Umass Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Umass. All of these projections for Massachusetts are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Massachusetts Record and Rankings

Record: 7-11
Projected Final Record: 12.5-18.5

Atlantic 10 Conference Record: 0-5
Projected Final Atlantic 10 Record: 5.5-12.5
Projected Final Rank in the Atlantic 10: 12

Massachusetts Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 197
RPI Rank: 229
NET Rank: 194
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-5 1-1 1-2 5-3
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.500 0.333 0.625

Our current projections give the Umass a 0.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 99.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Massachusetts’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.2%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Umass. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Massachusetts Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 201 MA Lowell Home W 83-75
11/9 347 New Hampshire Home W 104-75
11/13 145 Harvard Home L 71-74
11/16 322 Howard Home L 63-68
11/19 304 Ark Pine Bluff Home W 92-60
11/22 148 S Illinois Neutal W 84-62
11/23 22 Nevada Neutral L 87-110
11/28 263 Quinnipiac Home W 69-62
12/4 184 Holy Cross Home L 78-82
12/7 80 Providence Away W 79-78
12/12 54 Temple Away L 63-65
12/21 268 F Dickinson Home W 85-84
12/30 94 Georgia Away L 72-91
1/5 275 La Salle Home L 60-69
1/9 64 St Louis Away L 62-65
1/13 70 Dayton Away L 67-72
1/16 137 George Mason Home L 63-68
1/19 52 VA Commonwealth Away L 50-68
1/23 195 St Bonaventure Home 57.3%
1/27 129 Rhode Island Home 39.5%
1/30 275 La Salle Away 56.3%
2/2 168 St Joseph’s PA Away 29.7%
2/6 235 Fordham Home 69.9%
2/9 69 Davidson Home 31.7%
2/13 137 George Mason Away 20.3%
2/20 249 G Washington Away 55.5%
2/23 168 St Joseph’s PA Home 50%
2/26 70 Dayton Home 32.8%
3/2 139 Duquesne Away 26.2%
3/6 229 Richmond Home 64.9%
3/9 129 Rhode Island Away 19.1%