
Projected Final Rank in the Big West: 1

UC Santa Barbara Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 100
RPI Rank: 92
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 14 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 3-0 4-3 11-1
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 0.571 0.917

Our current projections give the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 68.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 31.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account UC Santa Barbara’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 1.2%
NIT #6 Seed 44.8%
NIT #7 Seed 22.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

UC Santa Barbara Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/11 187 N Dakota St Home W 85-66
11/15 209 Pittsburgh Away L 62-70
11/17 27 Texas A&M Away L 65-84
11/20 325 Pepperdine Away W 92-84
11/21 91 Montana Malibu, CA W 80-73
11/24 285 Prairie View Home W 69-66
11/28 140 San Francisco Away W 79-72
12/2 146 San Diego Home W 67-57
12/5 255 NE Omaha Home W 77-70
12/9 248 Montana St Away W 91-69
12/17 51 USC Away L 87-98
12/19 No Rank San Diego Chr Home W 87-69
12/23 289 CS Sacramento Away W 82-72
12/30 No Rank Pacific Union Home W 81-49
1/4 297 Cal Poly Away L 79-80
1/6 295 UC Riverside Home W 65-57
1/13 206 Hawaii Away L 76-77
1/17 142 CS Fullerton Home W 83-64
1/20 156 UC Irvine Home W 70-58
1/25 142 CS Fullerton Away W 70-65
1/27 295 UC Riverside Away W 76-69
2/1 206 Hawaii Home W 84-82
2/3 328 CS Northridge Home W 75-51
2/8 126 UC Davis Away W 90-81
2/15 186 Long Beach St Away W 80-70
2/17 126 UC Davis Home L 54-71
2/22 156 UC Irvine Away 47.8%
2/24 328 CS Northridge Away 80.6%
3/1 186 Long Beach St Home 81.6%
3/3 297 Cal Poly Home 92%