UMBC Retrievers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the UMBC Retrievers. All of these projections for UMBC are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

UMBC Record and Rankings

Record: 10-9
Projected Final Record: 15.8-15.2

America East Conference Record: 2-2
Projected Final America East Record: 7.8-8.2
Projected Final Rank in the America East: 5

UMBC Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 263
RPI Rank: 296
NET Rank: 268
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-2 1-2 6-4
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.333 0.600

Our current projections give the UMBC Retrievers a 0.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 99.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account UMBC’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.8%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UMBC Retrievers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

UMBC Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 17 Marquette Away L 42-67
11/10 No Rank Shenandoah Home W 93-45
11/12 339 Manhattan Home W 75-52
11/16 232 Air Force Neutal W 77-72
11/17 209 High Point Neutal W 68-59
11/19 213 South Dakota Neutral L 52-58
11/24 222 American Univ Home L 69-73
11/30 109 N Kentucky Away L 60-78
12/3 348 Coppin St Away W 71-60
12/8 231 Drexel Away W 91-76
12/11 308 Towson Home L 76-80
12/16 285 FL Gulf Coast Home L 53-76
12/21 No Rank Hood Home W 86-65
12/29 86 Penn St Away L 52-74
12/31 No Rank Centenary NJ Home W 98-48
1/5 321 Maine Home W 61-52
1/9 190 Hartford Away L 64-66
1/12 218 MA Lowell Away L 63-74
1/16 336 Binghamton Home W 68-49
1/19 304 Albany NY Home 73.8%
1/23 80 Vermont Away 7.8%
1/26 345 New Hampshire Away 66.4%
1/30 102 Stony Brook Home 34.7%
2/6 190 Hartford Home 48.2%
2/10 321 Maine Away 55.1%
2/13 336 Binghamton Away 58.8%
2/16 218 MA Lowell Home 54.4%
2/21 80 Vermont Home 28.8%
2/23 304 Albany NY Away 48.2%
2/27 102 Stony Brook Away 13%
3/2 345 New Hampshire Home 87%