UMBC Retrievers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the UMBC Retrievers. All of these projections for UMBC are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

UMBC Record and Rankings

Record: 25-11
Projected Final Record: 25.0-11.0

America East Conference Record: 15-4
Projected Final America East Record: 15.0-4.0
Projected Final Rank in the America East: 2

UMBC Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 161
RPI Rank: 112
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 16 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-3 0-2 5-3 15-2
Win % by Tier 0.250 0.000 0.625 0.882

Our current projections give the UMBC Retrievers a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account UMBC’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #16 Seed 99.4%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UMBC Retrievers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

UMBC Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 98 SMU Away L 67-78
11/12 16 Arizona Away L 78-103
11/16 No Rank Central Penn Home W 93-62
11/19 213 Colgate Away L 88-93
11/23 342 Chicago St Home W 84-73
11/24 183 Nicholls St Home W 89-88
11/27 No Rank Shenandoah Home W 88-59
12/1 286 Army Charleston, SC L 70-81
12/2 294 Citadel Away W 98-72
12/6 351 Delaware St Away W 81-60
12/9 169 Towson Away L 65-78
12/12 347 Coppin St Home W 81-74
12/17 135 N Kentucky Home W 76-75
12/29 57 Maryland Away L 45-66
12/31 No Rank Centenary NJ Home W 85-41
1/3 311 New Hampshire Home W 71-67
1/6 84 Vermont Away L 56-71
1/10 336 Maine Away W 72-67
1/13 306 MA Lowell Away W 89-62
1/15 201 Hartford Home W 78-56
1/21 172 Albany NY Away L 39-83
1/24 322 Binghamton Home W 69-57
1/27 336 Maine Home W 86-74
1/31 235 Stony Brook Away W 67-63
2/3 84 Vermont Home L 53-81
2/8 322 Binghamton Away W 78-68
2/11 311 New Hampshire Away W 68-59
2/18 172 Albany NY Home W 68-60
2/21 235 Stony Brook Home L 57-64
2/24 306 MA Lowell Home W 83-75
2/27 201 Hartford Away W 62-53
3/3 306 MA Lowell Home W 89-77
3/6 201 Hartford Home W 75-60
3/10 84 Vermont Away W 65-62
3/16 1 Virginia NCAA Tournament Charlotte NC W 74-54
3/18 25 Kansas St NCAA Tournament L 43-50