UCF Knights Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the UCF Knights. All of these projections for UCF are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

UCF Record and Rankings

Record: 1-1
Projected Final Record: 14.7-13.3

AAC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final AAC Record: 8.7-9.3
Projected Final Rank in the AAC: 7

UCF Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 131
RPI Rank: 275
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the UCF Knights a 8.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 8.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 83.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account UCF’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #13 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.6%
NIT #1 Seed 1.0%
NIT #2 Seed 1.4%
NIT #3 Seed 1.6%
NIT #4 Seed 1.8%
NIT #5 Seed 2.8%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UCF Knights. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

UCF Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 178 Rider Home W 84-70
11/11 180 FL Atlantic Home L 79-80
11/15 161 CS Fullerton Neutal 58.3%
11/24 145 N Kentucky Home 63.8%
11/29 57 Alabama Home 38.2%
12/2 89 Missouri Away 18.4%
12/8 275 Grambling Home 89.2%
12/11 168 Ga Southern Home 70.3%
12/16 320 Stetson Home 92.6%
12/21 157 Illinois St Home 69.9%
1/2 116 Temple Home 53.7%
1/5 160 Connecticut Away 45.2%
1/13 292 East Carolina Home 92.2%
1/16 88 Wichita St Away 20.6%
1/19 107 Tulsa Home 52.9%
1/23 215 Tulane Away 56.7%
1/27 105 Memphis Away 21.8%
1/31 160 Connecticut Home 69.5%
2/7 33 Houston Home 30.1%
2/10 210 SMU Away 56.1%
2/13 256 South Florida Home 87.3%
2/16 105 Memphis Home 47.4%
2/21 52 Cincinnati Away 15%
2/24 210 SMU Home 81.1%
2/27 256 South Florida Away 63.4%
3/2 33 Houston Away 8.3%
3/7 52 Cincinnati Home 39.9%
3/9 116 Temple Away 29.7%