UCF Knights Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the UCF Knights. All of these projections for UCF are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

UCF Record and Rankings

Record: 17-9
Projected Final Record: 19.1-10.9

AAC Conference Record: 8-6
Projected Final AAC Record: 10.1-7.9
Projected Final Rank in the AAC: 5

UCF Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 68
RPI Rank: 64
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-6 3-3 4-0 9-0
Win % by Tier 0.143 0.500 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the UCF Knights a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 6.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 94.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account UCF’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.2%
NIT #2 Seed 0.2%
NIT #3 Seed 1.4%
NIT #4 Seed 2.4%
NIT #5 Seed 1.6%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UCF Knights. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

UCF Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 171 Mercer Home W 88-79
11/15 281 Gardner Webb Home W 68-65
11/18 155 William & Mary Home W 75-64
11/23 42 Nebraska Kissimmee, FL W 68-59
11/24 16 West Virginia Kissimmee, FL L 45-83
11/26 64 St John’s Kissimmee, FL L 43-46
11/30 38 Missouri Home L 59-62
12/3 40 Alabama Away W 65-62
12/9 316 Southern Univ Home W 76-60
12/12 193 SE Louisiana Home W 61-53
12/19 312 Stetson Away W 74-55
12/21 338 S Carolina St Home W 89-64
12/27 88 SMU Away L 51-56
12/31 256 East Carolina Away W 59-39
1/3 112 Memphis Home W 65-56
1/7 75 Temple Home W 60-39
1/10 129 Connecticut Away L 53-62
1/16 3 Cincinnati Home L 38-49
1/20 287 South Florida Away W 71-69
1/25 17 Wichita St Away L 62-81
1/31 129 Connecticut Home W 70-61
2/3 22 Houston Home L 65-69
2/6 3 Cincinnati Away L 40-77
2/11 112 Memphis Away W 68-64
2/14 287 South Florida Home W 72-57
2/17 88 SMU Home W 52-37
2/21 99 Tulsa Away 50.4%
2/25 75 Temple Away 37.9%
3/1 17 Wichita St Home 37.2%
3/4 174 Tulane Home 85.2%