UCF Knights Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the UCF Knights. All of these projections for UCF are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

UCF Record and Rankings

Record: 13-3
Projected Final Record: 21.6-8.4

AAC Conference Record: 3-1
Projected Final AAC Record: 11.6-6.4
Projected Final Rank in the AAC: 4

UCF Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 48
RPI Rank: 42
NET Rank: 38
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 11 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-1 1-1 6-0 5-1
Win % by Tier 0.500 0.500 1.000 0.833

Our current projections give the UCF Knights a 52.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 35.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 12.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account UCF’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 2.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 4.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 6.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 12.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 11.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 9.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 11.8%
NIT #2 Seed 9.2%
NIT #3 Seed 5.2%
NIT #4 Seed 4.4%
NIT #5 Seed 3.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.8%
NIT #7 Seed 0.4%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UCF Knights. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

UCF Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 170 Rider Home W 84-70
11/11 189 FL Atlantic Home L 79-80
11/15 254 CS Fullerton Neutal W 68-52
11/16 164 St Joseph’s PA Neutal W 77-57
11/18 121 WKU Neutal W 78-62
11/24 109 N Kentucky Home W 66-53
11/29 50 Alabama Home W 70-64
12/2 87 Missouri Away L 62-64
12/8 311 Grambling Home W 70-45
12/11 131 Ga Southern Home W 95-88
12/16 347 Stetson Home W 90-65
12/21 172 Illinois St Home W 77-56
1/2 40 Temple Home W 78-73
1/5 94 Connecticut Away W 65-53
1/13 216 East Carolina Home W 76-65
1/16 97 Wichita St Away L 67-75
1/19 99 Tulsa Home 83%
1/23 305 Tulane Away 91.7%
1/27 89 Memphis Away 54.8%
1/31 94 Connecticut Home 79.9%
2/7 13 Houston Home 43.9%
2/10 104 SMU Away 56.1%
2/13 130 South Florida Home 84.2%
2/16 89 Memphis Home 78.2%
2/21 35 Cincinnati Away 30.5%
2/24 104 SMU Home 80.4%
2/27 130 South Florida Away 59.2%
3/2 13 Houston Away 20.1%
3/7 35 Cincinnati Home 54.8%
3/9 40 Temple Away 39.5%