UMass Minutemen Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the UMass Minutemen. All of these projections for Massachusetts are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Massachusetts Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 12.9-17.1

Atlantic 10 Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Atlantic 10 Record: 6.1-11.9
Projected Final Rank in the Atlantic 10: 13

Massachusetts Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 218
RPI Rank: 32
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 1-0 1-0 0-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 1.000 0.000

Our current projections give the UMass Minutemen a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 99.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Massachusetts’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.2%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UMass Minutemen. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Massachusetts Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 277 MA Lowell Home W 83-75
11/9 340 New Hampshire Home W 104-75
11/13 147 Harvard Home 42.5%
11/16 329 Howard Home 91.8%
11/19 314 Ark Pine Bluff Home 87%
11/22 158 S Illinois Neutal 36.5%
11/28 254 Quinnipiac Home 73.8%
12/4 167 Holy Cross Home 43.9%
12/7 71 Providence Away 8%
12/12 116 Temple Away 15.5%
12/21 288 F Dickinson Home 81.6%
12/30 49 Georgia Away 7.4%
1/5 209 La Salle Home 48.2%
1/9 146 St Louis Away 20.8%
1/13 179 Dayton Away 29%
1/16 207 George Mason Home 54.4%
1/19 144 VA Commonwealth Away 20.6%
1/23 90 St Bonaventure Home 27.9%
1/27 47 Rhode Island Home 17.2%
1/30 209 La Salle Away 29.4%
2/2 76 St Joseph’s PA Away 8%
2/6 319 Fordham Home 84.5%
2/9 97 Davidson Home 33.6%
2/13 207 George Mason Away 35.5%
2/20 252 G Washington Away 43.5%
2/23 76 St Joseph’s PA Home 20.8%
2/26 179 Dayton Home 47.8%
3/2 175 Duquesne Away 25.7%
3/6 199 Richmond Home 51.5%
3/9 47 Rhode Island Away 7%