UC Santa Barbara Gauchos Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos. All of these projections for UC Santa Barbara are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

UC Santa Barbara Record and Rankings

Record: 13-3
Projected Final Record: 21.9-8.1

Big West Conference Record: 2-0
Projected Final Big West Record: 10.9-5.1
Projected Final Rank in the Big West: 2

UC Santa Barbara Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 139
RPI Rank: 144
NET Rank: 144
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-0 2-1 9-1
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.667 0.900

Our current projections give the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos a 21.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 77.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account UC Santa Barbara’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #14 Seed 12.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 6.4%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.4%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

UC Santa Barbara Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 307 Wyoming Away W 76-66
11/11 249 N Dakota St Away L 63-82
11/13 No Rank Cal Lutheran Home W 88-32
11/17 250 Montana St Home W 88-69
11/23 289 Portland St Neutal W 76-69
11/24 335 Idaho Neutal W 66-55
11/29 303 CS Sacramento Home W 75-58
12/2 41 Washington Away L 63-67
12/8 282 Ark Pine Bluff Home W 55-45
12/15 251 Rice Away W 99-89
12/19 194 NE Omaha Away L 74-85
12/22 244 Idaho St Home W 84-65
12/29 52 San Francisco Home W 73-71
1/2 No Rank Bethesda Home W 109-47
1/9 333 Cal Poly Home W 65-56
1/12 314 UC Riverside Home W 72-64
1/17 274 UC Davis Away 61.8%
1/24 254 CS Fullerton Away 59.8%
1/26 180 Long Beach St Away 50%
1/31 112 UC Irvine Home 51.1%
2/2 152 Hawaii Away 42.2%
2/6 273 CS Northridge Home 86.4%
2/9 274 UC Davis Home 84.7%
2/14 314 UC Riverside Away 71.2%
2/16 112 UC Irvine Away 29%
2/21 152 Hawaii Home 62.5%
2/23 254 CS Fullerton Home 82.8%
2/28 180 Long Beach St Home 71.4%
3/7 273 CS Northridge Away 62.5%
3/9 333 Cal Poly Away 74.3%