UCLA Bruins Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the UCLA Bruins. All of these projections for UCLA are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

UCLA Record and Rankings

Record: 19-8
Projected Final Record: 20.4-9.6

Pac-12 Conference Record: 10-5
Projected Final Pac-12 Record: 11.4-6.6
Projected Final Rank in the Pac-12: 3

UCLA Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 43
RPI Rank: 47
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 11 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-4 3-3 7-1 7-0
Win % by Tier 0.333 0.500 0.875 1.000

Our current projections give the UCLA Bruins a 34.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 59.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 5.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account UCLA’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 3.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 6.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 17.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 18.4%
NIT #2 Seed 18.4%
NIT #3 Seed 16.6%
NIT #4 Seed 5.8%
NIT #5 Seed 0.6%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UCLA Bruins. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

UCLA Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/11 122 Georgia Tech Shanghai, China W 63-60
11/15 223 Cent Arkansas Home W 106-101
11/17 338 S Carolina St Home W 96-68
11/20 24 Creighton Kansas City, MO L 89-100
11/21 93 Wisconsin Kansas City, MO W 72-70
11/26 156 UC Irvine Home W 87-63
11/29 231 CS Bakersfield Home W 75-66
12/3 302 Detroit Home W 106-73
12/9 20 Michigan Away L 69-78
12/16 3 Cincinnati Home L 63-77
12/19 78 South Dakota Home W 85-82
12/23 28 Kentucky New Orleans, LA W 83-75
12/29 176 Washington St Home W 96-82
12/31 69 Washington Home W 74-53
1/4 90 Stanford Away L 99-107
1/6 191 California Away W 107-84
1/11 52 Utah Home W 83-64
1/13 95 Colorado Home L 59-68
1/18 107 Oregon St Away L 63-69
1/20 65 Oregon Away L 91-94
1/25 191 California Home W 70-57
1/27 90 Stanford Home W 89-73
2/3 51 USC Home W 82-79
2/8 18 Arizona Away W 82-74
2/10 34 Arizona St Away L 79-88
2/15 107 Oregon St Home W 75-68
2/17 65 Oregon Home W 86-78
2/22 52 Utah Away 43.1%
2/25 95 Colorado Away 59.5%
3/3 51 USC Away 37.6%